In a note to clients, about “relatively uncontentious issues and arithmetic”, the Numis analysts said they do not “try again to call whether Ofcom will cut Openreach's price for '40/10' fibre access and hence (as the regulator agrees) hurt all-fibre deployment in Britain.”
They said, however, that they think the consensus expects no volume growth post an Ofcom price cut, which the analysts think is “unrealistic”.
The analysts also noted that consensus forecasts of pension top-ups required by BT have changed relatively little in the last seven quarters, which they think is “too bearish”.
They also said they think the consensus has ignored BT, noting that its turnaround in 'Public Sector' is near complete and that 'Business' is set to keep winning mobile market share.
Thus, the Numis analysts concluded, upgrades to consensus forecasts for BT are likely from now, and so BT's share price will recover strongly in 2018.
BT shares were lower, however, in lunchtime trading, down 1.2%, or 3.2p at 269.6p.