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Every single day at least three news items designed to put fear into a trader's life
*****NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY DEC 18TH - A BUMPER XMAS EDITION with a review of the year and look forward to next year! (Ie there is no email next wednesday, it'll be sunday!)***
My plan for last weekend? Stay out of Accident and Emergency departments!
I've ended up in there 3 times recently and if you read last week's update last weekend I was being told I was about to be knocked out and operated on to get a fishbone out!
Which by sheer fluke I managed to avoid by getting out of there fast and going home and by the time I got back it had fallen out.
I was health and safety all weekend. What was about to attack me this weekend?
Taking Christopher to football I wondered if a flying football from a wayward seven-year-old was going to bang me in the face and knock my teeth out... same when he went to tennis, I survived.
I walked slowly and checked everything, especially food. I even didn't eat grapes in case one got stuck. Saturday I stayed out of A and E.
I felt fairly confident by Sunday afternoon until Mrs NT went out and a giant Xmas tree was delivered.
"You need to saw the bottom off," advised delivery man as if that was an easy job.
"Aha," I thought. "That is it, instead of sawing off the bottom of the tree something awful is going to happen. Let me guess: will I saw off my willie or something...?
Or something unexpected... Hmm, perhaps fall on an Xmas tree branch which lodges in my bum?
I could see them in casualty now, Here he is again, last week a fish bone got stuck. This time, an Xmas tree....
You can't blame me: I refused to have any dealings with the tree whatsoever turning down all entreaties of can you lend me a hand with the tree etc... and I was having no interactions whatsoever with a saw.
Lucky a handy friend of mine owes me a favour. So he came over with his saw.
He's a mad QPR fan. Last time I saw him I'd invited him to watch Fulham VS QPR with Christopher,
Fulham won 6-0 but he'd already legged it when we hit 5. "Do not say anything about the Fulham game," I warned Christopher not wanting my friend to leave without sorting out the tree.
As my friend arrived Christopher giggled: "six nil" ... I swiftly got Christopher away and soon the work was done!
And now I have to admit that I deserved to get the fish bone stuck. It served me right.
What I didn't tell you in the last update was before I cooked the fish I did chase Christopher around the place with it shouting "Fishy is coming to get you..."
So the fish quite rightly got its revenge on me... All I can advise is: Do not eat Sea Bass. They are evil.
Don't you think pre Xmas is quite stressful...
What I hate is e Christmas cards. You have no idea if you download it whether there might be a virus hiding inside and also you can't help but think: "Lazybones, either send me a card in the post or don't bother."
(So if you are thinking of sending me an ecard... please don't! I don't want to sound ungrateful but honestly? It just causes me stress. Donate a quid to charity for me instead.)
I went for a spot of shopping at M and S, parked the car and went to the machine to pay for half an hour's parking.
"Got change for a fiver?" asked a guy standing by the machine. I didn't have enough but I saw I did have enough to get my parking and his.
So I just handed over some money. "There you go," I said. "It's on me."
He said he couldn't possibly take the money. "Go on," I said. "Why not? It's only £1.50, you might help someone the same way one day, take it, sometimes you should just take..."
He went on to say he couldn't possibly, it was bad Karma. I tried one more time but he just said he would go to the nearly bookies and get change there.
How odd! I would have taken it. Strange that you try and be kind and it's not accepted! Almost some kind of suspicion. We ought to be able to help others if we want...
I do think sometimes it is fine to take. For example if I happen to be out with friends and someone offers to pay I'll accept and say thanks.
Because usually if someone wants to get something, they really do want to.
I know when I offer to pay I mean it and I want to. So I think it is fine both to give and receive (I know what you are thinking, you and your gutter mind).
I have to say though when I offer the Big Issue guy £20 and don't expect change, luckily he is happy to take, and quite rightly!
I've had a yellow card from Mrs NT. This is for two persistent offences:
1 - Not putting the top back on the milk cartons
2- Consistently eating all the grapes.
This is pretty fair on the whole. Milk tops do fall on the floor but when you have hot toast and tea I just well haven't got the time to pick it up. I think I'll do it after tea and toast is consumed but then, I just forget.
I do eat all the grapes. I can't help it. I eat one, I have to eat them all. I have in my defence told her to hide them.
