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A week in gold: An official bull market as tailwinds grow

“Gold is continuing to receive support from ETFs, where there is still no end to the inflows,” says Commerzbank.
Gold is up 20% this year

Gold has the kind of tailwind currently it has not seen since it hit its all-time high in 2011.

If not quite hip yet, without doubt the metal is not square any more.

Indeed, gold steamed through two major milestones over the past week, one technical and one fundamental.

The technical event was a golden cross appearing on the charts for the metal.  

For those who follow this kind of thing it was a big deal and marks the point where the 50-day moving average of the gold price crosses through the 200-day average.

As the name implies, it should point to a heady period of more upward movement in the asset the chart is monitoring.

What got the gold chartists even more excited was that the lines crossed when the 200-day average was also on the way up.

True, charts can be a bit hit and miss but there was no denying that other major event for gold last week, namely that for the first time since 2011 it is officially in a bull market.

The definition is a 20% gain since its previous low and at the current price of US$1,274 it has risen that much in 2016 alone.

Driving this has been the growing worries of equity investors.

With that and the rising number of countries now with negative interest rates, the appeal of gold over bonds has been growing.

A surge back into gold-backed exchange traded funds has highlighted this trend.

“Gold is continuing to receive support from ETFs, where there is still no end to the inflows,” says Commerzbank.

Some 19 tons has come in to gold ETFs since the start of the month and the broker notes, it can’t see the trend reversing soon.

“What is remarkable is that gold is gaining despite global stock markets remaining firm.

“The more robust US economic data again of late, which are driving up rate hike expectations in the US, have not been putting pressure on gold recently either.

Even the very strong non-farm payroll number on Friday barely caused a dent in the gold price.

“We have upwardly revised the gold price we expect to see by year’s end to $1,250 per troy ounce,” said Commerzbank.

Over the week, spot gold rose by around US$60 per ounce or 5% to a new 13-month high.


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