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I do wonder if all the fear around is causing the markets to go down
I do wonder if all the fear around is causing the markets to go down. And I wonder if all the fear is simply misplaced.
I've read a lot of company statements in the last week and I have yet to find one with a massive warning in it.
Most have either matched expectations or are ahead and most seem to be reasonably confident of the future.
If I hadn't had my brain full of all the stuff on the TV and was simply going from reports my view would have been while there is no massive growth around a lot of companies are doing ok, thank you very much.
So as mentioned above the TV in my office that used to be on a lot is either nearly always off or I'm finding other things.
One bizarre programme is called "Bargain Hunt"
Teams buy rubbish bits of naff antiques from retailers - and then send them to an auction - which is of course populated, by, er, well retailers who need a mark up.
So in effect they are buying with the mark up in then selling it back to those who mark it up in the first place and wonder why they lose money in the process. All the teams lose, it's daft!!
Anyhow, I've always found it much easier to make decisions about investing without all the "clutter" of other people.
Like the news, Doomberg, bulletin boards, experts, tipsheets... all of these things simply fill one's head with other people's stuff. On top of that most people don't have a clue in the first place especially the experts and journalists.
Anyhow in the main this week after a manic August, I've had a quiet week. Having banked a lot of profit and mainly in defensives I'm idly still using the supershort to make some money from the downside.
And I continue to buy the FTSE in the low 5000s and sell or short once it gets to the 5400-5500 level.
I got a nice long on around 5085, with the ftse rising nicely today thinking of cashing it in.
With so much volatility about I'm sitting on the sidelines sharewise in the main waiting for the dust to finally settle. But, I am still picking up what I see I think are bargains which will make me money when markets rise. I've got a nice shortlist of really good companies (I'll go through them at the seminar) that I am looking to bag at cheap prices.
I picked up some Gulf Keystone (LON:GKP) on a spreadbet (as it's aim though not for much longer) for £30 at 142.
This one is a big fave among private investors - pi's often get involved in the really awful oil companies and don't seem satisfied till they do all their dough, I've met enough of them to know they fall in love with the worst. However I think this one could end up a gem. I got some in my sipp last week and I followed up with the spreadbet. Results today did not disappoint. It's got an aggressive expansion programme and is going to move from the aim to main market. It's down a bit today on not surprising profit taking.
This will put it right into the FTSE 250 and with oil production targets it has, a potential FTSE 100 entry is not out of the question if its potential is realised. I'll stick with the spreadbet for now and add to the ISA once it moves to the main market.
I'm looking around for bargains still at lows and I picked up some Exillion (LON:EXI) at 242.8 - looks to pretty well oversold here so a tuckaway.
Hurrah!! Entertainment One (LON:ETO) has paid off bigtime for me now, having bought quite a number in the 80s today's price of near 200 gives me a double and a bit and very glad I picked some more up recently at 150.
Today the company comfirmed it was in talks for a sale. This company has so many top shows like Peppa Pig and Ben and Holly, a huge valuable library and also some top movies.
Given more than one party is involved I'd be really surprised if it wasn't bid for at nearer 250 than 200, and if I was a market maker I would have pitched it at 220. So I could hardly resist buying more after the announcement and picked up another 2,000 at 187.5. And more than that slightly higher but I think there is enough on the site now!
It's rare the market gives you anything for free, but ETO really looks a goodie at under 200p now. Downside is limited to 160-170 anyhow yet the upside could be 250-300. And someone is going to buy it at some point so to me it really is a question of sitting on them till it happens. Almost free money eventually and maybe even quite soon. Lovely. And even if a bid doesn't happen eventually they will be worth more anyhow.
I've taken some profits on the Ocado (LON:OCDO) short at 110 for a profit of £2,430. I've taken part profits as there is a trading statement on Monday, and it's in case there is anything good in it (well you never know) and they have pretty much halved already since I shorted them so downside is more limited. If there is a dead cat bounce on Monday I might well get stuck in again.
The recent attempt at bargain hunting still looks okay though that could change fast. Kofax (LON:KFX) sits a little higher as does Cape (LON:CIU). Just after I nipped a few Shaft Sinkers (LON:SHFT) a big seller drove the price down though it recovered a bit though I held on and in a small loss. I'm hoping it will still pay off though buying a share with "shaft" and "sinker" in the title may well be asking for trouble...
New Brit stays callm as ever. (LON:NBPO). It's been a brilliant profit maker and dividend payer for me over the last 2-3 years - I did take some profits last time of over £3,000 and sitting on a near £7,000 profit still on my original buy.
Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) remains the star of the show at just under 7 quid with those buys on fear days looking good. Total profits are well in excess of £50,000 and way more than that personally - plus all those lovely dividends. I suspect 700 ish is the limit of upside for right now but 1000 looks on the cards for later next year.
Kentz (LON:KENZ) produced a super fabulous report and in better times I'm sure they would be over a fiver, as it is still in a nice profit on these and feel sure eventually the ones I bought recently will pay off. They head into the FTSE 250 in the next couple of days. Now hitting 460 which puts all the buys into a profit.
Coastal Energy (LON:CEO) too and is going well, it keeps coming up with successful drilling reports and this overlooked company could have massive upside in my opinion and already up nearly £2,000 on it.
Dialight (LON:DIA) has held up pretty well too as has shares like Alternative Networks (LON:AN).
Avon Rubber (LON:AVON) won another decent contract supplying masks to the USA and has risen nicely again and back near then 300p level and nice profits building on this, the original buy and the top up.
Character's (LON:CCT) profits will be flat this year they said yesterday and sensibly were careful with stock for later this year. ETO's takeover shows it could too be a bid target. Risky Cadogan (LON:CAD) has stayed strong with institutions picking up shares.
London Capital spreadbet is really paying off now, they must have made a lot in August and there has been some heavy buying coming in with the spreadbet up nearly £1,500, looks like more to come.
So the stategy contines for me.
Buy the odd bargain on a really bad day. Use FTSE spreadbets and the supershort for the ISA to short on the good days. Think about buying the FTSE in the low 5000s and sell or short once getting near 5500.
Although as many of you know after 12 years I do want to quit doing these updates sometime soon, I feel though while things are rocky it might be of even more interest to see how I handle the bad times so on that basis I am going to keep going for a while longer! However please do not be shocked if also I suddenly retire. One mad email too many could knock me over the edge. But I think I will see this year out though, and do intend to at least start the next!
I've earmarked next year to write a novel (fiction not finance) - that's my number one aim so if the website gets in the way of the time I need it will have to go. Or maybe I should just take a year off. We'll see.
