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Naked Trader - Markets are always tricky at this time of year



Markets are always tricky at this time of year, at least up to Mid December.

Generally they go down a bit with spikes up in between. The terrorism in France hardly effected them at all. Markets tend to shrug off terrorism these days as sadly it becomes all too common. Indeed
the markets are very strong at the mo. However do be careful about getting involved too much till mid December.

In the main I tend to take profits/losses in November rather than looking at stuff to buy but actually there were some nice looking buys to be had so I did a bit more buying and a bit more selling than I
would usually do around now.

I was interested in selling stuff and have been banking quite a lot of profit to raise cash to play the probable Xmas rally (happens 9 out of 10 times).

Secretly most traders/investors are happy for markets to do down back end of Nov and early Dec as that makes a decent santa rally more likely. We shall see!

Let's start with what I'd consider fairly low risk and one I anticipate I'll hold for some time and that's retirement home builder McCarthy and Stone (LON:MCS) which has listed this month.

(Sounds like an MOR rock band.. and now ladies and gentlemen, please welcome.. McCarthy and Stone.....!)

I bought some as a spreadbet and then some for the ISA. (There is some idiotic rule not letting you buy main market listings in an ISA until they have been listed for a week, such cobblers!)

MCS is in a very lucrative niche and the figures look good - I think it was fairly priced and it's a long-term hold for me.

I've been keeping an eye on Stadium Group (LON:SDM) for a bit as those of you who came to the last seminar know! I was waiting for a dip which happened this week and so picked some up.

Stadium shares look very cheap. Profits are rising strongly and it's buying up other companies as well as growing organically.

Forecast profits are very strong and net debt reasonable. I'm not sure why they are not higher.
They seem to struggle to get above 130 but once that is broken I don't see why 160-170 isn't possible. I'm thinking of about a three month hold here to kick off with.

I picked up some Goal Soccer Centres (LON:GOAL) after noting Mike Ashley picked up nearly 5%. I wonder whether this is a prelude to buying more or even a bid as after a couple of warnings Goal now looks cheap.

I know 5 aside footie well as I manage my son's five a side team! I can easily see where more profits could be made by someone new coming in.

I think these shares have been kicked into touch too much and they could start to motor up the wing for a superb profitable finish.

Look, sorry, I know I just couldn't find any decent football puns. Yellow card for me. Red card for the shares once they've made a decent profit.

(Stadium followed by Goal - there is a theme here...)

I picked up some more Xeros (LON:XSG) which has a brilliant new invention, polymer beads which cleans clothes better, faster and with little water. Great for places drought hit like California.

The first lot I bought for my sipp already have trebled. I picked up a further 1,000 at the brilliant price of 210.25. Price fell when a fundraising was announced at 225p to raise £40m. A great move, I could not understand why the price went under the placing price so put a hopeful order direct on the book at the sell price, lucky for me someone sold them to me! I will cover getting shares at the sell price thus wiping out the spread live at the seminars on the 7th and 14th... I'll stick on some live orders and see if we can get the sell prices on the day.

Onto a large number of sells, either sold as they'd reached where I wanted, they hadn't moved much, or felt the money would be better used elsewhere. I did a bit of a sell splurge over a couple of days axeing stuff I was bored with, hadn't moved or seemed full value for now. I also top sliced (sold bits off the top of quite a few holdings. Too hard to sort these out for the site though).

Part of the reason for sales is to raise a whole heap of cash to play the potential Xmas rally next month. And I now have that whole heap of cash! I

The last of the KBC (LON:KBC) went for  a fantastic profit of  £3,404.And with 32 Red pushing up over a quid and so doubling my money I sold three-quarters of them, for a website profit of £5,810.

I sold some GMS (LON:GMS) , profit  £477 and then bought some back after a statement which saw them lower. Pnld went last week for a tiny profit, breakeven after costs. Dplm, out for a profit of £436 and Rgs was half sold for a profit of  £1,002.

I've finally sold Al Noor (LON:ANH) , was waiting for a counter bid but didn't look like that was going to happen so taken a lovely profit of £7,163.

That makes six bids this year for some fantastic profit, best bid of the year goes to Aga (LON:AGA) which made me many thousands. I am hoping for one more this year with a bit of luck.

With some giant profits banked total profits banked for the site are £17,856.

ETO (LON:ETO) produced a very nice statement this week, tv sales strong, film sales weaker but the outlook looks good. For now, the market isn't moving on them. At some point I bet they will! There is tons of value to  be unlocked in ETO shares, the its catalogue alone is valued at a billion dollars! If shares stay low for much longer I bet there'll be a bid and that would have to be in the 350-400 area.

