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There should never be any "rush" to make a trade just to make one
I was really looking forwards to the half term holidays in balmy Tenerife.
The seminar went on till quite late (usual for these days!), more on the seminar later and I collapsed into bed.
Saturday I felt groggy but then I always do after a seminar because after all I am talking for more than 12 hours and having questions fired at me all day and I have to concentrate hard.
So I didn't think much of it till the Sunday when I thought, hang on I don't usually feel THIS bad on the sunday after a seminar, a bit tired maybe but not feeling like this!
I ended up in bed on the Sunday. We were due to fly out in the early hours of Monday and I honestly thought I wasn't going to be able to make the holiday at all.
So somehow I managed to get on the plane and into the holiday destination hotel.
Sadly for me I saw most of the hotel...... from my hotel bed! I obviously picked up some nasty stomach bug and ended up feeling very poorly for most of the stay.
I had no energy and felt sick every time I ate. However I decided it would be over in a couple of days and I tried to brave it out.
Until in the middle of the night I felt really sick, collapsed on the bathroom floor, which stangely made me feel a little better but I couldn't move.
Next morning it was call the doctor time as I wasn't getting any better.
I was impressed with the Spanish healthcare though. Asked the hotel for a doctor. He was there in 20 minutes, and it cost 70 Euros. Fair enough.
Though I wasn't happy when he was giving me two painful injections in the bum.
He reckoned I nearly had gastrointeritis but something just a little less than that but still nasty.
Still the injections and medical treatment helped and though still feeling not so great for the rest of the trip I very gradually started to improve a bit.
Problem was all I could eat was anything dry so I ended up with a bit of chicken and some plain rice. Every night, that's when I could eat at all.
And I had booked a fantastic restaurant for my birthday and had to cancel it.
Yes. Really poor old me. The worst holiday ever, or one I never really had.
Of course there is nothing worse than being in a 5 star hotel when feeling really sick. All you want is to be at home. I just wanted a bit of dry toast from time to time and some tea. Getting this in the hotel was next to impossible.
Well at least Christopher had a whale of a time - he found other boys near his age to play football with.
Sheer heaven for him! And there was a great beach for him too. The family we went with had a great time as well.. they all did except me!
Just about by the end of the holiday I was getting better although could still only manage dried foods - and at least I could manage to get on the plane to get home.
And what a relief to get home... when you're feeling sick being able to get what you want when you want is amazing after a hotel.
Right now I'm a lot better through eating a bit gingerly still. So I'm hoping it's all over and it's great to feel better and you realise how important health is.
I'm obviously a bit behind with answering emails, bear with me and I will try and clear them by the weekend, I think one or two may have gone awol so if no reply from me by the weekend please resend.
Don't you hate the clocks going back? Dark at 4.30? It's worse with a young active lad, we can't go out and play football like we used to. I miss that already.
Still, we all look forwards to our trip to South Africa over Xmas.
Did I just say Xmas? Is it really honestly that time of the year AGAIN? How did it happen and why does time go by faster the older you get... it's so unfair.
This weekend Christopher, me and a six-year-old friend of his are off to watch Fulham Vs Spurs. Should be a good game!
And tomorrow night Fulham is live on Ch5 playing a Europe game so if he is good we might let him stay up and watch the first half.
In the meantime I need to get to the Sky Plus machine and delete the game were Zamora managed to miss an open goal. Christopher seems to enjoy watching that for some reason....
A belated thanks to all of you who came to the seminar a couple of weeks ago, thanks for all the lovely feedback on it - because of illness it took me a while to reply to the feedback but I think I got back to you all now.
I believe you all have the notes which I emailed before I went away, if you didn't end up getting those please let me know.
I was amazed to see how many of you stayed till late and I was very flattered by that - also feedback shows how many of you were "getting" level 2 and the order book.
And also glad many of you feel you now understand how the market works better after our session - I was glad to be able to place a lot of live trades on the order book to show you how it works in reality. I think it is so important to know this.
Glad many of you enjoyed the fish and chips lunch and the pizzas. And it looks like looking through my accounts and how I try and handle positions has helped too along with changing the stop losses on one of my spreadbet accounts which we did live.
Vince Cable. What a man. If you held the title of Business Secretary, wouldn't you just spend one minute every so often to check your tax is right?
To not register for vat just shows how the high and mighty are no better than any of us.
What does it also show? How idiotic and complex our tax laws are and how those running small businesses have to spend hours and hours on tiny little complex rules instead of .. doing business..
I often wonder whether I can even be bothered running seminars simply because of the hours and hours it takes me to do the paperwork.
I have to charge everyone vat. Then I have to collect it all, add it up, check and re-check, then without any thanks for the hours I spend being a tax collector then pass it on. At the end of it I often think: was it all worth it? Goodness knows with some businesses.
