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I think we are going to see a major market crash....
Just a note for those of you who don't want to read about my life in ramblings above the site takes a holiday break and the next report is June 13th.
If you've lost money this month, it definitely won't be as much as investor John Morley lost this week.
He had £70 million staked in a share called Pursuit Dynamics (LON:PDX). They slumped more than 80% and he lost mega money on paper anyway, his stake now worth £1.5m.
Though I have a feeling nearly all of you would think: never mind about the £70m, I'll have the £1.5m that is left and be very happy with that thanks!
I think the lesson is beware of having a massive stake in anything that is risky, as you just never know. One statement and you've done your dough. Some statements come out of the blue like for example investors in a share called Lamprell (LON:LAM) lost tons this week after a surprise warning.
It will always happen and I always expect at least one completely unexpected statement a year that will knock one of mine for six.
I think we are going to see a major market crash.... if the Greeks win the Eurovision Song Contest this weekend.
Can you imagine? That would be it. Turmoil in the markets - the Greeks can't afford to host it next year.
The Irish are probably thinking the same thing - however they have a solution, put on the awful Jedward which should ensure defeat.
So I hope the Greeks made sure their song was crap - but obviously not too crap as if it is really crap, well then obviously it could win...
Well," Buy when everyone is fearful" (Buffet) worked yesterday, albiet possibly only temporarily. Though so far it didn't work today!
Fear continues to abound. Will the Greeks exit the Euro? Is the Euro finished? Are we all doomed? Is bloody Robert Peston back on the TV? Austerity or spend? Deal or No Deal?
All these unanswered questions leave us bemused, puzzled and unsure of what to do.
Very uncertain times today with meetings going on and the feeling the Greeks might be on the way out.
However at the seminar on Friday, as discussed with those who came (more on the seminar above somewhere!) it was fascinating.
Because every time I performed the various tricks I do to see if I can get an edge and see if a share price might be about to rise, I noticed nearly every time... one of the major market makers was snapping up loads of shares. Lots and lots of them at very cheap looking prices.
And given this market maker is pretty good, it was obvious as far as it was concerned, at least temporarily, as I said on the day, a market turn wasn't too far off.
One other noticeable aspect of the day was share charts themselves. Most showed the same thing: 1 - they all seemed very close to a previous support area. 2 - However if that support area gave way, very big falls awaited down to the next area.
So a summary of all that during the day was, it could soon be a good time to buy as a market turn could be around the corner however it's with a big caveat - watch out because things could still get a lot worse if the turn does not materialise.
So I suppose that links up with if a rabbit is pulled out of the hat re Greece, a rebound could be ours. However if it isn't we could see steep falls.
Also one gets the feeling in light volume there is a lot of background manipulation going on with professional money easily taking the money off the amateur.
All of which probably leads me to think one will have to be cautious this summer.
Over the last few weeks I have had a massive clearout (partly caution partly want a free summer) so for the time being happy to sit on a shedload of cash - this could turn out to be very handy because if we do get steep falls it gives the ability to buy very cheap stock.
And also I made lots of money this year and last - and I would really rather hang onto the capital created rather than worry about trying to make more. If the year ends as things stand now I would be perfectly happy.
And as those who came to the seminar saw, I am making some decent money using the DB super short (see my book) and FTSE downbets on the spreads. A few grand after today's steep falls,
However I couldn't quite resist the odd bit of bargain hunting with the caveat to clear out fast should the market tank more.
I bought a few Corin (LON:CRG) - it's a small but fully listed company that specialises in knee and hip technology.
What's interesting is that it has a new product or two that could just sell well and in any event it looks like it is going to make a reasonable profit and therefore it looks like a good one to just tuck away for say 6 months to a year and see what happens.
If its new knee product takes off it could do very well indeed and any contract or sales win could potentially be big for the share price because any hint of profits coming in ahead of expectations could see a nice shift in the share price. Also it tends not to move when the ftse tanks which is rather nice!