Long-termer Vec (LON:VEC) reported good news on its drugs pipeline. They do need to crack 180 to venture any higher. Hopefully patience will pay but in any event doubled my money on them.

Iomart (LON:IOM) continues to be strong and is hitting 300. Any bidder will have to be looking at 350-400.

Recent buys are mainly doing ok especially the three new issues, Ibstock, Equiniti (LON:EQN) and Worldpay (Worldpay) . Next 15 has whizzed past target, tempted to topslice at some point. Empresaria continues to empress.

Kainos (LON:KNOS)has proved an amazing performer very fast, up more than 100 points on the first buy. I am getting tempted to bank some profits.

QP (LON:QPP) shares continue to be a close call on holding. Renew (LON:WIND) just carries on up over time very well. Optimal Pay has changed its name to Paysafe (LON:PAYS) and now in tremendous profit. More to come and hopefully in time, a bid. Long-termer Hayward (Hayward) announced a fund raising today at a healthy 90p, more to come and remain patient here.

The lovely GB Group (LON:GBG) just keeps on going  and been in since 20p. To see it with another nought on the end is sensational. I still think it will end up being bid for - but in the meantime sits at highs. See you all again on Dec 17th.

Nakedtrader  was created after I left my full-time job as a finance editor for BskyB to trade full-time. I had been writing an diary page for its teletext service since 1998 and decided as I was leaving to transfer that to the internet.
These articles are simply a "diary" of my life, or what you would now call a "blog". I detail what I've bought, sold or shorted and briefly why. I use various spreadbetting companies and stockbrokers to carry out the trades. I ignore commission but also dividends and I reckon the two balance each other up.
So you should be aware this is not a "tipping" site and I do not consider myself, nor do I want to be, a "tipster". In other words tipsters will urge you to "buy" something - and they generally are regulated to do so by the FSA. I simply state I have already bought or sold something personally. Because of that I am not "regulated" - so I am not an authorised "tipster". I am simply a trader who states his positions.
That is quite a big difference. I am not allowed to give what is called "Individual investment advice". And quite right too - I am not trained to do so. What that also means is if you e-mail me and ask me anything along the lines of "Should I buy or sell this share?" I cannot answer you except to say it is your choice! Of course I am more than happy to answer anything to do with general market/educational questions.
You should understand I always have an interest, and sometimes a big interest, in any stock I talk about. For website purposes my buys will often be to smaller stakes than in reality. So although my buys are real enough, as are the prices, I can and often do buy much bigger stakes in the shares. I may also "top up" in shares without declaring it and I will  sometimes deal more often than I mention on the site - mainly because of time pressure, if markets are busy. So though the buys on the site are around the £5,000 mark I may well deal in reality is sizes of £10,000 - £30,000.
My reasoning for this is I simply do not want to encourage people to blindly follow me into something when they do not understand the potential risk. It's ok for me because I can afford to lose money I put into the market. It may not be the case for you.  I am generally a medium term investor holding my shares usually between 1 week and on occasions up to 3 years. Average holding time is probably about 3 months.
So one of my main messages is: don't be tempted to follow me blindly into my choices. Quite often, as I play momentum, a share I have bought may already be much higher than when I bought it, especially as I do not update every day. If you follow me blindly you may be buying at a much higher price and you may end up selling at a much lower one.
You should ALWAYS do your own research and come to your own decisions on share purchases. If you follow me into something and lose money, you only have yourself to blame and not me. You should learn about markets and understand what you are doing before entering them.
The most risky way of trading of all is spreadbetting, which I do quite a bit. You should carefully read all the warnings that the spread betting firms issue together with all the warnings in my books. And never, ever, play with money you cannot afford to lose.
The aim of this site is to entertain, and perhaps stimulate debate, and that is the condition of entry !I really hope you enjoy reading about my triumphs and mistakes, but please, just watch and enjoy my triumphs and learn from my mistakes. Consider this site as entertainment. If this is your first visit to the Nakedtrader website site, I thank you for visiting me, and hope you will find this site useful. 
After reading and agreeing to the disclaimer, click the "I accept" button below. Please remember, I cannot give any specific advice, as to whether you should buy, hold or sell any individual share.
"The investments and other products referred to on the Naked Trader website should in no way be considered "advice" to buy or sell anything.  Naked Trader information is given in general terms only and does not constitute personal advice to any individual.  Investors are responsible for formulating and applying their own strategies based on their own personal circumstances. Naked Trader recommends that you obtain independent financial advice from an FSA-authorised intermediary before investing money.  Information given in previous editions of Naked Trader daily updates may become outdated and should not be relied upon unless confirmed by recent comment

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