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So may I wish all readers a very happy season of goodwill. If only that would last all year round
Welcome to my Xmas and New Year Edition of the website - this is the last update this year - I'll be back again with the first update of 2012 on Friday January 13th when I return from a South African adventure!
So may I wish all readers a very happy season of goodwill. If only that would last all year round. I know some of you have been with the website and before that Sky and Channel 5 since 1998 ! Thanks for sticking with me for so long.
I was even youngish when I started writing about shares and now youth has gone! Hey, well there is plenty to compensate. I'll try and keep the website going next year though to be frank it is tempting to quit. But, going once a week has helped reduce the workload so we'll see.
Thanks to some of you asking what present to send me for Xmas. The answer is please don't! Give the money you would have spent to a Big Issue salesman. They really need it. If you can afford it, buy a big issue from them for £20. It means a lot to them. And you know your money is going directly to someone in need. That's where a lot of the money I give to charity goes.
And thanks to all of you I met this year who came to seminars. I enjoyed them all and meeting you. Indeed I met a lot of very interesing people indeed, some very talented in their area of expertise. I hope some of you end up making some extra money via trading or investing, and one or two perhaps even into full-timers.
I also know a lot of friendships have been made at the seminars this year. Indeed I have made some friends and I know some trading partnerships have been established. Good luck to all of you - even though many of you had the stamina to stay on while I talked till late in the evening! I hope to meet some more of you in 2012. (Next seminar Jan 27th, see somewhere else on the website for details).
Just a note that as from Xmas Day I won't be able to answer emails promptly as I usually try and do, I am taking my laptop. However, if you ask me something I can cut and paste you like seminar bookings or the advfn offers that should be okay. If you give me your life story you'll have to wait till I return!
We're leaving after Xmas dinner for Heathrow and our plane to South Africa and we can't wait! Well, I could do without the flight but will hopefully be so stuffed I'll end up going to sleep just when you'll be watching the Downton Abbey Xmas special!
We land at Capetown on Boxing Day then drive around four hours to some friends who we're staying with for a bit, they have two kids near Christopher's age so that's fun for him... and my friend is a trader so we will have plenty to talk about....
Then we are off to a lovely hotel nearby that specialises in kids. We hope to do a safari, experience some adventures, I guess this one isn't a beach holiday!
We also are going to tour some vineyards and hopefully have some great food which you definitely get over there.
Towards the end we're driving back to Capetown for a couple of days by a pool to relax before coming back home and heading back to the... er ... dark and cold.
Goodness knows what else we'll get up to on this holiday but we hope to discover lots of new things and certainly see a few wild animals close up, preferably not getting eaten in the process!
Relatives are coming down for Xmas Day with us and then staying on here to spend some time in London and the sales... We also hope to convince grandad to paint Christopher's room while we are away which appears to have stuff written on the walls. Ahem.
We went to Westfield on Saturday night to see Arthur Christmas, a kids film with Christopher and what a great movie it was... plenty for kids and adults too... go and see. Very heartwarming but not schmaltzy.
Westfield was heaving, shops and restaurants, you wouldn't imagine we were going through hard times.
Plenty of shopping going on there - also an ice rink, it was all rather jolly.
What else? A school fair, carol concert and a nativity play - Christopher sang very well!
However I made a bit of a boo boo when I dropped him off at school on the last day. Being five minutes too early is always a nightmare as it means smalltalk with one of the mums usually. I'm terrible at it. Remember with small talk never tell the truth.
Three mins got filled with Xmas hols smalltalk but I started to feel desperate as to how the last 2 mins would be filled. She made a game stab at it. "Did you enjoy the carol concert?"
To which I stupidly honestly replied: "Standing in a cold draughty church for an hour really doesn't do it for me..."
She looked aghast. Quick man, pull yourself out of trouble. "Um, er of course the children's singing was absolutely delightful!" I added hastily. The gate opened, phew, I could leg it to the car and out of smalltalk trouble.
(If I was being even more honest I could have said there was an annoying woman sitting next to me with tedious verbal diahorrea syndrome).
We went to see Fulham beat Bolton... afraid Bolton were terrible .. they have one crazy fan who spent the whole game with his shirt off and it was freezing...
And both of us are off to watch Fulham beat Man U this week! Well, if we can get one of their players sent off anyway (preferably Rooney!).. we have great seats behind the goal.
The night before that we are off to one of the six theatres my sister owns in the West End, the Vaudeville for the press night of "Swallows And Amazons"
It's all about pirates so Christopher should enjoy it though he will have to stay up late... My sister has lots of good shows on at her theatres at the mo, see the website nimaxtheatres.com.
