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BoJ inaction undoes Fed caution

Published: 08:20 28 Apr 2016 BST

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Mike van Dulken and Augustin Eden at Accendo Markets commented to clients this morning:
FTSE 100 called to open -35pts at 6285, back below the recent 6300 bugbear level after a sharp overnight sell-off (this time blame the BoJ) from 3-day highs 6340. This potentially puts us back within the confines of the sideways channel from earlier in the week, but in the context of the February uptrend could represent continued consolidation after the 17% rally. April uptrend still safe so long as 6250 support holds. Watch levels: Bullish 6305, Bearish 6245.

Negative opening calls are courtesy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) disappointing markets by refraining from any additional monetary policy easing which sent the Yen north and saw Nikkei equities plunge 3.5%. This despite fresh deflationary data and the central bank cutting its growth targets. The BoJ's overnight decision undid a positive response to the US Fed’s dovish update yesterday evening, with the US central bank's tempering of concerns regarding external risks being offset by mixed US data to keep us guessing about the timing of the next US rate hike.

Asian equities mixed with Japan’s Nikkei the clear underperformer. Despite weak Japanese inflation data, there was some good news via improvements in unemployment, retail sales and industrial production which may be helping regional sentiment hold up, even if Japan remains in trouble in terms of persistently absent growth and inflation.

Australia’s ASX positive despite AUD strength, with BoJ-inspired Yen strength dealing a welcome blow to the US dollar, to the benefit of the commodities space - metals and miners - as well as an oil price resilience around recent recovery highs. Chinese stocks still weighed by tech sector weakness even if social media giant Facebook managed to buck a weak sector results season trend by beating expectations.

No rate hike from the US Fed was either expected or delivered yesterday evening, although the hitherto standard commentary about ‘risks’ was absent, indicating a tentative upgrade to the Fed’s assessment of the global economic situation. This left markets pondering the possibility that June might still be on the table, although an unfortunate slowing in the US economy will have served to offset positivity elsewhere.

Not much in the way of an equity market reaction - a mixed close on Wall Street - while the USD saw some volatility and is, in fact, very much on the back foot this morning as the Dollar Basket (DX) falls through the floor of its Apr rising channel to test that uptrend.

US corporate results saw Facebook (FB)’s quarterly profits triple on advertising growth, while payments processor Paypal (PYPL) also reported strong Q1 earnings. These announcements came as a welcome reprieve from other silicon valley names that have been struggling of late (like Twitter).

Dollar weakness is helping commodities with Gold having broken out above $1250 overnight - with equity markets called a tad lower this morning and broad USD weakness continuing, it’s probable it’ll hold those gains as the day passes, but note momentum failing to match gold’s new highs on the hourly chart.

Crude oil prices are STILL supported yet uptrends are under threat from diverging technicals through April. Brent’s hourly RSI is heading towards rising lows that coincide with its zero line, such that a test and break below will be sought by bears as a sell opportunity. Oh, and do we hear more chat about rising US supply? Yes, we do. Note, however, traders are still flitting between bullishness on declining production and bearishness on growing inventories which is likely to make things choppy in the near term.

In focus today will be the fallout from the Fed and BoJ updates and the ramifications for global monetary policy outlook. Data-wise, listen out for German unemployment  (no change expected) as well as Eurozone Business Confidence readings (minor improvements forecast). German Inflation may however show a drop back to deflation in April, reminding us about Eurozone fragility, while US GDP is likely to have slowed markedly and a good reason for the Fed to hold off from a rate hike to avoid any worsening of the situation. US Results today from Amazon, Colgate, Dow Chemical, Ford, and global economic barometer UPS.

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