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But the markets are proving resilient to various crises
Well, they continue to look a little fragile but not too bad considering the economic problems around the world. They don't seem to want to totally tank.
Actually it wouldn't be so bad if they did, kind of get it over with! But the markets are proving resilient to various crises and end up brushing them off. Maybe they are used to it.
People often email me and ask stuff like "What do you think of the Greek crisis, will the markets fall further".
I reply I don't have a clue and don't really care nor have I any idea at all what might happen in the future. All I want to do is follow the market slowly whichever way it goes. I'm not an economist nor a soothsayer.
So it is pointless asking me! Try one of the suited blokes that spout their predictions on the TV.
But don't believe for a second they know what they are talking about! Also don't believe the false charting gurus or elliott wavers or whatever. Especially the ones that have spouted doom and gloom for months. Of course they will be right sometime.... but they are usually wrong for nearly all of the time!
In general I would say the time to buy recently has been on the day of biggest fear about a crisis in one country!
It never happens. The market never gives you easy money. It doesn't happen. Well it just did for me probably for the first and only time!
I had just come back to my desk with a cup of tea and toast at just past 11am. If I had been even 2 minutes later back at my desk this would never had happened.
Just before the tea break I was looking at some positions and wondering whether to buy some more Laird to add to the ones I already had. They looked cheap but I wasn't sure yet so I had a break before checking level 2.
As I sat down I saw the news announcement symbol come up and I pressed it. "Rule 2 announcement" it said. "Hey!" I thought. "Doesn't that mean a bid offer of some kind?" I had Tradefair open and immediately bought £30 at 143, it went through in an instant.
I then clicked on the story and my eye boggled when I saw a bid mentioned in the 170s I think. I pressed £30 buy again and got some more this time at 150p.
About a minute later the price was in the 170s. An instant profit of nearly £2,000.
Then I thought: Why why did I not buy £100 then another £100??? Arrrgggghhhh, I thought then I really should have just been pleased that with a huge slice of luck and help from Tradefair I'd literally bought a bid just as it happened.
This will never happen again. I can only guess the reason it happened was "Rule 2 announcement" sounds boring and that is why the market was so slow to move giving me the chance.
The shares are now knocking 200p on the chance of an upped bid making it a £3,000 profit plus the profit I have on my normal shares position bought before.
Anyhow I share this story with you because it is such a rare event. One thing perhaps to say: If you just happen to be at your monitor and a news story flashes up click on it fast! You never know!
Of course the only thing is the bid might not happen in which case it'll go back down again so maybe I ought to beware, a profit isn't a profit till banked!
I've topped up on Oxford Instruments (LON:OXIG) getting 500 at 847.5. They fell back just after I bought! But still, as I mentioned when I bought them on a spreadbet, looks a lovely company on its way to a tenner at least. Already up nicely on the spreadbet. I might hang on if they break a tenner as shares going through a tenner often bust through dramatically.
I sold Character (LON:CCT) for a loss last week but I said I would buy back if they fell much lower, indeed they did and I bought back getting 2000 at 139.3. Just too cheap to ignore! Then the company confirmed there is nothing amiss with a trading statement and the shares are going up again. I would think they would head back up to near the 200 level from which they should never have departed. Sometimes markets are funny things. We all sell at the same time assuming something is wrong when sometimes there isn't anything wrong at all.
I've topped up on the wonderful Microgen (LON:MCGN), I noticed it was going up again so I lobbed in for another 2,500 at 146. Since then it looks like someone bought around 1,5m shares ish. Could be more good news is on the way? Microgen remains a cracker and some lovely profits of more than £20,000 for the site. What a lovely share this has been since I bought it live at a seminar at 45p. It holds its value and slowly advances. Up again today, and it has also paid out some nice dividends.
Onto spreads and I have shorted Ocado (LON:OCDO) again getting £30 at 210. Shorting means I am betting on it to go down. The valuation remains a mystery to me and I feel it is only a matter of time before it tanks. Waitrose, its supplier is about to go head to head with Ocado in London. I just don't get why anyone would buy it at this valuation except for the outside bid from a supermarket who might want its vans. A guaranteed stop at say 250 would limit any loss on that. It issues results next week and is expected to declare a profit for the first time. Well, I guess that could lift the price. But then again it is expected to make a loss again in 2013. Anyhow I just don't get the valuation of this one at all. However I have fought Mr Market on this a few times and have both won and lost on it.
Charter (NASDAQ:CHTR) issued a profits warning. I don't normally touch shares with a warning but the 30% off seemed way overdone - also one of Charter's divisions is actually doing well. Anyhow got a spreadbet on this one, probably short term for a tenner at 515p. I think it will head back to 600ish.