This morning I could feel the grapes of wrath heading my way.
There was a rumbling in the kitchen. "Did you eat all the grapes? What am I going to put in Christopher's snackbox?"
Phew, it was okay, I knew this time I had resisted them by not even eating one. However they had mysteriously vanished. I thought back, no it definitely wasn't me but somehow I still felt in the dock.
They turned up in the bread bin. Lesson is, if you hide the grapes, you've got to remember where you hid them!
I've got a great idea! Let's downgrade the ratings agencies!!
In fact let's ban them! Just as confidence returns a bit and at just the wrong time they bring fear back into the markets. What is the point of them?
Every time I tune in there is more bad news.
I fully expect any day to hear: "Authorities across the world announce we are all in the s***. We've run out of ideas. But remember... We are all in the s*** together. There is no money left! Man the lifeboats!
Do not blame us, your leaders. It is all YOUR fault. You bunch of GREEDY b******** ! You had to have it now didn't you. That's right. YOU. You borrowed on your credit cards to buy stuff you didn't really need. And you knew you'd never be able to pay it back.
YOU had to have the latest I gadget didn't you. Not happy with a phone that just made phone calls were you? You wanted a mega latte every day didn't you and paid for it using money you didn't have didn't you. You wanted a plazma TV you couldn't afford and bought pizzas on your credit card to enjoy the X Factor.
And it was YOU who bought a house you couldn't afford at a silly price and a silly interest rate. And it's YOU who wants a big pension that can never be paid out because we're all living longer.
So don't blame US that you spent all the money and there isn't any left.
But don't worry! We think we can just about b-s you all into thinking things are okay for another couple of years. Yeah, we have come up with a new plan pumping BILLIONS into the market. And we'll buy BILLIONS of bonds. And now here comes some jargon none of you will understand and nor do we. But if we just keep saying BILLIONS you'll be fooled. If it gets any worse then we will make it TRILLIONS.
We just hope we can keep things going till we can hand the giant mess onto..... someone else!!!
Erm. I have no idea who wrote the above, I just went out to lunch and someone went crackers and wrote all that. Do excuse me!! I'll shut down my computer next time I go out to lunch..
Phew, Fulham Vs Liverpool. What a game that was! Christopher and me thought Fulham would be lucky to get a draw and they go and win (though a sending off rather helped!)
Even Nrs NT watched the last few minutes and cheered when we scored the winner. Our next door football stadium looked amazing decked out with Xmas decorations.
It's a lovely old fashioned ground, if you ever get a chance to watch a game there, go, it is very family friendly and neutrals are welcomed.
So I see the two best looking blokes came first and second in I'm A Celebrity. The only people who vote are young women... hmmm..
Still, to be fair they seem perfectly nice blokes and if Christopher turned out anything like those two I would be happy (I think!) Me? I was a Pat Sharpe fan!
Boardwalk Empire continues to be the best series around.. if you haven't caught this get the DVD!
The Devil's Dinner is quite fun on Sky Atlantic. Say what you really think about people you just met at a dinner party.
Shows our initial impressions of people are so unfair. But that's life.
The new Ricky Gervais vehicle has turned out to be a bit of a stinker, Life's Too Short. He seems to be playing an unpleasant bully with no redeeming features.
Problem is nothing new here and just a rehash of his old jokes. He needs something totally different now. If I were him I would take a break for a couple of years and come back with something new. No doubt though, a talented man.
Markets
Just a note for those of you who only read this bit of the website (and who can blame you, whatcha want to read about my life for, have you nothing better to do?)..a reminder the final update this year will be next SUNDAY rather than Wednesday but it will be a bumper edition with a review of the year and a look forwards to next year and what I plan to be doing.
(It doesn't matter how many times I put it in this update, I know I'll get mails on Wednesday night "Why didn't you update your website" etc.)
And for those of you who mail me and say is the website ending now... the answer is not right now, but it might not be too far off and don't be too surprised if I disappear suddenly. One mad email may tip me over the edge. But I plan to be here for at least the first quarter of 2012. The catayst for me to say goodbye may be finally reaching a banked £1m profit for the site.
