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The Naked Trader

Robbie has been trading full-time since 2001. His book The Naked Trader has become one of the biggest-selling finance books, reaching the top 150 books on Amazon. Trades made and published by Robbie’s have amassed profits over £600,000. You can read about his buys and sells daily on Proactive Investors.


Proactiveinvestors highly recommends that you read these books: Naked Trader 3The Naked Trader's Guide to Spread Betting and the brand new product, The Naked Trader Diary 2013.

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It's been an amazing year so far.....

February 22 2012, 7:36pm

Goodness me what a start to the year it's been! Late last year everyone was gloomy and expecting the markets to tank badly in Jan and Feb.

They've done the exact opposite of that and it's no surprise given most people lose and commentators talk bollocks most of the time - go against the two and you can usually win!

Traders often forget the market isn't interested in what happened recently, it's interested in the future and so far the market has spoken the future doesn't look so bad, whether they are right or not about that is another matter entirely..

It's been an amazing year so far, I have no idea how much money has come in but it's more than I can ever remember making in the shortest time ever with many shares in the portfolio putting on a stunning performance. Looking around the accounts they look overall to be nearly £175,000 higher totals than at the start of the year...

But ...  of course a profit isn't a profit till it is in the bank which is why I never take any credit on a trade for the site till it is safely banked.

Oh and Greece has been saved!! Though I suspect if you talk to the Greeks they won't see it that way.

Let's face it it's just sticking plaster but being the selfish traders we all are, (well aren't we?) we don't care about that for now cos it supports the markets for now and now is all we care about - right? 

The FTSE continues to hover around the 5900-5950 area not sure about 6000 however I would think it will get there but 6100  is going to be a massive test.

There's a lot of activity in the smaller oil shares with one or two bids going in, so a busy sector - however last time I saw this happen it wasn't long before there were sorry tales of burnt fingers as those buying at the top got sucked in and then spat out. Smaller oil shares are always a gamble: if you can't stomach the thought of a 50% loss overnnight, or can't afford that, be wary.

Indeed last time this happened it coincided with the market hitting a peak, so longer-term might be a clue to be cautious. 

Enough wittering nonsense from me to some trades. I made a whole heap of trades to continue to make hay while the sun shines including a few shorter-term ones. I cannot possibly list them or put them on the site, I would lose the will to live but here are the best of which we will follow for the site.

I hardly ever get invoved with housebuilding and the like, I really struggle with the valuations, net asset values and the rest of  it but I can't ignore the fact the sector is hot so I plumped for Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW) and picked up 20,000 at 46.6 targetting around 55p. I reckon I'll be out of there for 20%, well that's the aim! If the sector slides I hope to exit with a small loss.

As you know I am never afraid to buy shares massively higher than I bought them already.

IP Group (LON:IPO)  has been a massive winner for me, up 80% fairly quickly. I never mind topping up on winners even if they are already up a lot and I bought some more, 4,000 at 102  as I liked the breakout over 100. 

A brilliant announcement shows more upside to come, possibly up to 150 plus in my view. IP has a more than 20% holding in Oxford Nanopore which has made the world's first hand held DNA sequencer, probably worth a fortune for the company. Given this and other brilliant companies in IP's portfolio looks like a likely even bigger winner this year. A potential doubler even after the gains is not out of reach.

I love Nicols (LON:NICL) - a nice under the radar share no-one is interested and it just slowly tracks higher as the weeks go on so I topped up here too nabbing 500 shares at the then sell price of 616 using direct access. Targetting 700 plus on this now and hopeful of a bid from either Britvic of AG Barr at some future time, though tomorrow would be fine!

Carpetright hit 650 which was my cue to go for another short, so another fiver in at 649. I am losing on the original bet at 600ish. It's always dangerous shorting in an up market and even more dangerous in such an illiquid stock as tiny orders can push it up. I still think it's worth only half of what it is now but the market can be irrational for a long time and someone somewhere is working hard to keep it higher including "rumours" of a private buyout. (Why?!)  With the idea that someone somewhere can't hold it up this high foreever I'm taking the chance!