I picked up a few Smiths News (LON:NWS) at 94 live at the seminar....I like companies that are transforming an old business into a new business and it looks cheap. It's in a business in decline, delivering papers, but moving into new delivery areas and buying up companies in those areas, so interesting!
I added a few more Vislink (LON:VLK) at 27.7 to add to the positions well lower down. Averaging up I guess, bit dangerous in this market perhaps but it has come back a lot.
And I bagged a few Photo Me (LON:PHTM) at 36p, live at the seminar. Looks oversold and given it has a ton of cash and trades on a low multiple, looks bargain territory.
Facebook Arrrgghhh!! After writing about this over the last month as the best short you are ever going to get I was convinced I was going to make an absolute fortune shorting a company whose valuation should be nowhere near 38m dollars a share.
So early Monday I rubbed my hands all ready to get a lovely big short on. And then....
Bugger! None of my 5 spreadbet firms would take a short! No problem betting on it to go up though, surprise surprise!! Various excuses were made, apparently they say shorting will be okay after its first week.
Hmm, you almost feel they are saying.. think we were going to give you free money? Hah!
Never mind, I expect Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) will probably rebound and shorts when available will still make some money.
I've continued the spring clean...The last bit of opts went at an average 231 for a profit of £240. The Ocado (LON:OCDO) spread short has gone at 106 for a profit of £660. Vol spreadbet at 231 for a profit of £60 and I've had a lovely run with Aggreko (LON:AGK) but finally parted with it at 2126 for a profit of £4,840.
Which banks a total profit of £5,800.
Results from my biggest holding, Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) today. Bang in line, what a great company. Profits, dividends continue motoring up and by the outlook statement, another 10% on profits this year, then next year, things could grow very quickly.
It's everything you want from a long-term hold. A fantastic income and a gradually upward share price - together as long as the world doesn't blow up, it should deliver 15% or so per year. Possibly more. Not bad, and better than a Ponzi scheme!
So I am happy to continue to hold more than a quarter of a million quids worth of shares without any worries about it or even bothering checking the share price. It helps that in this case I have them mainly in share certs! I also luckily have an option to buy another 4,000 shares at 164p...!
Coastal (LON:CEO) is going to start to buy its own shares back, well undervalued now. Vislink (LON:VLK) shares have held their own quite well after some large buying last week. The brilliant Nicols stays steady around 7 quid.It is a lovely little long-term share. Hoping for an eventual bid there. Brought this one up at a few seminars. GB has taken a little hit on profit taking, however I think I'll stay with it. Long-term there is still more value.
Carpetshite continues to amaze me. It makes a tiny profit, a £45m debt and massive warnings. How can it be worth £400m? Crazy!
My two drug companies BTG (LON:BGC) and Vectura (LON:VEC) have held up reasonably well..both have a very decent pipeline. Costain (LON:COST) remains in a loss but it has support at 2 quid. Nice statement from kenz, however the market doesn't like the sector at the moment. I'm sure value will out here eventually.
Dialight (LON:DIA) has come back a bit though I have been patient all the way from 150p! as those of you who have to my seminars have seen from my accounts my profits in real life are something like £90,000. For the website profits are more than £50,000 - and of course there have been dividends on top.
Long-termer Carclo (LON:CAR) seems to be settling around 350-400 for now. I already trebled on it so happy there. Seems to hold okay as does IP Group (LON:IPO). IP has a more than 20% holding in Oxford Nanopore which has made the world's first hand held DNA sequencer, probably worth a fortune for the company. LOQ (LON:LOQ) reported trials in the US had gone well last week causing the share price to head back up towards the three level. Might stay here for a while but should remain a long-term winner giving me a treble.
So all in all, reasonably happy with the way I've handled things. Of course, with hindsight I should have sold stuff a bit earlier, but I don't mind, I never expect to get out at the perfect time. As long as in the end my losses continue to be less than the profits it's fine.
Goodness knows where we'll be when I next update. It would be no surprise if we had gone lower, or we had bounced back. I'll just try to follow things but feel relaxed with loads of cash and positions I can sell easily if I really have to.
