Tesco is likely to report cooler UK sales growth than the City expects when it updates next month, according to Citi, though the broker is sticking with its positive call on the shares.
The supermarket, Britain's largest grocer, publishes half-year results on 8 October.
Citi forecasts second-quarter UK like-for-like sales, which strip out new space, up 1.4%, well below the 2.2% the wider market is pencilling in and a slowdown from 1.8% in the first quarter.
The broker puts the softness down to weaker food inflation, running at 2.3% over the 12 weeks to 6 September, and a downbeat consumer mood.
Its forecast sits below the 1.7% total sales growth that Worldpanel data recorded for Tesco over the same period.
Elsewhere the picture is mixed.
In the Republic of Ireland, Citi sees like-for-like sales up 3.4% on continued strong volumes, just shy of the 3.7% consensus.
Booker, the wholesale arm, is expected to lag, with sales down 2.8% against a tough backdrop for catering and the loss of a major national account flagged at Christmas.
In central and eastern Europe, Citi looks for growth of 1.2%.
Despite the softer top line, the broker's forecast for first-half group operating profit is unchanged at £1.73 billion, in line with consensus.
Citi reiterated its buy rating and a price target of 545p.
The note underlines a familiar tension for Tesco: steady profits and market share gains set against the drag of falling inflation, which flatters sales growth on the way up and weighs on it as it fades.