Another favourite short is Ocado (LON:OCDO), Made a fortune shorting these from 210 last year and over a quid they look like a short again. Rumours of a bid from Morrison looks unlikely to me. So in for a short again at 30 a point at 109. Targetting about 85p this time. 

I was previously a shorter of Blinkx (LON:BLNX) - making a few quid on the way down, now it's halved potentially it's about right so I bought 50 quid on the spreads at 75. 

I'm trying a shorter-term swing spread trade in Dignity (LON:DTY) - it tends to bounce off 750 so got a tenner at 755. Often it goes through 800 up to 840 is so hoping for exit around there. If it can't push through 800 reasonably quickly then will take a smaller profit. I would hope to exit pretty fast whatever. 

  Flybe flew past my target of 70 - often I buy more at a target but this time given its dodgy record it seems sensible to take the emergency exit so sold my 5,000 shares today at 71.05 for a profit of £907. And topsliced some small Car at 391.5 to close one website position which banks £3,397 while keeping hold of the main bulk.   

 I've taken some spreadbetting profits: Short term trade essar went at 136 (profit £360) Pace gone at 86 (profit £40)..the Pace sell might be a mistake as higher than that today on some news. Chime dinged its target of 250 so sold the spreadbet at 247 for a profit of £820 but kept hold of the shares themselves longer-term as I think 280 looks likely at some point. 

 That's a total banked for the site today of £5,524. 

 PORTFOLIO HIGHLIGHTS

Another great couple of weeks for me. In the main continue to resist the impulse to take profits and hold for more. 

Really there are so many going well I'm hard pushed to name the best ones, though I suppose the star award goes to  IP Group, mentioned above already.

 Recent buy Low and Bonar continues its good runbought it in the mid 40s and now pushing 65p .

E2v announced a new partnership with giant Rio Tinto - this bodes very well for the future and not surprisingly the shares have soared, could be nicely rerated up to 200 this year.

Greencore (LON:GNC) also has been going well, I'm sure funds are going to have to buy some as it's going into the Ftse indices in March.   It came up later on in the seminar on a scan. 

Gulf Keystone (LON:GKP) has zoomed up to around 400p. It's crazily volatile Hard to know when to grab the big profits building up here but a bid could take it higher still. I kind of treat it as entertainment. Afren is nearly up at target and goes well, could be one to topslice soonish rather than sell all. 

 

RWS (LON:RWS) has cracked 500 at last and begins to look very nice indeed!

 Coastal Energy (LON:CEO) continues to boom!  Now well more than officially doubled  - I have the tenner I was after but   this good news story just keeps getting better and better and I am now looking for well over a tenner here, perhaps up to 1400 now  .. I wonder with all the bidding going on this could become a bid target?

Second biggest winner long-term superstar Dialight (LON:DIA) has been moving higher this  but I have been patient all the way from 150p to 800 and as those of you who have to my seminars have seen from my accounts my profits in real life are something like £70,000. For the website profits are more than £40,000 - and of course there have been dividends on top. 

Another contact win for Innovation Group (LON:TIG) today which pushes it higher, a nice percentage increase there now. 

 Sporting bet has at last broken up and in excellent profit now . Gamble Filtronic has proved a great gamble and has come up with a nice 30% already but 2012 could be its year so holding fast! Also some good buying there. Could it be a trebler?

 SVG (LON:SVG)Group has proved an excellent trade up more than 40 points now and it shows little sign of stopping its rise for now.

CML put out a very decent statement and the shares are well higher, should be more upside. Alternative Networks has been a top notch share for me, again doubled on it and made  a lot of profit on this one but expect to continue to hold long-term for a decent capital gain and nice income too.  In the meantime some great dividends to come. It's also nicely defensive. Needs to break through 300 for further gains.

LOQ(LON:LOQ) produced another set of great results and even after its recent rise it still looks cheap. It has been a tremendous share in 2011 and another doubler. Potential for more in 2012 and has broken up to 250 for the first time, nice share and a good longer-term winner. Looking at a potential 3 quid and a treble now.

Yule Catto (LON:YULC) has soared in the last week and headed way over the initial target now pushes 215p   I still think a bid target potential here so I have stayed with it. An unsung long-termer in the portfolio is Aggreko, just continues going up over time, a lovely one! Bought at 11 quid ish and now nearly doubled at 21, fantastic share and another producing a very decent statement.