Because we're off to Heathrow Xmas Day afternoon we are pretending Xmas Eve is Xmas Day and having our Xmas dinner then.
Our cleaner is going to chuck out the tree so at least when we return all the xmas stuff will have gone.
I've had a very good year personally and really enjoyed it at a lot except for some visits to casualty!
Plenty of highlights. Among the standouts was a superb holiday to Florida and Disneyland which was simply great fun. The new year in South Africa was a delight. A brilliant week at a castle in Devon, and a long weekend at a music festival were among themain highlights for me.
I wish I could say the half-term visit to Tenerife was among the highlights but a tummy bug put paid to that.
Naked Trader 3 was published and I was really pleased with it - the feedback on it has been brilliant which is very rewarding.
Probably the highlight of the year was a birthday party on a boat with some close friends - the weather was sensational and it was a brilliant evening I'll never forget..,. and the next day some of us saw Fulham beat QPR 6-0 on another beautiful late summer's day.
Lowlight was getting a fishbone stuck in my throat and being told I would need an emergency operation. Lucky for me it fell out just before the operation. Phew!
Banging my knee when I stupidly tripped up running was a horrible week. In plaster was not a bundle of laughs but at least it's healed up now.
It's when things go wrong with your health you realise how little money matters and you concentrate on the very basics of life, which is staying alive!
I really enjoyed being a late parent again this year. Christopher brought yet more joy to my life.
I remember a lovely long summer where we were out doing things every night till dusk fell. He's a lovely lad - not academic at all but I'm happy about that. So many academics end up passing exams but then have awful lives.
So of course the best thing, spending time with my son was free.
AndI built up my money pot nicely which is rather good given I hope I never have to work again. However it is hard to know where to put money where it might be safe so next year I plan to use a lot of the money I made into buying a new property. We shall see!
Thanks so much for those of you who've emailed me telling me you enjoy my rants otherwise known as Naked rambling.
I never really cared if no-one read it as it's fun to get it off my chest, a bit like free therapy so thanks for reading...
It's been a terrible year for news. I have just never ever known such a relentless barrage of .. horrible news.
Robert Peston was on a lot which is always bad news. Of course we had the riots.
Worst thing I saw all year was streams of people paying for coffee using credit cards. We are still living on the never never and I am afraid it is my generation's fault.
Greed and the I want it now mentality has been passed on to those growing up with dire results.
And I am sure we are all asking what is the point of the awful Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems? We just can't afford to be liberal at the moment.
They'll get wiped out at the next election and that will be that. But to be fair all the current crop of politicans are simply awful.
While Clegg is the worst, the others aren't far behind. David Cameron appears to be a hammy actor though Ed Milliband is worse. (Though not as bad as the other Ed. Balls to him)
Just when you thought Michael Foot was probably the worst ever Labour leader along comes Ed. They must be wondering in the party how on earth they can get rid of him.
Mary Portas has reviewed high streets for the Government. Just looks like a publicity stunt. She didn't really come up with much.
My views on high streets are. Well, one argument is forget them, they are finished thanks to the internet, high rents, and market forces. Leave them to the chains and turn the empty ones that will never be filled again back into housing.
Or, do what the French do. Zone them. Give a third to independents with regulated lower rents that they can actually make a profit on and rents can only increase with inflation. Some high streets might survive but only ones in well-heeled areas who want to support upmarket butchers and the like.
However I am afraid the high street is finished in its current form - expect just a small amount of the big brands and charity shops. Most will continue to go to out of town supermarkets and the internet.
TV this year was mostly terrible, however there were one or two highlights.
Best Drama: Boardwalk Empire (Sky Atlantic). Supreme drama, I know you didn't see it, get the DVD!
Best comedy: The superb Curb Your Enthusiasm, yes know you never saw that either, get the complete series on DVD! It shows Ricky Gervais how it should be done.
Best popular drama: Downton Abbey, though it did appear to turn into comedy in the last few episodes but still watchable. I'll have to record the Xmas special as will be on a plane when it's shown.
I am desperately hoping Bates gets found guilty!! I can't stand the goody two shoes any longer!
Worst of the year? So much! Ch 5 trying to put some life back into dead format Big Brother. The terribly disappointing Life's Too Short. Last week's comedy awards featuring Jonathan Ross who is about as funny as a road crash.
Then the awful X-Factor. Same old format, same manipulative story lines, same crap singers.
