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If it's a remain vote likely the markets will swing up

Published: 15:44 09 Jun 2016 BST

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My next update is June 30th so by then we'll know if we are in or out. And frankly thank God!!

I'm sure like me you're sick of the whole thing, just eager to get it over with.

As I write this on the 9th the odds have come in on Brexit to 3/1 from 4/1. So a couple of weeks ago staying in looked a dead cert. Now not so sure. Although it is long odds on for remain so the bookies still think remain is nailed on at the moment anyway.

The younger you are the more likely you are to stay in. The older and grumpier you are the more likely you are an outer. I'm in despite being old and grumpy as if we stay in shares will rise nicely. And if we vote out there will head south for a short time. The oldies are more likely to vote.

Of course it makes life trickier than normal. If the vote is out there will probably be a knee
jerk reaction down. But then I suspect it won't be long before normal service is resumed and
a likely good strategy is to start buying quite quickly on any fear driven sell off.

If it's a remain vote likely the markets will swing up.

Our lives will carry on as normal on exit vote.  Indeed I don't think even much happens for a couple of years if there is an out vote.

I suspect either way after a few days of volatility things will get back to normal and we will wonder: What was all that about?

Anyway there is no real answer. The markets one way or another will like it once the uncertainty is resumed and we can all get on with things.

One way or the other though as long as you have cash or leverage to use maybe it will be possible to make money either way.

If it's brexit, wait for a couple of days and then buy up all the lovely bargains. If it is remain, again get buying fast and enjoy a nice rally, then sell up for the summer! That's my plan, let you know what I did in my next update on June 30th.

Those of you planning FTSE bets etc beforehand I urge caution. If you get caught on the wrong side of it you could lose a lot.

Perhaps consider guaranteed stops. But I suspect wherever you put a stop it
will get taken out.

Remember the FTSE trades 24 hours up to 10pm on Fridays and from 11pm Sunday nights with most firms. If the vote is to leave expect massive volatility in the middle of the night.

The spread  firms are worried and they are all going to increase margin requirements heavily to make sure they are not stuck with people who can't pay them. So if your margin level is high be careful. You may get an unexpected demand for money. Be careful out there!

Anyway  a reminder, always a great time to buy when there is panic!

Personally I've skimmed  a lot of spreadbets, low on leverage and I have more than £250,000 sitting in ISA cash which I can use after the event for opportunities that could arise.
***
Seminar with me on July 11th : early bird discount available, email me at robbiethetrader@aol.com for details.
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Onto recent trading for me. It's  been rather a fine year so far thanks to a couple of bids that went in and some longer-term trades that have kept going up. And some IPOs that have really paid off.

I've also managed to cut any losses quickly except for one which caught me unawares, still even that there wasn't too much damage.

I've sold and topsliced quite a bit to raise cash for post vote opportunities. And also because a lot of trades have reached target and top of their valuation for now.

Onto one or two buys too despite Brexit (I am either fearless or stupid. Maybe both).

I bought some Proactis (LON:PHD) . It's reached a supplier network deal with P and O and the shares are breaking out of a range. 

It has a very strong orderbook and balance sheet too. It seems to be going from strength to strength and I think given time 100p or thereabouts looks possible here. Nicely under the radar too.

I've also bought Benchmark (LON:BMK) .

There was a reverse takeover of another company which should boost profits by a massive amount and I don't think that is reflected yet in the price.

It also has a lot of products in development which should help push up the price as and when they come on stream. So lots to aim at here with I think at least another 20% upside available.

Gulf Marine Services (LON:GMS) looks interesting though risky. Beaten down badly by the oil price it now looks tremendous value, so much so I do wonder whether a bidder might swoop in here as it has a lot of very useful and valuable assets.

Also I believe with a lot of decommissioning going on, it should have quite a lot of work on. So could be a high risk high reward play with a stop though probably essential. If profit forecasts are right though it looks very cheap indeed.

I've also dabbled in a little spreadbet gamble on Restaurant Group (LON:RTN) - that has had a torrid time but now it starts to look value and there are some rumours floating around of bid interest which could push the price up substantially if it happened.

I've shorted Emis which looks near the top of any sensible valuation after a good run targetting a run back down to the 960-70 area.

As I said earlier a lot of trades have come good, many have reached or gone way beyond targets so I have done a lot of topslicing and selling - all are still good companies so I might buy back after the euro vote.

Waterman reached target nicely and seems to struggle at 100p so sold for  a profit of £609. Looks cheap still though, so as Arnie says, I'll be back!

Interquest also hit target so was sold for profits of £675 and £825 - total profit for that one then of £1,500.  Sold half Fxi for a profit of  £739  - keeping the other half longer-term.

Sold some small Cer for a profit of £368 keeping the main bulk longer-term.

Last of the softcat went at over target for profit of £795 and £2023 for a combined of profit of £2,818.

Ncc had a good run for took profits there of  £590.The longer-term sbet in  Dom has gone for  a profit of £2,970.

The trading shares in TEP nicely well passed the target so those have gone for a nice profit of £2,184.  Look went at target for £482.

So total profits banked for the site are a nice £12,260.  

Elsewhere recent trades are really doing well. Alliance Pharma is 15% up and still going higher. Should be more to come there id it can crack 50p.

Motorpoint has been a great buy and was tipped by the Mail on Sunday. Midwich too has proved a real cracker. CMC results were very good and it should benefit a lot from likely brexit volatility coming up. Other spreadbet firms should get in the money too.

Avon Rubber has been a great performer rising strongly since I bought and I'm looking for a rise up to a tenner.

Character Group produced a nice statement and shares have been rising now quite nicely, hopefully a rating up to 600
coming.

GB Group produced a very nice ahead report.  Trades are now up £32,000 but personally I've made more than £100,000 on these.  Some lovely rises from some recent buys.  

Paysafe is trying to come back after a poor run.

Iomart came up with a very decent statement, I think it is just a question of being patient for an inevitable bid prob around 350p.  Good luck with whatever you decide to do about Brexit volatility. There is no answer and all we can do is the best we can. Just be careful not to go "all in" with a FTSE short or long as if you're on the wrong side of it you'll get caned.

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