You may remember a while back I made a fortune on Supergroup (LON:SGP). I sold way too early and it went up even more crazily after I sold it to nearly 20 quid! However it has since come back down to earth and I couldn't resist picking up a tenner at 831. 800p seems fair value for the mo and there could be some upside back up to a tenner or so. It's madly volatile though and can move a quid in a day easily.
Two sells: Avation just hasn't taken off and even a good statement couldn't do it so I gave up and sold at 117 for a profit of £278. I had a brilliant run with the short of Glencore (LON:GLEN) and decided to grab the profits at 466 which are a very nice £660.
That makes total profit for the site today of £938. (Sadly I thought I could easily work that out in my head but after 5 second I reached for the calculator. Another brain cell gone)
PORTFOLIO HIGHLIGHTS
Recent buys are all going nicely - Ms International (LON:MSI) has cruised nicely over 300 and I believe further decent upside there as the market continues to rerate it.
Latchways (LON:LTC) too keeps bouncing higher on a re-rating.
Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) also getting a re-rating after its entry to the FTSE 250. Bounced right up to 700 before dropping back to not surprising profit taking. I suspect it will go quiet for a while now ranging between 6 and 7. Day to day price action doesn't interest me and indeed I hardly ever glance at is as I think I'll be selling these shares one day in the 1500-2000 area. Just a question of waiting. I have well over £200,000 of these shares for the slow steady increase in capital and the big dividend which brings me a good yearly income. Website profit for the shares must be well over £30,000 though I'm too lazy to add it up. Profits in real life are nearer £150,000.
Alternative Networks (LON:AN) heads back up after the profit takers have done. This one I feel is a bit like Telecom Plus were barring an exceptional event it ought to carry on higher with profits and dividends just keep rising . I would expect them to hit 400 within a year.
Volex (LON:VLX) held very well when the market tanked and that is a good sign. it's on the rise again. Hyder (LON:HYC) has pushed on over 400 so resisted the urge to bank some nice profits. Capital Drill (LON:CAPD) holds above a quid after it reported three good contract wins and another from BH Billiton (LON:BHP). Continues to look a nice long-term hold ignoring short-term fluctuations.2
Gresham (LON:GHT) is quietly still going higher under the radar! It's gradually lifting unnoticed by the market, which is fine by me!
The short in Linkedin (NYSE:LNKD) is going very well indeed with profits of over £2,000 already! It is shortable again with Tradefair who I used. And the Mothercare (LON:MTC) short remains in a good profit.
Entertainment One (LON:ETO) tries to rise but doesn't seem to want to go higher for now even though it came up with an excellent statement, Peppa Pig is booming in the USA and it looks alike a great share to hold onto long term. A library worth a fortune too. I reckon it will power up to 200 odd from here in time.
TT Electronics (LON:TTG) hasn't done much for me yet but 200p looks like becoming support.
London Capital Group (LON:LCG) can't seem to hit over 80p for now. The Vitec Group (LON:VTC), an unsung hero of the portfolio reported great results and I'm up and over £4,000 profit here. Looks good for a few more points. Electrocomponents (LON:ECM) has been disappointing and it's heading towards a yellow.
Dialight (LON:DIA) can't crack the 750 though support in the low 700s. It is expanding into Japan. The website holds profits of nearly £40,000. In reality, as those who've come to seminars have seen, my profits actually way greater than this.
Similar story with Carclo (LON:CAR) this is a nice long-term hold where I have doubled my money. Exillon (LON:EXI) didn't manage to hold the 450 level, however plenty of support in the low 400s which is fine for now. Avon Rubber (LON:AVON) holds well, already up more than 30% since buying recently, it has support now at 300. It's trying to push higher.
Kentz (LON:KENZ) goes from strength to strength and is going to move to the main market and about time. Once it does will get some in my ISA. Until then happy to hold in a spreadbet where I'm in profit by over £5.000. It's weakened a bit but that is good as dying to get some in the isa!
Yule Catto (LON:YULC) has at last picked up after some poor days and looks like it has bottomed at 200 and seems very undervalued. Now trying for over 230/ Picked up a dividend there. BTG (LON:BGC), long-termer continues to look good has nicely doubled and looks strong this week after another good statement.
Harvey Nash (LON:HVN) has slid after getting into the small cap, I put it down to the fact it is now on the order book so I've stuck with it.
Petrofac (LON:PFC) remains a core hold. Though easy for me to say that as I bought in the 350 area. Together with spinoff Enquest (LON:ENQ) sees me sitting on profits of £30,000. Porvair (LON:PRV) is on the way back after some weakness.
