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Right now markets are in a mess
Goodness, they continue to be like a cocaine addict. Up, down, happy then depressed. You have no idea what they are going to be like on any specific day. Will they be on a high or on a crashing low.
More lows than highs recently though. And it goes through so many moods in just minutes every day.
Well, of course it is all about fear. Are loads of countries going to fail?
Will money no longer be worth anything? I hope not because I have no real skills at all. Except I think I could clean windows quite well. Bungalows only though as I'm scared of heights.
Right now markets are in a mess. And the politicians across the Euro Zone appear to be giving no leadership at all. They seem totally blank and unable to come up with any real action.
So it's no wonder people wonder whether they should be investing or not. I am sure you, like me, are shouting: "FFS please sort it out you useless bunch of (insert rude words I know you say, don't think I don't know)
It's time for some bold new ideas and there is nothing on the table. Not even knives and forks. Not a sausage.
Oh Except for a council tax freeze here (big deal!). Does that mean council officials will do some work instead of sitting at their desks doing their online shopping and looking at their facebook pages?
Euro leaders should be coming together and making a blanket big and decisive tax cut across the board to stimulate the economies. as I said above, what is the point of big taxes on a shrinking take when better to take smaller amounts from a growing take?
Is there any good news? Not much, except one thing to always remember is the markets look ahead and will predict an end to the troubles some way before that happens in reality. Remember how in March 2009 they turned upwards? They always turn up when you least expect it. Usually when you are resigned to the thought you will never be able to make a bean from the market ever again.
It's amazing how sentiment can suddenly change so from my point of view I don't think all is lost yet!
More good news?
There is an awful lot of Greek-Euro-debt-bank-crisis-France-oh no-bugger it-lastman standing-we're all doomed-tescos value from now on-toldyounottobuysharesyouidiot- priced in already.
Any more? Erm.... well looking around it is like a fantastic sale. There are bargains galore out there as scared punters have been forced to sell everything good or bad due to leverage.
My guess. Those brave enough to pick up good strong companies soonish or later this year will reap big rewards. Got to be brave though. I even think quite soon it might be a good time for beginners in the market
Any more? Well some say they might announce more QE this week. That would push the market up. There - that is all the good news I can think of right now. Oh, well except at least the market is up a lot today. Though it probably means it will be down a lot tomorrow. Given up worrying about it now.
What have I been up to? Strangely not that much this week, but last week I sold off some things that looked too volatile, still kept hold of the defensive ones paying good dividends. I'm sitting on a wad of cash too. And also I know I am off to tenerife over half term soon and don't want to be sitting there all day watching volatile shares when I want to be lazing by the pool.
Also I continue use the FTSE supershort (see the chapter on that in Naked Trader 3) to make some money on the downside in the isa and also using ftse spreadbets.
And I am tentatively trying to pick up the odd share on my shortlist on a really bad day when they are down a lot. Then my thought is, well sit with it for a bit, if it goes down flog and try and buy back lower another time, or else if I think it is a really good price, stay with it.
I've also gone into more cash because you need firepower for those really bad days which are always the best time of course to buy. And I've axed anything that is really volatile or under the cosh because there is no point in holding them for now. And on top of that it's just too tiring to have too many positions open in this kind of manic market.
Okay so the buying and selling highlights are:
One or two picked up on a bad day, but as I said given the trecherous conditions right now, probably tight stops.
I picked up some CML Micro (LON:CML) getting 1,000 at 195. Looks a nice little company capable of good growth (of course another meltdown and bets are off). Looked a good one to pick up on weakness
Similar comments to one I have made a few quid on before, Zotefoams (LON:ZTF) which was sold down to exactly where it always bounces back at 120 so I bought 3,000 at 122p. I'm looking for a climback to 150-160 if the market improves. On current figures it looks a steal in the 120s.
I think both CML and Zotefoams are nice little below the radar shares that could give a nice return in time. If worst comes to worse and the market tanks further and they fall, it will be a matter of quick out, small loss and return lower. Zote pays a dividend of near 4%.
I bought back some Gulf Keystone (LON:GKP) on the spreads today at 128 after selling the last lot, see below.