For Cable not to even register for vat is simply amazing. How can he now lecture us on tax affairs if he can't get something so basic right? Personally, I would have fired him right away. Sorry Vince.
Vince highlights all that is wrong with our policians, they have no idea at all about business and the headaches it brings, mainly caused by red tape.
Time to shift the protestors I think, it's fair to let demos take place but they ought to demonstrate, get the headlines and then move on.
Ironically those of us who want the capitalist system are way too busy working to be able to think about getting a tent and sitting in it for weeks....
Without a capitalist system I am not sure where the protestors think they are going to get their daily Starbucks from....
Really sorry to read of the death of Jimmy Saville. A true British eccentric who was always himself.
Sadly in our homogonised society eccentricity appears to be frowned upon these days. Yet we need more characters like him not less.
But no, he would never make it on the radio now as identikit "personality" dj's talk the same old rubbish.
He seemed a genuine good sort and raised millions. it's a shame he didn't have a family as it would be interesting to see the progress of his sons or daughters.
Let us embrace those different from the norm and encourage individuality.
Downtown Abbey. I am only (just) hanging on in there. But I think if it wasn't for Mrs NT I would now be "out".
Too many daft plots, bad acting and no real rapport between the characters. And some awful cheese has been putting in an appearance. Shame as the first series was good. Maybe it'll improve when the war bits end. It hasn't got long.
Much better is the brilliant prohibition drama on Sky Atlantic, Boardwalk Boulevard. Always gripping throughout. See it from the start if you missed it. Nearly as good as the Sopranos.
Best ever episode of the Sopranos was just repeated. What a series.
And Curb remains in excellent form,, more 4 on Sunday nights.
Markets
Goodness, well they were pretty good while I was away in Spain.. And then when I get back they turn nasty again. Come on, its going to be something to do with Greece. Am I right?
Who'd have thought just a few months ago that one small country would cause shares to rocket up and down.
I could hardly believe my ears when I heard the word "referendum", surely that won't happen and in any event how on earth can they afford the cost of one?
They seem to be totally bonkers right now, I'm half Greek and honestly I'm feeling ashamed of them. Sorry. But what the hell are they playing at? They just can't expect to retire years earlier than anywhere else and not pay their taxes.
I suspect it will get sorted out, it has to be but until it is it looks like the volatility is back which makes it nearly impossible to trade sensibly. Market is heading back up today but with so many meetings ahead of us how the hell can one possibly tell what will happen next?
Here are some comments on the Greek situation from market commentator David Buik:
"I have George Papandreou, Greece's PM on my pad as perceived to be 'brain dead', mad, duplicitous, disingenuous or untrustworthy - probably the whole lot rolled in to one! Strong language, you might think, but the EU, the UK, the US, China and others have put themselves out on a limb to bail-out this bankrupt nation against many peoples' better judgement. Greece has zero chance of being able to service its debt let alone repay it in the short time subscribed. They have yet to sell meaningful assets and many people in Greece cannot spell tax, despite having one syllable. We can all see the deprivation on the streets of Athens as a result of the austerity measures, but its governments are surely culpable for their economic incompetence - in other words they only have themselves. It is hard to see Papandreou winning the debate. He needs to govern, not ask permission!
If, by calling for a referendum on the bail-out or perhaps I should say offering or granting one, he thinks that he can gain more leverage or manoeuvre the EU politicians, I think he deludes himself - or at least I hope so. The whole of the EU is now again in turmoil. Recently regained confidence has been trashed out of existence. The G20 summit in Cannes now looks as if it will be a total waste of time. The ESFS fund and the recapitalisation of the banks now reverts to the 'back burner' and Papandreou's folly will dominate proceedings. Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy have put the EU ahead of their respective political careers and all they get in return is contempt!
If this referendum goes to hell and a high place, I hope Greece is thrown to the dogs! The banks have lost billions, having been forced to take a hair-cut ; so has the EU - just for the sake of George Papandreou's selfish political expediency and his silvery tongued exemplary English. Butter wouldn't melt in his mouth! Even Greece's opposition parties realise that Papandreou is playing political 'Russian Roulette' with its EU membership. Maybe Papandreou has more vision and foresight than we give him credit for! Me! I think he's barking!"
I took my laptop with me on holiday but while in Tenerife and being so sick for days trading was one of the last things on my mind. Staying alive seemed rather more important, see my diary above somewhere for the full nasty details of a horrible sick couple of weeks for me.
The MF Global debacle has affected me, well not in a too worried sort of way but...