I gave up after a while but saw the yawn inducing final where ten minutes material was dragged out into tedious hours and after all that it's won by four girls who can't sing with an awful song. Big changes needed. I would sharpen it up and cut it right down to half an hour.
I see there is a show on ITV this week entitled
"Westlife: For The Last Time"
To which surely the only rejoinder can be: "Thank f*** for that!"
MARKETS
Well, I thought I'd begin with rounding off the last trades for the year, review of my trading year and end off with some shares I'm watching for 2012.
2011 proved the hardest year ever. The volatility was astounding, with the first week in August quite bonkers.
However I did manage to make some money largely thanks to some of my longer-term holds which still did well and also shorting really helped me to bank some cash too. I also got rid of losers as fast as possible which really helped to ensure my pot didn't suffer. More on all that in a mo but let me wrap up more recent stuff.
I am off to South Africa from Xmas Day for 3 weeks so quite careful with any new buying and also I have sold some things and expect to make one more clear out of shares before I go leaving me with taken profits and a whole heap of cash for the new year.
January and February usually aren't great months so I don't want anything too volatile open for the first bit of the year. I'm kind of looking to be careful for the first bit of 2012 and then have decent firepower ready for later in the year.
Right before a look ahead to 2012 a wrap of recent moves...
I've bought some IP Group (IPO). A fascinating one that is hard to weigh up but looks interesting enough to take a chance on with 5,000 shares at 74p.
The company is in effect like a very big Dragons Den dragon... it provides money and expertise to up and coming companies and has a massive and varied portfolio of companies. It's also doing very well, and although it's already had a good run, I'm going to back it for more rises.
I was amazed to see Carpetright beginning to rise after results. The results were dire but buyers came in and it began to rise strongly so I closed out at 412 for a profit of £2,380 to add to the other profit on it made recently.
I guess part of it is, ahem, shorters closing! However looks like a wonderful chance to get in on a new short on these quite soon as I still think they are worth 3 quid and not 5 quid, perhaps it could be the short of 2012?
Half profits were taken on Supergoup which nicely hit the 550 target and profit taken at 544 for a profit of £1,100. However kept hold of the rest of the spreadbet on it and they look undervalued still after results and looking to buy more on a bad day. Nice planned trade made at the last seminar which worked out brilliantly.
The quick swing trade in Dignity worked well at 842for a profit of £170.
Yule Catto rose strongly however encountered a lot of sellers after it sped up towards 180 so I exited at 175 and 174 on the spreads at a total profit of £690. Sellers continued in however it surprised me by heading right back to the support area of 152 so I nabbed a new spreadbet on it for £30 at 153.
Devro went at 257-5 for a profit of £3,626. Nice share but hasn't gone anywhere for ages. Afren went at 86.5 for a profit of £450 as it couldn't crack 90. New Brit top up didn't work and sold at 781-5 for a loss of £118 and buy back at 725. A little topslice of Ms brought in £940 and the final bit of Domino was sliced off for a profit of £360 (looking for a repeat trade there).
Phew. All of that adds up to a profit for the site of £9,598 pushing website profits up to near £990,000 getting me closer and closer to the magic million profit mark.
As I said I expect to probably close more out before I leave for South Africa and back in January with tons of cash!
LOOK BACK AT 2011
Phew, well it wasn't too bad, and actually made some profits in a bad year.
Continuing to cut losses fast and run the good ones worked even during the volatility.
I made some very good money by going short using the SUK2 for my ISA (see naked trader 3 for more on that), FTSE shorts using spreadbets and shorting some individual companies.
However I feel I could have made a shedload more by simply sticking with all the shorts I took out - I closed most of them way too early costing me thousands in lost potential profit.
The one that irritates most is Blinkx! I was certain this was wildly overated and shorted it at 175ish - it went to 150 where I closed out. two weeks later it was 70p!! It's 50p now I daren't look. Arrrrghhhh!
At least I hung onto the Ocado short for a decent period and that worked. In real life I had some massive shorts on it, closed some out but still hold some big ones though as I write it can't be long before I close them out, profits on the short well over £10,000.
Carpetright too proved an excellent short. Nice short too on Linkedin though probably the best closed short of the year was Betfair, a great short that one.
But plenty of "if onlys". If only I had held onto the Home Retail short and oh that Mothercare short! Why oh why wasn't I more patient, the profits on that if I had held on! A lesson learned I hope.
Onto the biggest 2011 cock ups for me.
