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Naked Trader - I just try to follow the market - not try and guess it

Published: 16:06 19 Feb 2015 GMT

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MARKETS

Considering all the Greek malarky and the fighting in Ukraine and all - you'd wonder why the markets are pushing highs.

They seem to be taking more notice of falling inflation and some decent figures around the place rather than worrying about anything else.

The Greek problem looks like it will just be pushed down the road a bit but it isn't going away and I suspect at some stage markets will take fright.

When markets are at highs it seems nothing will push them down but it is amazing how sentiment can change so we have to be careful. However they could keep pushing on up. 

As usual I just try to follow it and not try and guess it. Many commentators have been predicting massive falls but they just haven't happened. For the moment I still have ftse shorts in the 6900 area but I will dump those if an obvious break up and breakout over all time highs in the 6930 area happen. 

TRADES

When a company gets bid for and then it is turned down, it's amazing how often said company falls to a bid again at some point in the future. I've had quite a few of these in particular Kentz (LON:KENZ) where I made many thousands.

Iomart (LON:IOM) where I made quite a bit when it was bid for before managing to sell before the bid fell through I think is one of those and been building a stake in it.

It's six months since the last bid for it and it would be little surprise to see another one come along - the last bid interest was around the 300p mark and I suspect the company could be bought for that. Or 270 will do! Hell, I'll take 250 !

So I have bought a few more IOM, and noted the price has been steadily rising since it hit around 170. Looks like others feel the same! Even if it isn't bid for it seems to be reasonably priced around 2 quid. I hope to hold now and be patient.

Talking of bids 888 (LON:888) was the subject of an approach by William Hill - I gratefully 

sold taking a profit of £1,686. Reason was the mooted bid was at 220 with rumours the family holding the main bulk of shares wanted 300 so it was unlikely to happen.

However once William Hill pulled out I bought 888 again on weakness as there is little doubt I think that 888 will end up bid for with any number of companies in the frame and I suspect one of them will go for it and would have thought a compromise price of 250 could be reached so I reckon the shares  are worth holding.

I think it likely 888 will have been taken out by someone by year end and now just a question of holding them for the rewards.

I bought a few more London Capital Group (LON:LCG) - the shares have been stuck in the 28-30 area for a while, I sense there is a share overhang (a lot of shares that need to be cleared) - once that happens there could be a nice 20-30% rise all of a sudden. New management is in there and I noticed a lot of action (for example helpful phone calls from them). Given they have tons of cash they are worth at least 30p where spreadex tried to buy them a while back.

 

I picked up the shares I'd asked for in new issue John Laing (LON:JLG) at the price of 195p which looks a reasonable price for a good growing company with a nice dividend and tempted to get a few more.

 

JLG looks like a nice long-term ISA tuckaway and a reasonable sleep at night type. It's currently available around the issue price.

I do like Sprue Aegis (LON:SPRP) the health and safety company and I bought some more this week even though I've made quite a bit on them already. Averaging up has worked a lot for me.

And Renew (LON:RNWH) has come back quite a bit from the 300 area to the 270 area and that was enough to tempt me into buying some more this very morning. A company with a great future - once it gets back to 300 any push above that and 320 looks a good target area. 

Caretech (LON:CTH) just wouldn't shift higher than 230 so I took a small loss of £276   selling at 220. Took a profit on Utw of £778 as it climbed nicely higher after a decent statement.  Since then it has come back a little and hoping to repeat the trick buying again in the low 200s if I can... finger on the buy button!

AROUND THE PORTFOLIO

Recent trade shoe zone's shares have been well heeled since buying moving nicely upwards. Dividend on the way too.

Al Noor (LON:ANH) has given me a nice 100 points but more to come I think

Pets at Home (LON:PETS) doing well and now up more than 30% on the initial buying, being a bit greedy and looking for 250. Those of you who came to the seminar saw the real giant spreadbets I have in it where I am up more than £13,000.

Carclo (LON:CAR) shares continue to motor. Amino too. 

Entertainment One is starting to rise again after its recent acquisition - well underpriced at the moment, and should soon go back over 300.

Dignity (LON:DTY) is really flying high for me trying to push up through the 1900 area, nice and now doubled on my first entry point. Today it seems to have pushed through quite decisively. There is money in death you know. 

Optimal Payments (LON:OPAY) is rising very nicely indeed and looks about to head back to the 400 area.

Servelec (LON:SERV) yesterday issued a statement that it was awarded a position on a new procurement framework and that sees the share price head back up to near the 300 level again.

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