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Crazy volatility continues on the market


I'm totally engrossed writing a book on trading psychology. Hours go by and writing it and reading stories and other stuff and I am fascinated.

it seems to me now there are certain types suited to trading and certain types aren't - and women are generally MORE suited to it.

Thanks so much for stories you have been sending me - I still have a quarter left to write so any more contributions welcome..

Your trading mistakes, failings, mishaps and why all welcome and also if you fixed certain things that were stopping you from winning.

Anything on why your brain stopped you, or whether you figured out something about your own personality..

Free copy of the book if I use your story, please send to me [email protected] with "story" in subject line. Please include your postal address if you want to be considered for free book.

Once it is finished I'll be posting bits on pieces here in advance till it is published. Next after that is an update on my Spreadbetting book and then.. my debut novel (fiction comedy-thriller).

Hopefully all three will be coming out sometime this year.

Crazy volatility continues on the market and it seems to hinge on the latest oil price or China or whatever it is people want to gamble on or not.

If you're in reasonably good companies there doesn't seem much need for panic and I've been using FTSE shorts and ETF's in my ISA (see my book chapter What to do) for more information on how I handle a market downturn.

All in all during a tumble it seems best to concentrate on not losing too much capital rather than expecting to make much.

A mix of covering shorts with judicious buys on weakness seems the way to go.

Volatility seems to drive even the most sensible crazy as they start overtrading, trying to second guess what will happen next, crazily trading indicies up and down or buying gold. Selling up in a panic, even good stuff.

Remember newspapers, twitter, and the rest of it all sell on fear.

Panic and selling everything on that is crazy. A bit of short covering is fine but there are also lots of bargains appearing all over the place. I have taken
profits on most of the shorts for the mo.

Way too many bargains actually and the weakness has made me feel quite contrary and I've been buying. You might remember I have loads of cash sitting and waiting and I spent a bit of it in the last few days.

I made a lot with trades on Pets at Home (LON:PETS) last year and definitely time to get in on market weakness.

We're about to get a new kitten and pet owners like me will simply spend whatever it takes on our pets!

I've bought quite a few in fact and I'm interested in a run up in these
shares back up to the 290p area where they got to before. There doesn't seem to be an awful lot of downside from here.

It's a good time to pick up defensive shares (ones that should keep up in a down market) so I picked up a couple.

The management behind Tritax Big Box (LON:BBOX) really seem terrific. A great business, even one that is relatively safe in choppy markets - it's a real estate investment trust but you buy it like a share. Its big thing is to return fantastic dividends (at the mo 5 pc plus)

If you had held this last year overall which I did in my sipp as a safe one you'd have made more than 20%. Not bad,

So hoping in 2016 for 20% including dividends!

it lets warehouse space to big companies (like Tesco) on long-term leases so there is good visibility on earnings. The price tends to be based around the net asset value.

It did a fund raise this week and I get an extra one share for 11 held at 124. BBOX shares go ex dividend on Feb 11 th for 3p so expect a 3p drop on the open that day (beware stop losses!!)

Also on a similar theme ESP pays out a lovely dividends and I topped up on that. Traders seem to ignore these types of shares, considered boring. Well, if you consider 20% over a year boring good luck with finding that elsewhere.

Now going anything but safe!

I've bought a few FXI after a massive tumble.

I had a few still knocking about the Isa from years ago and frankly as they hadn't moved for so long I'd forgotten about them. But noticed a statement which seemed fine and I took no notice but then the shares tumbled, I was a bit late
and ended up with a loss of £232 and profit of £757.

But when they went down to the 120p area so much was knocked off the market cap it seemed worth the risk of buying. Worries are over cash collection. I am not clever enough to know anything about balance sheets.

But at this very low price and with directors buying it looks worth a try, bearing in mind it might be higher risk. I'd probably sell up if it did another big lurch down but for now looks more reward than risk.

There's a full page feature in Shares today on why they think FXI is a buy at these levels. They reckon the cash collection worries are a red herring.

Less risky I bought some Xaar (LON:XAR) which seems to have come down to a reasonable entry point. Bought a couple of times, best price was on direct market access (we'll talk about this on Monday for those of you coming to the seminar).

It's around the prices I got today. It's come back from 550 and that's what I am targetting. It's in an interesting sector and in particular I like the big cash pile - £70m which it could use for new acquisitions. Its packaging revenue has offset China weakness and inroads into 3D printing could pay off.

So I'm in for a potential ride back to the 550 area, possibly could stay with it longer-term. Obviously if the market melts down I'd take a small loss and try another time. The spread is wide and trying to buy another 1,000 at the sell price right now! No luck so far.

I added a new lot of NCC (LON:NCC) - it is in the hot area of security and I think this one could have a great 2016, I have now stacked up on quite a few including in spreadbets and expect to hold for some time to get the best value.

it's been buying up other companies and at some point hoping it will become a bid target itself.

After banking many thousands of profit on Iomart (LON:IOM) I bought some new ones on the market meltdown weakness. After selling a load at just under 300p, a price in the low 200s becomes tempting for a potential ride back up to 300p.