As mentioned above given these current crazy market conditions I sold a lot off - normally I try and let winners run but not applying the rule in the right here and now because when stuff goes down now it really goes and again for right now would rather come out and wait till the dust settles. The other point is I had bought some of these recently as it seemed likely we were getting near a bottom, however until politicians sort it out there still seems downside risk and after making such good profits in the last two years I am loath to give too much back.
I guess in summary I think trying to buy on lows is fine but better to quit fast for now, grabbing a profit or a small loss quickly rather than hanging on because when the markets lurch down at the moment it happens fast. Some of these are part sales, holding onto longer-term positions bought a lot lower.
Harvey Nash (LON:HVN) at 64 (profit £200). New Brit (LON:NBPO) went at 850.5 (profit £43) (Keeping hold of the long-term position there). Ophir (LON:OPHR) 281.1 (Loss £29), Molins (LON:MLIN) at 89 (profit£180) , Kofax (LON:KFX) 272.9 (Profit £172), Shaft Sinker (LON:SHFT) 133 (Loss £189, it shafted and sank me for the second time) Oxford at 796 (Profit £258) Azem 237 (Profit £271)Microgen (LON:MCGN) 150 (Profit £430 - holding on to the long-term positions), Character (LON:CCT) 172 (Profit £664) Photo Me (ASX:PTO) 51.4 (Profit £473) Orosur (LON:OMI) 60.6 (Profit £812) Aggreko (LON:AGK) 1744 (Profit £350, holding the main longer-term bulk), Exillon (LON:EXI) 257.2 (Profit £144).
Spreadbets: Gulf 148, (Profit £180 - missed out on a massive profit, could have taken in the 180s), (Bought back at 128 this morning) Cape (LON:CIU) 484, profit £70 (looking to buy back)
Of the above, I will probably buy some of them back.
Portfolio highlights:.
Recent buy Eros (LON:EROS) is slightly higher, produced another decent statement this week and continues to look very cheap like a lot of shares in the market. Looks like it has massive support in the current area. RWS (LON:RWS) too has held well and this under the radar one could do well perhaps later in the year,
Very disappointed with the fall this week in Coastal Energy (LON:CEO) - it seems to mirror the Dow because of its listing in canada but keeps coming up with excellent statements. So while disappointed, I hold on here as I still think there is an oil giant in the making. It is gaining back some ground today.
Bid target Entertainment One (LON:ETO) remains where it is - looks like it won't rise until some sort of announcement, still even with the bid off and a price falling back to 160 I'm still in major profits and in the end it doesn't matter as at some point in the future it'll be higher given its current trading. Should work out fine in the end and in any case already doubled my money here.
Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) updated trading today. What a share and my biggest holding by some. It hasn't budged in the recent meltdown. It continues to motor supported by N Power. A very confident statement from absolutely top notch management. Head man Charles Wigoder has proved yet again what a business genius he is. It continues to collect customers and distributors and as it does so its margins improve. I reckon FTSE 100 beckons here by 2020. I expect to hold long-term. Total profits here are well in excess of £50,000 and way more than that personally - plus all those lovely dividends. I would think these would be trading at a tenner within about a year.
Kentz (LON:KENZ) has held reasonably well in the melee though in a loss on the two recent top ups though balanced by nega profits on the original buys. They are now in the FTSE 250, so it tends to drift if that index drifts but looking ahead a couple of years I think it will get bought.
My long-term drugs hold BTG Group (LON:BGC) pulled off a very nice statement today with revenues well ahead of expectations, probably one to hold onto for at least another couple of years and a nice doubler.
Dialight (LON:DIA) has held up pretty well too as has shares like Alternative Networks (LON:AN). Alternative reported yesterday and it was pretty confident with the best sign being reiterated advice the dividend will be increasing year in year. It has plenty of cash too.
The Ocado (LON:OCDO) short continues to pay handsomely and regretting taking some proift on it recently. Looks like some further downside there but I am not far off banking the profit. Avon Rubber (LON:AVON) has fallen back a bit but on balance I stick with it. Domino and Blinkx (LON:BLNX) shorts all going okay.
So the stategy continues for me.
Buy the odd bargain on a really bad day. If it works and the market rises I'll hold on. If it doesn't and the market lurches down, get out fast and look for lower prices. Use FTSE spreadbets and the supershort for the ISA to short on the good days.