Unfortunately for me I had some spreadbets with MF Global. Luckily for me I stopped using them except very occasionally about 2 years ago when I noticed they were messing me around with sudden really wide spreads coming back to me when I wanted to take a profit on something. I thought it was obvious they weren't hedging and therefore wanted to make it as hard as possible for me to make any money. Up to then I'd been happy with them but I smelt a rat and immediately stopped any promotion for them.
In fact several times at seminars live I showed how I thought they were manipulating spreads against me while IG and Tradefair were being honourable in my opinion.
However I still had a few smaller longer-term spreadbets in there and I just left them to run. They were gradually collecting money and I hardly ever even bothered looking at the account.
On getting back from Spain I saw a newsflash on Sky about MF Global then remembered the account, doh!
A few minutes later I got a mail saying they were stopping their spreadbetting arm, leverage was no longer available etc. Then the bankrupcy news in the states.
I had roughly £65,000 with them in cash and shares. I immediately called to withdraw £20,000 floating in the account in cash and was surprised to get through rightaway and equally surprised when the money reached my account mid afternoon.
Then I thought why take a risk, I closed out all positions mid afternoon which was okay as they were in the main topups of stuff I have already. So taking profits on these was fine in any event.
I phoned and asked for the account to be closed and the remaining £45,000 to be credited to my account.
"That's fine doing it now," said the lady.
No money appeared yesterday so I called up. I had a chat with a guy who said it was a shame I hadn't asked for the lot when I asked for the 20k earlier but there was a "chance" it would reach my account later that day. It didn't and still hasn't arrived.
He said it was definite that all UK spreadbetting client money was segregated so it would be no problem getting the money but he said administrators were crawling all over the place. He confirmed my money was segregated and insisted I'd get it, but it "might take a few days".
He said as a backstop I'd be entitled to the lot back as it was under £85,000 which luckily it is under the financial compensation scheme;..
So I'm certain I'll get the money and lucky me I'm not bothered how long it takes as it wasn't earmarked for anything.
I tried calling again today but the answerphone was on so right now I'm pretty certain I will get the money, but no idea when or whether I'll have to claim it eventually.
However though I don't think I'll end up losing it there are some lessons to be learned here!
One thing must be always ensure you never have more than £85,000 parked with a spreadbet firm or CFD provider, I would ensure if you have more than that to spread it out amongst different SB firms just to be on the safe side, as least you know your money will come back to you.
If I had had say £300,000 with MF I would now be very worried.
I do have well over half a million parked with Barclays but I feel okay about this because if Barclays goes down I suspect money will be valueless anyway and we will be fighting each other in the streets. And watch it, I've got a good right hook!
Probably the biggest lesson to the MF debacle for those of you with spreadbet and cfd accounts.
It is a reminder that at any time your provider can simply email you and say: "Sorry we are offering no more leverage/credit, please mail us cash right now or we will close out your positions."
Leverage by the way simply means credit. Say you have 10 grand deposited with a spreadbet firm, in a lot of cases they might give you access to 50-100 grand worth of shares.
What happens is people get greedy and start using the credit. They suddenly have 90 grands worth of sharesa and say only 15k in the bank to cover it.
What happens if the market melts down or the firm tells you no more credit? You only have 15k to cover 90 grand.
I have heard and met people over the years who lost everything they had doing this. Do not be a casualty of leverage because you got greedy.
So repeat after me, especially with spreadbet firms or anything that gives you leverage.
Only play with money you can afford to lose and do not ever use more leverage than you can handle.
I personally could right now go in and buy 3 million quids worth of shares on leverage. Am I tempted? Not in the slightest.
What do I add to the stock market in cash terms. Just my 10k isa allowance each year. That's it.
I do not want to give back the great profits I have made over the years. Spreadbet profits go in the bank after they have built up. I use ISA money for big ticket items though in the main I try and run it like a pension.
Greed=Avoid. Debt=Avoid. Leverage=avoid. Don't have more than £85,000 with any one firm unless it is a really big bank like Barclays.
End of my boring old fart lecture. And I'll let you know when the money eventually arrives and whether it gets here quickly or whether I have to make a compensation claim. I have also written to this mail address which apparently is dealing with queries:
mfglobalenquiries@kpmg.co.uk
So if you have an MF Global account lodge a claim there, they are the administrators.
Phew, right onto trades, partly because of my illness and partly because the current market is bonkers I haven't done much and, well, still hanging onto a lot of cash for now till the dust settles.
But I've been sitting and waiting to buy Bayfield Energy (BEH) for some time since it got listed. It's an oiler which is impossible to value and instead of trying to value it I simply took a risk with it and bought on the strong management team.
I know this management team very well - it made me one of my biggest wins ever when I banked nearly £40,000 on Burren Energy which I bought at 200 ish and which eventually was bid for at 1200ish.