And I made a (probably) final buy on Paysafe (LON:PAYS) Now my biggest holding, unless there is a meltdown this position should continue with a good long-term view for eventual buyout.

I bought Goals on the thought that Mike Ashley had bought in and so perhaps he might be wanting to take it over.Well, that was the thought but the actual statement wasn't very promising so I took a loss of £720. I gave this one too much space and actually could have taken a good profit on it earlier. Feels like a loss of 4-0 on that one. Still, being a Fulham fan used to losing on football!

I sold some of my Kainos and that went for a lovely profit of £3,000. I will probably buy the sold ones back. RBn was falling in the run up to a statement which can be a bad sign so exited with a profit of £175.The report was mixed, looks like a potential buyback at a lower price

QTX has seen strong updates all the way, I topsliced a little to bank a profit of £3,626. Only reason for the topslice was I was getting a touch over heavy on them.

Elsewhere shares in the portfolio have been bouncing up and down with the market, in these conditions I tend to try and stay put if I can. Most have lost a bit of ground but nothing to be especially worried about yet and a hefty short has brought in some profit to cover.

So there isn't an awful lot to say.

ETO (LON:ETO) continues to be a disappointment. Some rumours one of the bigger shareholders want it to put itself up for sale. Cyprotex (LON:CRX ) seems on the move back up.

Those holding up well include mcCarthy and Stone (LON:MCS) which proved a lovely recent buy and is near highs. Paysafe (LON:PAYS) and Worldpay (LON:WPG) bobble up and down in tune with the ftse.

A shout for unsung hero Renew, another great statement, shares are near highs and profits for the site are over £20,000.

So for me right now, relaxing with feet up and see which way things go. If the FTSE sinks below 5700 ish, 5500 is the next stop, below that the feet might have to come down to land some more shorts and some topslicing

Nakedtrader  was created after I left my full-time job as a finance editor for BskyB to trade full-time. I had been writing an diary page for its teletext service since 1998 and decided as I was leaving to transfer that to the internet.
These articles are simply a "diary" of my life, or what you would now call a "blog". I detail what I've bought, sold or shorted and briefly why. I use various spreadbetting companies and stockbrokers to carry out the trades. I ignore commission but also dividends and I reckon the two balance each other up.
So you should be aware this is not a "tipping" site and I do not consider myself, nor do I want to be, a "tipster". In other words tipsters will urge you to "buy" something - and they generally are regulated to do so by the FSA. I simply state I have already bought or sold something personally. Because of that I am not "regulated" - so I am not an authorised "tipster". I am simply a trader who states his positions.
That is quite a big difference. I am not allowed to give what is called "Individual investment advice". And quite right too - I am not trained to do so. What that also means is if you e-mail me and ask me anything along the lines of "Should I buy or sell this share?" I cannot answer you except to say it is your choice! Of course I am more than happy to answer anything to do with general market/educational questions.
You should understand I always have an interest, and sometimes a big interest, in any stock I talk about. For website purposes my buys will often be to smaller stakes than in reality. So although my buys are real enough, as are the prices, I can and often do buy much bigger stakes in the shares. I may also "top up" in shares without declaring it and I will  sometimes deal more often than I mention on the site - mainly because of time pressure, if markets are busy. So though the buys on the site are around the £5,000 mark I may well deal in reality is sizes of £10,000 - £30,000.
My reasoning for this is I simply do not want to encourage people to blindly follow me into something when they do not understand the potential risk. It's ok for me because I can afford to lose money I put into the market. It may not be the case for you.  I am generally a medium term investor holding my shares usually between 1 week and on occasions up to 3 years. Average holding time is probably about 3 months.
So one of my main messages is: don't be tempted to follow me blindly into my choices. Quite often, as I play momentum, a share I have bought may already be much higher than when I bought it, especially as I do not update every day. If you follow me blindly you may be buying at a much higher price and you may end up selling at a much lower one.
You should ALWAYS do your own research and come to your own decisions on share purchases. If you follow me into something and lose money, you only have yourself to blame and not me. You should learn about markets and understand what you are doing before entering them.
The most risky way of trading of all is spreadbetting, which I do quite a bit. You should carefully read all the warnings that the spread betting firms issue together with all the warnings in my books. And never, ever, play with money you cannot afford to lose.
The aim of this site is to entertain, and perhaps stimulate debate, and that is the condition of entry !I really hope you enjoy reading about my triumphs and mistakes, but please, just watch and enjoy my triumphs and learn from my mistakes. Consider this site as entertainment. If this is your first visit to the Nakedtrader website site, I thank you for visiting me, and hope you will find this site useful. 
After reading and agreeing to the disclaimer, click the "I accept" button below. Please remember, I cannot give any specific advice, as to whether you should buy, hold or sell any individual share.
"The investments and other products referred to on the Naked Trader website should in no way be considered "advice" to buy or sell anything.  Naked Trader information is given in general terms only and does not constitute personal advice to any individual.  Investors are responsible for formulating and applying their own strategies based on their own personal circumstances. Naked Trader recommends that you obtain independent financial advice from an FSA-authorised intermediary before investing money.  Information given in previous editions of Naked Trader daily updates may become outdated and should not be relied upon unless confirmed by recent comment

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