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The stats are if January is good the rest of the year is often strong
Another nice few days for me. However the FTSE is hovering around 5700 not sure what it's doing.
Certainly the 5700 area seems sticky and I guess rightly so, after all there is still a lot of bad news about.
But the latest downgrades by those rating agencies didn't do much damage so there is hope. I don't really care what the ftse does as long as my shares stay strong!
And how come just as things are going okay that is the exact time they make the downgrades?
And that all the downgrades do is make things even worse than they were already? What is the point of them? Let's ban ratings agencies!
Anyhow the stats are if January is good the rest of the year is often strong so one can only hope it works out this year...
Unusually, all the trades this time are spreadbets, my ISA is almost totally in shares right now and with nothing I am desperate to sell, spreadbets it is!
I noticed Afren (LON:AFR) breaking out very nicely so got £50 at 110. It wasn't long before I discovered why there was so much buying, as they soon announced a new oil find. Shame I missed a few points taking profits before but never mind. Almost impossible one to try and value but I like it when finds are announced and often with oilies it's followed by more good news so could be worth me sticking with it for a while. Profit takers are in at the mo but I might be interested in buying more on a dip.
I'm not one for bottom fishing (stop it with your filthy mind), however occasionally I do it (stop!!!) but only if I think there has been a real knee-jerk reaction down, if the company suddenly looks good value because of it, and if there is no chance it will go bust tomorrow. So two in a row came up this week.
Carnival's (NYSE:CCL) share price of course fell a long way because of the ship sinking - however I did think nearly 20% price fall was too over the top so I dipped in for 10 on the spreads at 1843. Of course it's quite risky but I would think the share price could easily recover by another 100 points. And it's not going bust. So I reckon i could take profits around the 2000p mark.
And Essar (LON:ESSR), a disastrous listing at near a fiver last year has lost a massive amount of value, down to 125p this morning - however looks value here so I got 40 on the spreads at 127. It's gone up a little and is appealing against the tax ruling that drove down the price.
My plan with both is the same. Both I expect to be very short-term and I will probably be out by the next update. I expect to stick on a trailing stop with each and let that decide the exit so if the share prices continue to rise I'll stay in them a bit longer. Neither trade is an "investment", just a short-term idea for some quick bucks and as I said something I rarely get involved in.
I re-bought some Volex, (LON:VLX) this time on a spreadbet for £20 at 228. Tried to buy some at the sell price but no luck. Could possibly be undervalued now after its drift down and perhaps a decent rise again this year from what could be near a low.
And I added some more Supergroup (LON:SGP) at 575 for a tenner spreadbet as I really liked the new break up over the 550-560 area and it's another one that could easily add another 100 points. Already nearly 200 points up from the initial trade.
I've taken profits in Gulf Keystone (LON:GKP). They were just too good and quick to resist it even though plenty of stuff about a bid at twice the price for but now I've banked at 281 for a profit of £2,380. It also kept knocking up at three quid and falling back so all in all seems sensible to bank though I missed the top by 20 points.
Right a look at how some things are doing:
Recent buys are mostly going well. That includes CML Microsystems (LON:CML) which could have a very good 2012, there are plenty of hints in the last statement we could see some interesting developments and some bigger buyers on the scene make me think something good is on the way here. It's trying to crack 230, if it can crack the previously sticky 240 could be a very bullish sign giving an eventual possible 300.
SVG capital (LON:SVI), Flybe (LON:FLYB) and Howden (LON:HWDN), all recent buys and all going very well. Not my usual type of share but after big falls it looked rather attractive and well supported around 2 quid so I lobbed on a spreadbet of £20 at 206. I'm targetting an initial 250 on it but I think there is potential for 300 this year.
Coastal Energy (LON:CEO) sticks nicely around a tenner which has now officially doubled and more for me - I have the tenner I was after but this good news story just keeps getting better and better and I am now looking for well over a tenner here, perhaps up to 1400 now - I've now pretty much doubled on the first buy not that long ago and nicely up on the topup. Fantastic share which reported yet more good news while I was away.
Second biggest winner long-term superstar Dialight (LON:DIA) continues to strengthen after the excellent trading update a few days ago. Well, I have been patient all the way from 150p to 750 and as those of you who have to my seminars have seen from my accounts my profits in real life are something like £70,000. For the website profits are more than £40,000 - and of course there have been dividends on top.
Thinking about taking the profits in the SportingBet (LON:SBT) trade which has given me a very lovely 20%,. It finds it hard to break 37. Gamble Filtronic (LON:FTC) has proved a great gamble and has come up with a nice 30% already but 2012 could be its year so holding fast! Also some good buying there. Could it be a trebler?
Nichols (LON:NICL) put out another superb statement and very good profits on that one now.
Alternative Networks (LON:AN) has been a top notch share for me, again doubled on it and made a lot of profit on this one but expect to continue to hold long-term for a decent capital gain and nice income too. In the meantime some great dividends to come. It's also nicely defensive.
IP Group (LON:IPO) is having a nice run since I bought it, looks good for up to 100 from here unless something not good happens.
LOQ (LON:LOQ) announced an excellent contract win today and has been a tremendous share in 2011 and another doubler. Potential for more in 2012 and has broken up through 200 for the first time, nice share and a good longer-term winner. Looking at a potential 3 quid and a treble now.
Yule Catto (LON:YULC) put out a good enough announcement, when the economy picks up this one is going to leap and I still think a bid target potential here. Some nice profits building on this one.
An unsung long-termer in the portfolio is Aggreko (Lon:AGK), just continues going up over time, a lovely one! Bought at 11 quid ish and now nearly doubled at 21, fantastic share and another producing a very decent statement.
BTG (LON:BCG) has bust out well over three quid since I have been away and remains a nice doubler for me this year. A nice long-termer and another I'm keeping hold of. It got approval for a drug today.
And Microgen (LON:MCGN) has been a lovely winner, first bought this one live at a seminar a couple of years ago and it's done nothing but rise and trebled for me. I reckon more to come.
Biggest three winners in the portfolio remain: (rough profits!)
1. Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) profit £92,000
2. Dialight (LON:DIA) profit £43,000
3. Microgen (LON:MCGN) profit £27,000