This sale team is behind Bayfield. And even better just a few days ago two directors bought shedloads of shares which fills me with some confidence and I think the risk reward ratio looks good. Of course one has to realise it is an oiler and one bad report and it could halve, however it could also double and treble from here and with the director buying and other good volume coming in I feel this one worth the gamble. It might take some patience too.
As it is AIM share to avoid any tax liability I bought on a spreadbet at £100 a point at 54. Which means the most I could lose if it went bust was £5,400.
I also bought back into Exillon (EXI) for a tenner at 248. This play does keep producing very bullish statements so I've tentatively picked up a small amount.
On Sunday I noted a story in the Sunday Times about Homeserve (HSV) which the paper said would plunge on Monday because of misselling.
I read the report from the company early doors on Monday and through the story wasn't great news my thoughts were a 20% markdown. I was shocked to see a near 50% markdown and bought as soon as I could, couldn't manage to get any at the low but I got 1,000 at 269.26.
My guess is the overshoot on the downside was probably caused by automatic stop loss selling. The shares went into auction so I also picked some up on the spreads at 306. I think they will head back up to the 400 level and I think in the end it'll be a storm in a teacup. They're around 340 now so already in good profit. I guess I'm aware I shouldn't be greedy but the company has addressed the issue well and seems to be in control so for now, I hold. At 400 I'd probably bank. I'll probably shift a stop loss up under the price to ensure I get a profit out of it.
Gamble Filtronic's (FTC) shares on the order book didn't look good and they looked like they would fall below 20 so I got out at just over 20p for a loss of £440. However a few days later they fell further and so I took a chance and picked some up, 15,000 at 16.2p. Nothing much will happen with them this year but management thinks next year could be a change of fortune. On the risky side so small stakes only.
Finally you may think I'm crazy given I already have tons of this share but I couldn't resist a top up in Kentz (KENZ) on a dip yesterday and picked up another fiver on a spreadbet at 465. It remains a big hope for me. Doubled on the initial spreadbets I still hold and up on the two recent top ups. With its massive cash balance there seems little downside and plenty of upside potential. They are now in the FTSE 250, so it tends to drift if that index drifts but looking ahead a couple of years I think it will get bought out at a much higher price. It did actually hit 500p at one point, I suspect it will get back there once the market settles.
Portfolio highlights:
The portfolio has risen a bit since I last updated despite this week's shocks.
I'd first like to sing the praises of a share that I've held for a long time and have topped up on over time. Generally it just goes up, it generates tons of cash and the dividend yield is terrific.
I'm up on it by more than £20 grand. And then the dividends on top. Yesterday it announced yet another special dividend this time of 5p which it pays next week. I'm talking about Microgen (MCGN). It's a simply terrific company that keeps generating tons of cash, it has £25m net cash and profits are up too.
The special dividend next week shows how confident the management is despite economic uncertainty of the moment. I suspect someone will snap up this company at some stage and it could go for a very tasty premium, perhaps even 250p.
Coastal Energy continues to come up with success stories and up over £2,500 on these now. Between updates though they tend to drift if the market does but I hope to hold longer term.
Eros has been a big star and has risen fast in the last couple of weeks yielding profit of £1,000 and already reaching and beating my target. However as I like holding onto winners I;ve held on here for what looks like more to come. 260 now is where it needs to break through and over the last 2 weeks there have been two encouraging statements.
Bid target Entertainment One sits around 200p and us holders are still waiting and wondering if a bid will happen, maybe it will take a lot longer than I thought. It will be a bit disappointing if it isn't but then again the company looks worth 180-190p without one and I've still doubled my money on it regardless.
Telecom Plus continues to be a shining star. I suspect it will buzz around 7 quid till the next re-rating but in the meantime happy to have the whopping dividends and it remains a fabulous long-term play Total profits here are well in excess of £50,000 and way more than that personally - plus all those lovely dividends. I would think these would be trading at a tenner within about a year.
My long-term drugs hold BTG Group keeps coming up with promising statements with revenues well ahead of expectations, probably one to hold onto for at least another couple of years and a nice doubler.
I keep wondering whether to bank the rest of the Ocado short as there is a profit there of more nearly £4,000 It doesn't go up much with the main market but wonder if I am being too greedy expecting any further falls. It seems to have support at 90p. For the moment still short.
Avon Rubber does get affected a bit by the main market and can't head over 300p.
CML has risen a bit but finds 220 a bit of a struggle.
The long-term Petrofac trade still holds good, was vaguely tempted to top up. Some bid rumours floating about.
In general I'm in a holding pattern just waiting for things to settle down before making too many trades. There should never be any "rush" to make a trade just to make one.
I'm always happy to sit and wait it out and in the meantime the portfolio goes well.
