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Very favourable conditions for stock pickers, not so good for day traders

Very favourable conditions for stock pickers, not so good for day traders



Tony Blair has installed a trading desk at his home! Apparently he wants to do something with the £20 million plus he has made. 

(A Labour Prime Minister, you couldn't have made this up)

He's employed some bankers to trade shares for him.

Well, good luck Tony - knowing bankers and traders watch for your £20 million to be worth £15 million in a year...

I wonder whether Tony will take any advice from his old mate Gordon Brown.

What's next: Gordon Brown launching his own Gold fund?

Yes!! You can now invest in the Brown Gold Fund. Brown is an expert at selling gold!

Brown's experience is second to none. Yes, in the late 90s Brown sold the UK's gold for the great price of £9.99  !

Conditions at the moment tend to be very favourable for stock pickers but not so good for day traders, index traders etc.

I was reading through some of the questionaires of those coming to my seminar on Friday and some lost big sums betting on the FTSE to go down. They bet on it to go down cos it went up a bit. 

Fair logic I guess but don't expect markets to be logical. You could argue markets should be 1,000 points lower given the mess we are in. But markets are a law to themselves - it isn't worth going against a trend - better to go with a trend even if you privately think that trend is crackers. 

I'm not complaining - I can't remember a better start to a year and 2012 was brilliant too.

However I am really not far off taking a few profits off the table.

There's been nothing shouting at me from the rooftops to buy this week so I haven't - got quite a few ideas on a shortlist which I'll discuss with some of the you at the seminar on Friday but none of them have given me enough of a buy signal to get stuck in.

However one or two shorts look interesting.

I've shorted Horseburgerco, whoops I mean Tescos (LON:TSCO) - I wasn't convinced by the recent statement and think it has run up too high so went short on a spreadbet at 357 .  Cue hate mail from Tescos fans... it is a short-term idea only and would expect to be out soon. Of course if you short Tescos shares, you get one free for every one you sell. I guess I'm looking for a fall to about 330. 

Ocado (LON:OCDO) looks a tempting short again so I was tempted at 86 after a so so trading statement. Looked pretty lacklustre to me and I can't see how this one could be valued much higher. Lots of trumpeting of more customer but what about profits? 

And I don't usually do the US, but it is too tempting not to short Facebook shares after its long awaited announcement proved a damp squib. In fact the announcement was even a bit sinister. UK Facebook accounts are being closed all the time, Mrs NT closed hers recently. They  have too much access to our private info - I think anyone putting up photos and stuff about themselves which can be targeted are crazy.

I've sold nearly all my AGA (LON:AGA) except for what I need to qualify for the shareholders' discount! For the website easier if it all goes, so it is sold at  83.1 for a profit of £2,550.

It's been a marvellous trade flagged up at the last seminar - I've sold because it's gone way past target and up over 40% and I think after such a ride it's going to pause here for a while and I can always get back on if it looks like another spurt up is on the way. 

I've taken part profits (topsliced)  on long-termer Avon Rubber (LON:AVON) at 410 - profit of £660 and £1,070 last two trades. Still looks a great company and indeed kind of hoping it'll go down a bit to pick those shares I sold back up again cheaper! 

Vitec (LON:VTC) keeps going down, no idea why but didn't want to fight the market so sold some at 630.6 to close the last 3 site trades for a profit of £352 however keeping the other two open trades. I would be looking to buy these very soon on much further weakness. And I sold the recent Volex (LON:VLX) trade because sellers kept on coming in the 106 area on level 2.  I sold at 106.3  for a profit of £765.

All that selling gives a total profit for the site of £5,397 

Well, things continue to look really good - however with such good gains one has to have an eye on taking some more profits soon!

Recent trades are all going well - recent top up Carclo (LON:CAR) is sitting under a fiver - might take a push to get it through but if it does, a bullish sign for the year ahead.  I think this one could rise very strongly this year. Its CIT technology looks a winner and the shares could easily have a massive run up from here given time and patience. Already doubled on it and sitting on massive profits but I feel the best is yet to come. 

St Ives (LON:SIV) has been going like a rocket - couldn't quite manage to go over 125 but went back down to 115 but hopefully it will try again.Vislink (LON:VLK)  is shooting up nicely and looking for it to go 37p ish. Management already forecasts some nice profit rises over the next 3 years and it looks cheap and at some point should get a rerating. Very low risk too and it is in a hot sector.

Nichols (LON:NICL) where I now sit on a fabulous profit is up again after telling the market it is ahead of expectations - it has tons of cash so I'd expect them to announce some kind of big dividend with results in March.

LOQ (LON:LOQ) keeps making great annoncements and has done it again! Now nearly four timed my money on this one  but I feel more to come!  Can it crack 400? Costain (LON:COST)seems in the middle of a deserved rerating at last and patience is paying off here, I wonder if it can get up to 300?

Greencore (LON:GNC) continues to soar, more than doubled here now and the recent top up in a massive profit now too.

Low and Bonar (LON:LWB) has been a bit slow, still the trade has nearly worked out and ten per cent could soon be bagged. 

Trifast (LON:TRI) has leapt nicely - I hope it will have another go at defeating the 50p mark. Trying hard today!