BTG (LON:BGC) reported more progress with its vein treatments, an inline report but lots of potentials in the pipeline and has bust out well over three quid since I have been away   and remains a nice doubler for me this year. A nice long-termer and another I'm keeping hold of. 

And Microgen (LON:MGCN) has been a lovely winner, first bought this one live at a seminar a couple of years ago and it's done nothing but rise and trebled for me. I reckon more to come.

So, all is brilliant right now. How much further there is to go is the big question and I don't have the answer. I'll do what I usually do and follow the market and if I miss highs on the way so be it.

Nakedtrader  was created after I left my full-time job as a finance editor for BskyB to trade full-time. I had been writing an diary page for its teletext service since 1998 and decided as I was leaving to transfer that to the internet.

These articles are simply a "diary" of my life, or what you would now call a "blog". I detail what I've bought, sold or shorted and briefly why. I use various spreadbetting companies and stockbrokers to carry out the trades. I ignore commission but also dividends and I reckon the two balance each other up.

So you should be aware this is not a "tipping" site and I do not consider myself, nor do I want to be, a "tipster". In other words tipsters will urge you to "buy" something - and they generally are regulated to do so by the FSA. I simply state I have already bought or sold something personally. Because of that I am not "regulated" - so I am not an authorised "tipster". I am simply a trader who states his positions.

That is quite a big difference. I am not allowed to give what is called "Individual investment advice". And quite right too - I am not trained to do so. What that also means is if you e-mail me and ask me anything along the lines of "Should I buy or sell this share?" I cannot answer you except to say it is your choice! Of course I am more than happy to answer anything to do with general market/educational questions.

You should understand I always have an interest, and sometimes a big interest, in any stock I talk about. For website purposes my buys will often be to smaller stakes than in reality. So although my buys are real enough, as are the prices, I can and often do buy much bigger stakes in the shares. I may also "top up" in shares without declaring it and I will  sometimes deal more often than I mention on the site - mainly because of time pressure, if markets are busy. So though the buys on the site are around the £5,000 mark I may well deal in reality is sizes of £10,000 - £30,000.

My reasoning for this is I simply do not want to encourage people to blindly follow me into something when they do not understand the potential risk. It's ok for me because I can afford to lose money I put into the market. It may not be the case for you.  I am generally a medium term investor holding my shares usually between 1 week and on occasions up to 3 years. Average holding time is probably about 3 months.

So one of my main messages is: don't be tempted to follow me blindly into my choices. Quite often, as I play momentum, a share I have bought may already be much higher than when I bought it, especially as I do not update every day. If you follow me blindly you may be buying at a much higher price and you may end up selling at a much lower one.

You should ALWAYS do your own research and come to your own decisions on share purchases. If you follow me into something and lose money, you only have yourself to blame and not me. You should learn about markets and understand what you are doing before entering them.

The most risky way of trading of all is spreadbetting, which I do quite a bit. You should carefully read all the warnings that the spread betting firms issue together with all the warnings in my books. And never, ever, play with money you cannot afford to lose.

The aim of this site is to entertain, and perhaps stimulate debate, and that is the condition of entry !I really hope you enjoy reading about my triumphs and mistakes, but please, just watch and enjoy my triumphs and learn from my mistakes. Consider this site as entertainment. If this is your first visit to the Nakedtrader website site, I thank you for visiting me, and hope you will find this site useful. 

After reading and agreeing to the disclaimer, click the "I accept" button below. Please remember, I cannot give any specific advice, as to whether you should buy, hold or sell any individual share.

"The investments and other products referred to on the Naked Trader website should in no way be considered "advice" to buy or sell anything.  Naked Trader information is given in general terms only and does not constitute personal advice to any individual.  Investors are responsible for formulating and applying their own strategies based on their own personal circumstances. Naked Trader recommends that you obtain independent financial advice from an FSA-authorised intermediary before investing money.  Information given in previous editions of Naked Trader daily updates may become outdated and should not be relied upon unless confirmed by recent comment