But good news for those who want me to keep going is since going weekly it's been way easier for me and almost back to being an interesting hobby which is all I wanted rather than a total hassle which I didn't. I'm about to start writing the fiction book I always wanted to. Bottom line is if the website interferes with my new ambition it's going.
I don't know about you but I've had enough!! Every single day at least three news items designed to put fear into a trader's life.
It's a DOWNGRADE!!! Help!! ALL countries will be downgraded!! says the newsreader sternly.
Or else it's a EURO CRISIS! Or it's Inflation fear, deflation fear, currency fear, bank lending fear...
And when the totally irritating Robert Peston appears consistently on the news, you know we're in trouble.
"I am going to strongly emphasise the wrong WORD which is really ANNOYING, words like CRISIS and words you don't UNDERSTAND like Euro bond debt swap yield wife swap easing downgrade rating default God there must be a comedy on the OTHER channel...."
However for right this minute anyhow the markets amazingly seem to think the future doesn't look so bad and the last week it's risen well. Though they could easily change their minds in the next 5 seconds.
(The market will self destruct in ten seconds, please stand clear...)
I had selfishly rather welcomed the previous falls hoping it would hit 5000 and then nicely into a superb Xmas rally. Now it's gained already it makes it a bit more puzzling. Have we had the santa rally already, or can we have more rises on top taking us up to an unexpected 6000 by year end? Answers on a postcard please.
No use asking me, I don't have a clue. Ask one of the bullshit experts you see about the place! I'll try and carry on following the market rather than trying to guess it.
But the recent rises coupled with bad news stories have made it a head scratcher - and we have the Euro meetings going on this week. All designed to make it hard work to figure anything out. Maybe someone will say the magic words.. the two that seem to work are "bailout" and "quantitive easing". Someone say one of them!
Right what have I been up to then? Well for the time being I'm steering clear of adding anything that is too volatile. However there are still some trades about.
I've bought some Innovation Group (TIG) - this one came up on a screen at the last seminar and I thought I would just wait and see results first.
Interesting - results are really good on this one and so is the outlook. The shares went down on profit taking however I decided to buy and used level 2 to judge that and got 20,000 shares at 17.47.
Very promising indeed - markets look good and strong, profits are well up and it has an excellent cash pile too, everything I like to see.
My trading plan is targetting its high initially which is around 22p and would give me more than 20% profit - however if it gets there I would re-look at it again because if it bust through around 22p it could easily go higher bagging greater profits. In with a medium-term view on it. The fact is has done well recently bodes very well for this one.
The good news I think for me even in a bad market at the very least it is very fair value and little downside apparent.
GB Group (GBG) is interesting. Made some nice money on this before and I am tempted back in here for 8,000 shares at 46.5 even though it's already gone up a bit this week.
At first glance GB looks fully valued. However I think this one looks like it has a great future and it's one I'm looking at as a longer-term idea for a potential bid on it next year, targetting a near double in price to 80p ish.
Why? I love the area of the market it is in: ID - this is a massive growth area. And it has good contracts with plenty of big companies including Betfair. Its systems can tell companies that it is really you etc. Plus they have lots of applications and even better links with both Serco and Microsoft.
At its current price GB could be taken out for small change and it would be no surprise to wake up one morning next year to see a takeover announcement. Please remember though this is total speculation on my part, I could be totally wrong. GB has also been buying up other companies to expand and impressively raised £8m recently from institutions who seemed happy to back it. Given all that could be a nice one for 2012. Downside? Its price is determined by a small number of market makers who can shake up the price as they like, so I expect to have to be patient and endure some treeshakes.
The Dominos trade turned out to be harder to execute than I imagined. I had targetted 450 which it reached and so I sold some (449) which was fine. I then rather expected it to march up to 500ish where I expected to sell the rest.
That bit didn't work out so well as it reversed fast from 450. Hindsight tells me I should probably have sold the lot at 450. Still, it was a good trade nevertheless. For site purposes some are sold for a profit of £1,030. Interesting though if it falls to the low 400s a new repeat trade could present itself.
I had to bank part of the Carpetright short. it simply kept rising daily - those of you that came to the seminar saw me pushing the stops down into profit on the more recent shorts and they were hit at 419 for a profit of £250.
