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The Naked Trader

Robbie has been trading full-time since 2001. His book The Naked Trader has become one of the biggest-selling finance books, reaching the top 150 books on Amazon. Trades made and published by Robbie’s have amassed profits over £600,000. You can read about his buys and sells daily on Proactive Investors.


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October is always awful

October 09 2014, 8:39am

MARKETS

October is always awful - big downs and ups and very hard to play.

This time of the year I tend to keep trades to a minimum which usually works out.

New traders should be very careful this time of year. It's so easy to get on the wrong side of a few trades that can suddenly knock you out.

Prices can scoot down then back up as panicking people sell then buy back.

As usual it's best to buy as people are panicking and as the markets retreat.

I'd be a bit wary of buying new issues this month - there are a few on the way and I'd treat each with suspicion that they are all being floated at way too high prices.

Jimmy Choo's float is next week. Are the shares a choo-in?

As far as I could find profits are pretty flat, it has debt and it wants to float between 140 and 180 valuing it at £700m. Looks a way over the top valuation to me - the shoes sell only to the well-heeled (ok I'm all out of shoe puns now)

and luxury shoes are the first to go when the baliffs turn up.

Virgin Money - they didn't want any small investors getting a sniff of the shares at the float price. So I say: "sod them then!"

A better bet possibly might be BCA, British car auctions ie, webuyanycar.com. Problem is though the money's being raised to pay off debt. I suspect one I might shortlist and keep an eye on for the future. Depends on the float price but a good long-term business there.

The FTSE's been getting a hammering - and that has worked a treat for the FTSE shorts I took out at just under 6900. Profits there running around the £20,000 mark which helps counterbalance some of the long-termers that have gone down a bit.

I closed a quarter of them out this morning and tightened the stops on the rest in case the market bounces back strongly.  If it doesn't then I'll still be in. Nice to know whatever happens I'll be bagging some big profits. But with markets down a lot a bounceback would be no surprise.

Right onto some of my trades.

I've shorted Rightmove (LON:RMV) . This is about to face stiff new competition from estate agents themselves who will soon launch a rival service. Could be a right good move for them. Zoopla, recently listed too is stiff competition.

If the estate agents get it right Rightmove could get knocked. Looks like it worth trying a short in it and see how it goes. So I shorted at 2245 and 2238. (That means bet on the shares to go down for new traders.)

I'm making an absolute fortune on shorts on Carpetshite (CPR) over £25,000 personally and I couldn't resist shorting some more last week. Lord Harris is flogging off his shares and the next trading statement is almost certain to be dire. I've been short from 740 and down. I think my big final pay off and banking the profits is not far off.  .

BTW the biggest SB firm isn't allowing shorts in Crapet - however this company does -

 spreadex.com/nakedtrader

 - handy to have an account there as they will deal in the smaller shares no-one else will.

Those of you who read stuff about my life further up know from dealings in my local store, there is something up with M and S.

I'm looking to go short as I can't see the next trading statement is going to be up to much. Well, at least judged by the terrible state my local branch is in.

Onto trades on shares to go up now! As I said above I treat October with a lot of care and only buy something when I really think it's good.

I'd bought quite a lot of Pressure Technologies (LON:PRES) for my pension a while back as those of you who get the sipp email know and have made a decent amount on them and now bought some for the ISA too.

Fundamentals here look good and happy now to have these in the ISA too.

It seems to be in a great space at the moment and it is growing by acqusition, having just bought a New Zealand company and it has agreed a £15m financing deal. Really excellent potential here

Tristel (LON:TSTL) is an interesting one. I've picked some up at 69p. The shares are surprisingly volatile so you have to be careful and it's best to buy them on a dip. 

It deals in a hot market: infection prevention, contamination control and hygiene products, The Company has made five profit upgrades this yer so results due Oct 13th should be good.

I sold the Royal Mail shares I got in the float for a profit of £147. I should have done it a long time ago but forgot I had them as it was such a tiny amount

Blnx (LON:BLNX) went for a profit of £1,130.  They were a high risk play and with heavy selling coming in looked worth banking a profit on them. Ite fell below its previous range so that was an easy one to quit at 183.8 with a loss of £185. . I made a lot on it trading the range previously. But once the range breaks it needs time to see where a new range might establish itself. 

Sold the last of the Restore (LON:RST) for a profit of £1,665. And Hty has been fantastic, with many thousands made and sold most of the rest I have at 307.5 for a profit of £5,650. And Opay (LON:OPAY) went at 516.6 for a profit of £332.  It couldn't clear 520 and sellers kept coming in. However looks like time to buy back is nearly here.

Total profits (minus losses) banked for the site then £7,074

Elsewhere GVC (LON:GVC) continues to be a lovely share. Super profits but the dividends are simply amazing. It goes ex dividend tomorrow so it should start lower but the huge percentage payouts make this share a terrific hold. 

Fantastic news from tuckaway Powerflute. It rose strongly on the back of an reverse takeover - shares have flown higher and now profits up and over £2,500, patience really can pay with the good ones. 