Cash Converters (LON:CCVU) has had a nice rise and I hope that will get to at least a quid. Up a bit today.

I'm hoping for a bid soon on Alternative Networks (LON:AN.) (they already turned one bidder down) and in the meantime there has been great capital growth and a massive dividend as they have loads of cash. It's now trying to crack the tricky 300p area.

The lovely Porvair (LON:PRV) has been motoring up very nicely over Xmas and in good profits there now. 

Telecom Plus (LON:TEP)continues to find  900 a tough area to crack though it has managed to close over that price once or twice now. still   think this one will just continue to grow and grow and one day could be in the ftse 100.  Website profits of well over £100,000 and personal profits of nearly £300,000.  I just continue a long-term holder. 

Vectura (LON:VEC) is on the rise again  a good drugs pipeline here and it has tons of cash - could be a future very big star and hoping to hold on longer term. 

Chime (LON:CHW) keeps on going up - a good 30 points higher quite quickly over Xmas and  still in this from 50p so a nice times four and a great profit on the ones bought more recently in the 140s and the spreadbet.

Dialight (LON:DIA) has been heading higher again after a spells around a tenner it has lifted up above 1100.I remember so well buying these at 150 ish at a seminar in 2009 ! I never thought I'd still have them three years later at over a tenner.  

Coastal (LON:CEO) continues to shine and now nearly trebled on this brilliant oil play. I suspect a bid will come in here this year at hopefully around the 1800 mark. 

Direct Line (LON:DLG) has proved a surprise nice winning trade and has sped over 200. I was thinking of taking profits at over 200 but it seems so strong staying with it for the mo. I laugh as I only bought because all the magazine tipsters said don't buy!

Sepura (LON:SEPU) continues to go for it and 100 surely must be cracked sooner or later.   

And at last Iomart (LON:IOM) is really motoring and it is up a lot today, hope it can keep it up!!


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Nakedtrader  was created after I left my full-time job as a finance editor for BskyB to trade full-time. I had been writing an diary page for its teletext service since 1998 and decided as I was leaving to transfer that to the internet.
These articles are simply a "diary" of my life, or what you would now call a "blog". I detail what I've bought, sold or shorted and briefly why. I use various spreadbetting companies and stockbrokers to carry out the trades. I ignore commission but also dividends and I reckon the two balance each other up.
So you should be aware this is not a "tipping" site and I do not consider myself, nor do I want to be, a "tipster". In other words tipsters will urge you to "buy" something - and they generally are regulated to do so by the FSA. I simply state I have already bought or sold something personally. Because of that I am not "regulated" - so I am not an authorised "tipster". I am simply a trader who states his positions.
That is quite a big difference. I am not allowed to give what is called "Individual investment advice". And quite right too - I am not trained to do so. What that also means is if you e-mail me and ask me anything along the lines of "Should I buy or sell this share?" I cannot answer you except to say it is your choice! Of course I am more than happy to answer anything to do with general market/educational questions.
You should understand I always have an interest, and sometimes a big interest, in any stock I talk about. For website purposes my buys will often be to smaller stakes than in reality. So although my buys are real enough, as are the prices, I can and often do buy much bigger stakes in the shares. I may also "top up" in shares without declaring it and I will  sometimes deal more often than I mention on the site - mainly because of time pressure, if markets are busy. So though the buys on the site are around the £5,000 mark I may well deal in reality is sizes of £10,000 - £30,000.
My reasoning for this is I simply do not want to encourage people to blindly follow me into something when they do not understand the potential risk. It's ok for me because I can afford to lose money I put into the market. It may not be the case for you.  I am generally a medium term investor holding my shares usually between 1 week and on occasions up to 3 years. Average holding time is probably about 3 months.
So one of my main messages is: don't be tempted to follow me blindly into my choices. Quite often, as I play momentum, a share I have bought may already be much higher than when I bought it, especially as I do not update every day. If you follow me blindly you may be buying at a much higher price and you may end up selling at a much lower one.
You should ALWAYS do your own research and come to your own decisions on share purchases. If you follow me into something and lose money, you only have yourself to blame and not me. You should learn about markets and understand what you are doing before entering them.
The most risky way of trading of all is spreadbetting, which I do quite a bit. You should carefully read all the warnings that the spread betting firms issue together with all the warnings in my books. And never, ever, play with money you cannot afford to lose.
The aim of this site is to entertain, and perhaps stimulate debate, and that is the condition of entry !I really hope you enjoy reading about my triumphs and mistakes, but please, just watch and enjoy my triumphs and learn from my mistakes. Consider this site as entertainment. If this is your first visit to the Nakedtrader website site, I thank you for visiting me, and hope you will find this site useful. 
After reading and agreeing to the disclaimer, click the "I accept" button below. Please remember, I cannot give any specific advice, as to whether you should buy, hold or sell any individual share.
"The investments and other products referred to on the Naked Trader website should in no way be considered "advice" to buy or sell anything.  Naked Trader information is given in general terms only and does not constitute personal advice to any individual.  Investors are responsible for formulating and applying their own strategies based on their own personal circumstances. Naked Trader recommends that you obtain independent financial advice from an FSA-authorised intermediary before investing money.  Information given in previous editions of Naked Trader daily updates may become outdated and should not be relied upon unless confirmed by recent comment

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