However the original short up in the 650 area I am keeping and despite the rise that is still in profit by nearly £2,000. I have no idea why it's gone up and looking to re-enter for a new short any moment. I can't see how it is worth more than three quid. It definitely ain't worth five. (Watch for a bid at 7 quid tomorrow, as that would serve me flipping well right).
Portfolio highlights;
It's been another very good week for the portfolio - plenty of decent profits around, the knotty problem is, take some profits or wait for a santa rally?
The Supergroup trade has worked a treat! Now up 100 points - the tricky bit now is whether to take profits before next week's trading update or not? I think I should take at least half profits. But with the price rising a nasty statement looks unlikely. I'll need a think. If it rises a lot more before the statement the temptation will probably be to cash in.
Gulf Keystone is on the rise, some bid rumours but the price doesn't seem to indicate there will be one. Still, you never know! I'm unsure on the Afren trade. In a nice profit but it keeps running out of steam in the 90s so temptation is there to cash that one in too. Yule Catto has done nicely.
I think in summary with the above momentum trades I suspect I'll be out of all those and bank the profits before leaving for South Africa on Xmas day! (Or even in the next five minutes...)
Coastal Energy however is one I intend to stick with for next year as it could be a really hot share for 2012, as it has been already for 2011. This good news story just keeps getting better and better and I am looking for well over a tenner here, perhaps up to 1400 now - I've now pretty much doubled on the first buy not that long ago and nicely up on the topup. Fantastic share. I have roughly £70,000 ish worth in real life so this is going very well for me, and if it can double again from here I will be sitting pretty and tax free in the isa.
The Ocado short: I keep wondering whether to bank the rest of the Ocado short as there is a profit there of more nearly £4,000 It doesn't go up much with the main market but wonder if I am being too greedy expecting any further falls. Still, I did take some profits on it already.
Excellent results from Alternative Networks yesterday, an under the radar share though not sure why. A very confident statement with dividends to be raised 10% every year - made alot of profit on this one but expect to continue to hold long-term for a decent capital gain and nice income too. I was tempted to buy some more but I see I have a lot tucked away.
A nice statement too from Porvair: up over 2 grand on this one and they are ahead of expectations, looks like some very strong trading there.
RWS has risen nicely above my buy price, some good buyers in there recently. And an unsung long-termer in the portfolio is Aggreko, just continues going up over time, a lovely one!
Telecom Plus has soared to another high and- looks good, in particular the dividend rise of 25%. This is my big income earner, with more than £300,000 worth in real life the yield brings in a fantastic income every year - I should pick up around £13,000 in divs in the net year. Total profits here are well in excess of £90,000 and way more than that personally - plus all those lovely dividends.
Kentz seems stuck around the 450 area. Not sure why as it still looks cheap - some huge contracts, plenty of visibility, long-term work and a whole heap of cash - this ought to hold up if the market tanks further and still looks very cheap - I hope this will be a big winner in 2012.
BTG is hovering around three quid today and remains a nice doubler.
CML begins a rise again - and there are some hints in the statement that look interesting about next year, maybe something they can't explain fully but looks like there is some confidence about the markets they are in. I also wonder whether this looks like a potential takeover story, a bigger rival could easily buy this out for loose change.
Entertainment One looks like it will stay where it is for a bit. I actually think a bid is now in this one for next to nothing! To me the shares are pretty much worth 190-200 quid each without a bid and I would now imagine any bidder would have to pay nearer three pounds than 250.
Long-term superstar Dialight remains where it is for now. But it is in a rapidly growing market. Much is in the price admittedly but with patience there is a tenner to come. Well, I have been patient all the way from 150p to 750 and as those of you who have to my seminars have seen from my accounts my profits in real life are something like £70,000. For the website profits are more than £40,000 - and of course there have been dividends on top.
LOQ has been a tremendous share and this week announced a new link up with a giant - it's bubbling under 200, but looks like at some point it will shoot through that for more gains. Overall I'm pretty happy with everything as it stands and some decent money has been coming in. I have no idea what happens next through and will try and go with the flow.
Biggest three winners in the portfolio are: (rough profits!)
1. Telecom Plus profit £92,000
2. Dialight profit £43,000
3. Microgen Profit £27,000
(which doesn't include thousands of pounds worth of dividends from all three!).