Audioboom (LON:BOOM) where I booked part profits last time raised £8 million in a placing at a reasonable price which is good news for the future and I'll stick with the other half of the holding and considering buying some more.

Iomart is hovering around levels where I would probably sell it and there seems a persistent seller, but I suspect they will head back up as fast as they came down once said seller is done so just about holding.

Scisys (LON:SSY) got a decent contract extension though the share seem stuck, hope for a rerating over 100 at some point. Nice under the radar share which should pay out nicely in time.

Seeing Machines (LON:SEE) seems to be sticking around the 6p area for now, seems worth more to me given all the agreements it has signed such as an agreement with Electro-Motive Diesel ((NYSE:CAT) regarding monitoring fatigue in train drivers.  It does remain a jam tomorrow share but it could pay out big time longer term and patience will be needed. But I have that!!

Regenerisis (OTCMKTS:RNWF) is making a bit of an effort to make a comeback. Yet another good statement from Gulf Marine Services . This under the radar share is really going to pay off sometime with patience!

Nothing can seem to stop Renew, what an amazing share that's turned out to be, nicely doubled and more. Most of the longer-termers are holding up ok in the market markdown like Entertainment One (LON:ETO), Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) , Porvair (LON:PRV) , Jelf (LON:JLF) , OPG, Porvair (LON:OPG) , GB (LON:GB.)  and AL Noor (LON:ANH). The market will probably carry on being hard for October so best thing is to keep trades to a minimum and try not to play shares up and down as volatile markets are very hard to play and your capital could get hit.     

Nakedtrader  was created after I left my full-time job as a finance editor for BskyB to trade full-time. I had been writing an diary page for its teletext service since 1998 and decided as I was leaving to transfer that to the internet.

These articles are simply a "diary" of my life, or what you would now call a "blog". I detail what I've bought, sold or shorted and briefly why. I use various spreadbetting companies and stockbrokers to carry out the trades. I ignore commission but also dividends and I reckon the two balance each other up.

So you should be aware this is not a "tipping" site and I do not consider myself, nor do I want to be, a "tipster". In other words tipsters will urge you to "buy" something - and they generally are regulated to do so by the FSA. I simply state I have already bought or sold something personally. Because of that I am not "regulated" - so I am not an authorised "tipster". I am simply a trader who states his positions.

That is quite a big difference. I am not allowed to give what is called "Individual investment advice". And quite right too - I am not trained to do so. What that also means is if you e-mail me and ask me anything along the lines of "Should I buy or sell this share?" I cannot answer you except to say it is your choice! Of course I am more than happy to answer anything to do with general market/educational questions.

You should understand I always have an interest, and sometimes a big interest, in any stock I talk about. For website purposes my buys will often be to smaller stakes than in reality. So although my buys are real enough, as are the prices, I can and often do buy much bigger stakes in the shares. I may also "top up" in shares without declaring it and I will  sometimes deal more often than I mention on the site - mainly because of time pressure, if markets are busy. So though the buys on the site are around the £5,000 mark I may well deal in reality is sizes of £10,000 - £30,000.

My reasoning for this is I simply do not want to encourage people to blindly follow me into something when they do not understand the potential risk. It's ok for me because I can afford to lose money I put into the market. It may not be the case for you.  I am generally a medium term investor holding my shares usually between 1 week and on occasions up to 3 years. Average holding time is probably about 3 months.

So one of my main messages is: don't be tempted to follow me blindly into my choices. Quite often, as I play momentum, a share I have bought may already be much higher than when I bought it, especially as I do not update every day. If you follow me blindly you may be buying at a much higher price and you may end up selling at a much lower one.

You should ALWAYS do your own research and come to your own decisions on share purchases. If you follow me into something and lose money, you only have yourself to blame and not me. You should learn about markets and understand what you are doing before entering them.

The most risky way of trading of all is spreadbetting, which I do quite a bit. You should carefully read all the warnings that the spread betting firms issue together with all the warnings in my books. And never, ever, play with money you cannot afford to lose.

The aim of this site is to entertain, and perhaps stimulate debate, and that is the condition of entry !I really hope you enjoy reading about my triumphs and mistakes, but please, just watch and enjoy my triumphs and learn from my mistakes. Consider this site as entertainment. If this is your first visit to the Nakedtrader website site, I thank you for visiting me, and hope you will find this site useful. 

After reading and agreeing to the disclaimer, click the "I accept" button below. Please remember, I cannot give any specific advice, as to whether you should buy, hold or sell any individual share.

"The investments and other products referred to on the Naked Trader website should in no way be considered "advice" to buy or sell anything.  Naked Trader information is given in general terms only and does not constitute personal advice to any individual.  Investors are responsible for formulating and applying their own strategies based on their own personal circumstances. Naked Trader recommends that you obtain independent financial advice from an FSA-authorised intermediary before investing money.  Information given in previous editions of Naked Trader daily updates may become outdated and should not be relied upon unless confirmed by recent comment