My worst trade was a loss of over 3 grand in a CPP spreadbet. Never saw that coming and not much I could do as it tumbled overnight when it announced an investigation into its selling practices. As a trader something like this will always happen once or twice a year. I still would not have seen that one biting me in hindsight.
Other terrible trades were anything that lost me over a grand - step up Harvey Nash and Character (though got some back on that one). Both entered too high and was too slow to take the losses while small. My own fault.
However in a tough year I'm still happy I in the main kept losses in the low 100s while closing out some profits in the 1000s.
On closed trades some lovely profits on Charter and Laird banked, both on the bid block. And plenty of nice trades closed out making me between £2 and £3 grand each.
Some great profits currently stacked up in unclosed trades.
Biggest three winners in the portfolio are: (rough profits!)
1. Telecom Plus profit £92,000
2. Dialight profit £43,000
3. Microgen Profit £27,000
And big dividends too!
So my share of the year has to be Telecom Plus which has soared to another high this year - up an amazing 70% in a bad year and still looks good, in particular the dividend rise of 25%. This is my big income earner, with more than £300,000 worth in real life the yield brings in a fantastic income every year - I should pick up around £13,000 in divs in the next year. Total profits here are well in excess of £90,000 and way more than that personally. I don't expect a massive rise in 2012, but a tenner will do nicely!
Second biggest winner long-term superstar Dialight has been steady for a long time. But it is in a rapidly growing market. Much is in the price admittedly but with patience there is a tenner to come. Well, I have been patient all the way from 150p to 750 and as those of you who have to my seminars have seen from my accounts my profits in real life are something like £70,000. For the website profits are more than £40,000 - and of course there have been dividends on top.
And Microgen has been a lovely winner, first bought this one live at a seminar a couple of years ago and it's done nothing but rise and trebled for me. I reckon more to come next year.
Coastal Energy has been a lovely near doubler and one I intend to stick with for next year as it could be a really hot share for 2012, as it has been already for 2011. This good news story just keeps getting better and better and I am looking for well over a tenner here, perhaps up to 1400 now - I've now pretty much doubled on the first buy not that long ago and nicely up on the topup. Fantastic share.
Alternative Networks has been a top notch share for me, again doubled on it and made a lot of profit on this one but expect to continue to hold long-term for a decent capital gain and nice income too. I expect another rerating sometime next year. In the meantime some great dividends to come. It's also nicely defensive.
An unsung long-termer in the portfolio is Aggreko, just continues going up over time, a lovely one! Bought at 11 quid ish and now at 17.
Kentz has had a brilliant year, some long-term spreadbets on that one that have paid off and more than doubled. It seems stuck around the mid 400s for now. Not sure why as it still looks cheap - some huge contracts, plenty of visibility, long-term work and a whole heap of cash - I hope this will be a big winner in 2012.
BTG is hovering around three quid and remains a nice doubler for me this year. A nice long-termer and another I'm keeping hold of.
Entertainment One has been a star for me this year and another doubler. Still waiting on bid news here I actually think a bid is now in this one for next to nothing! To me the shares are pretty much worth 190-200 quid each without a bid and I would now imagine any bidder would have to pay nearer three pounds than 250.
LOQ has been a tremendous share in 2011 and another doubler. Potential for more in 2012.
I suppose you could argue it is a bit foolhardy to hold on to some of the big winners for 2012, but running winners is the way to big money.
One other thing to mention about 2011 is the rise of the robots - programmed algorithms that buy and sell shares in effect to manipulate prices in their favour and hence much more volatility. With the machines taking over sometimes prices can move by idiotic amounts quickly so expect another "flash crash" at some point next year.
LOOK AHEAD TO 2012
Well, let's face it for right now 2012 looks a bit scary. There seems to be lots of horrible news and little good.
But you could have said the same when we entered 2009 - it was dark and gloomy then but from March the markets took off. We have to remember markets always look forwards and you could argue there is a lot of bad news already in prices.
I guess much will depend on what happens in the Eurozone next year and whether or not it can be sorted out. If it can't we could end up in a mess but the ability to be able to short via spreadbets is fantastic.
I can't tell you what will happen because I don't know and nor does anyone else really. If you read stories written by "experts" they are only b-s*itting you because they don't know either.
But they have funds or newsletters or tipsheets or software to sell you so they need some good headlines, preferably fear driven ones to get you to subscribe.
My plan for the moment is to keep some cash back and not have to heavy a stake in anything in case liquidity dries up making it hard to get out of something. Follow the market if I can and not secong guessing it.
Staying away from companies with big debt and concentrating on ones with low debt or cash in markets which could go well.
