Author stories Proactiveinvestors Author stories RSS feed en Tue, 22 Aug 2017 02:49:50 +0100 Genera CMS (Proactiveinvestors) (Proactiveinvestors) Tango Mining takes control at Oena, and is now planning further expansion in Africa Mon, 21 Aug 2017 11:08:00 +0100 Cadence in talks to sell Bacanora stake, details funding update for Yangibana partner Mon, 21 Aug 2017 14:40:00 +0100 Savannah moves to 100% ownership of Jangamo mineral sands project Mon, 21 Aug 2017 08:40:00 +0100 Sula Iron and Gold raises new cash for Ferensola Mon, 21 Aug 2017 16:00:00 +0100 Rambler Metals boosts production and earnings, cuts costs Mon, 21 Aug 2017 07:40:00 +0100 Asiamet confirms resource base at Beruang Kanan Main Tue, 15 Aug 2017 08:02:00 +0100 Lionsgold reveals Jonnagiri feasibility numbers Tue, 15 Aug 2017 07:49:00 +0100 Cadence investee company Auroch completes second drill hole at Alcoutim in Portugal Mon, 14 Aug 2017 12:13:00 +0100 Anglo Asian Mining boosted by reserves and resources upgrade at Ugur Mon, 14 Aug 2017 09:14:00 +0100 Caledonia Mining maintains dividend guidance for 2017 Mon, 14 Aug 2017 08:18:00 +0100 Who will set the gold price this summer: Trump, Yellen, or Black Swan? Fri, 21 Jul 2017 20:43:00 +0100 Trump’s influence on gold beginning to diminish, as world tunes out Fri, 14 Jul 2017 13:16:00 +0100 US central bank back to cautious old self amid Trump fury Fri, 28 Jul 2017 15:02:00 +0100 The conflict between liberty and democracy will keep the gold price high for decades Fri, 04 Aug 2017 14:27:00 +0100 UK election shows era of Conservatives as natural party of government is over Sat, 10 Jun 2017 08:09:00 +0100 Western civilisation at stake, says Trump: gold tracks sideways Donald Trump has argued this week that the future of Western Civilisation is at stake.

If true, you’d expect a fire to be set under the gold price and immigrants to be streaming away from Europe and the US by the million, bound, presumably, for China and perhaps to a lesser extent India.

But when the content of the speech was leaked ahead of Trump’s actual delivery of it in Poland net immigration to the West showed no sign of reversing and the reaction of the gold price was muted, to say the least. It actually moved up US$3.06, to US$1,223 per ounce.

So, either the end of Western Civilisation has already been priced in, or Donald Trump’s views on it are not actually relevant to the decisions international investors actually make.

In the short-term, of course, the international investors are right. People have been talking about the decline of Western Civilisation as such at least since the days of Oswald Spengler.

It’s nothing new, but so far Spengler’s theories have survived Hitler and Stalin, and frankly you only have to walk the streets of London, New York, Washington, or Manchester to see that it’s doing a pretty good job of surviving Islamic fundamentalism too.

But Trump’s pitch is more nuanced and subtle than the intellectual misfire some liberals might at first take it for.

The location of the speech in Krasinksi Square in Warsaw is ostensibly designed to highlight the heroism of those who took part in the rising against the Nazis in the summer of 1944.

That sets it at the centre of an apocalyptic fire that didn’t end well for anybody, no matter how much Trump or anyone else paints the efforts of the Polish resistance as “noble in spirit”.

But evoking images of this kind of destruction actually plays well in certain Trump heartlands. Millenarian fear, or a belief that the end of the world is nigh, is central to the theology of the Baptist and other ultra-Reformed faiths that dominate small-town America and the Midwest.

According to them, the end of the world has been looming since the Zwickau prophets picked up the baton that Martin Luther had left lying around in the early 1500s and ran with it straight into the Peasants War.

But when the world didn’t actually end in Europe, the descendants of these cheery people upped sticks and emigrated to the North American colonies, and became known in a cheerful rebranding orchestrated by later generations as the Pilgrim Fathers.

So whether the main threat to Western Civilisation is Islamic fundamentalism, or North Korean nuclear weaponry, or government bureaucracy, or Mexicans, the important fact is that there is a threat, that it is God’s will that there is a threat and that key people recognise and articulate that threat.

Global warming doesn’t fit this bill particularly well though. For one thing, it’s too gradual. For another thing, it’s a threat articulated by science and which can be fixed by science, and scientists are neither crediting God nor asking for his help in the matter.

So, if you’re wondering why a terrorist bomb in Manchester or Mosul is more of a threat to Western Civilisation than global warming, one answer is to be found in the roots of the European Reformation and its transference to Middle America.

It’s also why North Korea is more dangerous in a world in which Donald Trump is President than in a world in which he isn’t – because the Christian apocalypse is what the faith of many of his supporters is built around.

What all this may mean for the gold price in the long term is interesting. It may be that the initiatives of the likes of Elon Musk  in driving progressive technology forward outweigh US electoral skittishness.

But it may also be that being left behind may sit increasingly ill with the people who originally believed that they were “chosen” and whose right to dispossess the original owners of the land they now live on was enshrined in political doctrine called “Manifest Destiny.”

It appears to sit ill enough already. But the real question for analysts of global political uncertainty now which be which way American demographics will carry government in the future, and if as predicted the progressives eventually win by weight of numbers, whether open internal conflict in the US can be avoided.

After all a greater willingness to engage in open conflict, reduced recourse to human reason and negotiation to mitigate that conflict, and a fanatical belief the correctness of the course chosen is not new in the tide of human affairs. And we’ve seen where it ends up.

For now the gold price is sanguine in the face of President Trump’s rhetorical flourishes. But it may turn, as they say in the American heartlands, on a dime.


Fri, 07 Jul 2017 13:47:00 +0100
Civil War, Gold and Donald Trump Fri, 18 Aug 2017 12:24:00 +0100 Long-term outlook for gold remains favourable, despite Fed tightening Fri, 16 Jun 2017 13:23:00 +0100 Global growth will continue to spur mining, but watch for political upheaval along the way Fri, 23 Jun 2017 13:53:00 +0100 IMF downgrades growth prospects for Donald Trump’s America Fri, 30 Jun 2017 13:12:00 +0100