And in general I am going to continue to avoid anything too volatile. They are just too much like hard work!
And important for this year again will be to plan every trade and axe any trade fast that is going wrong before it goes very wrong.
Next year, at least the beginning of it I'm going to treat with extreme caution and if things go pear shaped then I shall use the power of spreadbetting to make money from the downside.
I guess we have to hope somehow the economic mess is sorted out a bit.
However some shares could still go up and I'll look forwards now to next year with:
TEN SHARES I AM WATCHING FOR 2012
More specifically I thought I would share with you ten shares on my radar for 2012. I am no forecaster, I am in some of these already, and some I have yet to get involved in, they are simply shares with a story attached.
In most cases these stories will either end up real and the shares could soar, and in some cases the story won't work out and they could plummet. I am keeping an eye on them all next year and hope they all might make profitable trades at some stage. The key would be to exit fast with small losses should the stories not make it and try and run up the ones that do come up with the promised goods. And if the whole economy sinks to oblivion next year then all bets are off anyway.
They are in no particular order of merit! Just to remind you my comments are my own opinion and I am not advising you to buy any of them and I am not a tipster. I could be and probably will be totally wrong on some of them. If you try and follow me into them you could be buying a stinker and you may not have the experience to get out fast if they go wrong. Always do your own research and make your own decisions based on your own experience of the markets.
However I think all the following have potential upside and all have either got some cash or debt is low.
Innovation Group (LON:TIG) Quietly building this one, continues to win lots of new contracts and has a good balance sheet - looks cheap and could have a storming 2012.
Monitise (LON:MONI) Tricky to value as it's not due to make a profit till 2013. However it is in the right area of the market, paying for everything using your mobile - it has created some giant partnerships, one with the mighty visa. A potential big player in the future. Some could argue though a "jam tomorrow" share.
Carclo (LON:CAR). Make or break year for this one. It's all down to whether its touchsceen techology takes off or not. If it does there is tons more upside. However, a failure would be punished. A gamble, but one that could pay off. Already doubled my money here so can afford to be patient, wait and see.
Vislink (LON:VLK) - this company is transforming itself and concentrating more on defence - providing cameras for unmanned "drone" aircraft. If drones continue to take off this new angle could go well for the company and with plenty of cash looks little downside for now and potential good upside. One broker targets 36p. I've nipped a few.
Kentz (LON:KENZ) - An overlooked oil services company that has bundles of cash - it's joined the ftse 250 and looks undervalued. Possibly that's because it has a lot of contracts in the volatile middle east but that aside, there could be tremendous upside to this one in 2012 especially if it uses its cash wisely.
Iomart (LON:IOM) Cloud computing is the new buzzword - if cloud computing continues to be the next big thing then this looks the best company to be in. Obvious risk if it doesn't but a potential doubler.
Computacentre (LON:CCC). Looks oversold, management promises a successful end of year and it's got a massive cash pile. Also appears to be bottoming out.
Filtronic (LON:FTC). Definitely a gamble this one for small money only. Only valued at 17m and it has 4m cash - a load of directors bought shares in November which brings some confidence its change of tack could bring in dividends. I would guess this one could either be double or half the price by the end of 2012 !
Yule Catto (LON:YULC) I wonder whether this could be a bid target next year? Given its massive recent slump could it go the way of Charter and get snapped up while cheap? I'll be considering tucking some away next year on a bad day and holding for the potential takeover. Even without it begins to look cheap. Downside of course if we have a terrible 2012.
BAY Bayfield Energy. A high risk oil play but it is headed by Finian O'Sullivan who took Burren Energy from 200p to 1230p - so obviously an excellent guy to have on board here. If he can pull off the same trick, the kind of share that could double or more in 2012.
And my favourite potential short: Carpetright (CPR) - Gone back to over five after dire results, I expect to get in here with a short as I just can't see this one having anything other than a horrible 2012.
So there we are - I'm off for my hols reasonably satisfied overall. I know I could have done better with more running winners on the shorts. And I took some unneccesary bigger losses too. But overall wins were much bigger than losers and I am still here!
I'll be back in January, I hope you all have a wonderful festive season and remember, money isn't everything.
If you had a bad 2011 I am sorry, but you have to be in the game to win it. If your strategies aren't working it can be best to get out and come back again another time.
Enjoy yourself with friends and family, have fun and laugh. Life is short, enjoy it. And as they say the best things in life continue to be free. Hope Mrs NT will provide one aspect of the best things in life are free department while Christopher is busy with the kids club at the hotel!
