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New Asian dividend culture lures investors - Fullermoney
This is an informative article (may require subscription registration) by Steve Johnson for the Financial Times. Here is the opening:
Cash-rich Asian business have long been a byword for profligacy and waste. All too often stories have emerged of companies frittering away their surplus cash in ill-conceived non-core operations - corporate golf courses a regional speciality - or funnelling it into a headlong rush for market share and revenues, at the expense of profit.
Investors keen on actually receiving some of their money back in the form of dividends - long shown to be the key driver of long-term returns - largely chose to stick to developed markets.
But a growing band of intrepid equity income investors are now charting a course for Asia in the belief that these stereotypes no longer apply.
"Asia is a very good market for yield but is ignored by investors. There has been a different approach from many companies in terms of their acceptance that they should pay dividends," says Mark Williams, whose Liontrust Asia Income fund, with a target yield of 4.5 per cent, is due to launch next month.
Steve Thornber, whose Threadneedle Global Equity Income fund now has 25 per cent of its holdings in Asia, well ahead of the benchmark weighting of 10-12 per cent, adds: "The income culture has been growing. [A decade ago] I would not have had as much in Asia because there wouldn't have been so many income opportunities. In the last four or five years more and more companies have started rewarding shareholders with dividends. It has changed and it's still changing."
The figures give credence to these perceptions. According to data from Thomson Reuters, the payout from the Chinese equity market has jumped from 0.79 per cent to 3.15 per cent in the past five years, with dividend yields also rising in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and India, although the latter, along with South Korea, remains a laggard with yields of just 1.3-1.5 per cent.
The yield across Asia ex-Japan is now 3.16 per cent, according to FTSE Group, above the US, Japan and the global average of 2.7 per cent, although a little below that available in the UK and continental Europe.
My view - Asia's increasing dividends make the region much more of an investment proposition. Fifteen or more years ago Asian equities were regarded by many investors as little more than high-beta trading vehicles. Clearly that has changed.
This item continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Email of the day (1) - On dividends:
"I have been meaning to ask David a few questions about his dividends. He has made recent mention of using his accumulation of dividends in his long term portfolio for additional purchases. Does he ever reinvest dividends in any stock? What are his (and yours) thoughts about reinvesting dividends in general, specifically is it OK in one situation - like a mutual fund - but not OK in another, like a common stock? Is there a determination that it is better to reinvest in oversold markets as opposed to overbought markets? Thanks for your considered reply in advance."
My comment - I assume that you are referring to an automatic dividend reinvestment policy. I have not done this, to date, although it seems a good idea if you like the company as a long-term investment and favour cost averaging.
Email of the day (2) - On gold and silver:
"Having been on vacation for the last weeks with low internet quality, I was not able to listen to your audios, but at least I could read the page almost daily.
"I have to tell you that am surprised by your present lack of interest in PM. I remember your wise decision of stepping down from gold in the last part of December because of its high volatility at that time. But from January on gold rallied more than 10%, as well as silver, and you chose to stay on the sidelines. That seemed to me like watching Wilkinson losing a goal just in front of the posts!! Very unusual! Moreover, your recent comments about a new silver stocks analysis service, regarding it as a potential contrarian indicator made me think about what could be your present view on PM.
"As an investor in gold and silver I have always found your views and analysis very useful since they helped me to avoid painful losses and to make good profits.
"Is there anything that is disturbing your views about gold and/or gold stocks? Your comments are very appreciated David.
"Thank you for your help and your usual superb coaching."
My comment - I imagine your apparently remote holiday venue was a wise choice. I am also flattered by your Jonny Wilkinson analogy, and yes, after the accelerated decline that was an opportunity missed by me but hopefully not by you.
This item continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Deepak Lalwani's India Report - My thanks to the author for his informative report. It is posted in the Subscriber's Area but here is a brief section on the RBI:
With increasing risks to economic growth the Reserve Bank of India is under pressure to reduce interest rates. However, until last October it had to increase interest rates 13 times by a cumulative 375 basis points to 8.5% to tame stubbornly high inflation. Hence, it will want to be sure that inflation is under control before reducing rates. The inflation readings for January and February at least will be watched to see if prices are finally under control. If they are, we expect the RBI to start reducing interest rates from around March-April. About 100-125 babsis points cuts are expected this year, with 50 babsis points by June to spur economic growth.
My view - There are local contributing factors to India's inflationary problem, not least regarding poor distribution of food. Nevertheless, the global trend generally indicates some easing of inflationary pressures in growth economies, following monetary tightening and last year's moderate decline in GDP.
This item continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Additional commentary by Eoin Treacy
Secrets of the Yen (8): Yen rises with Japan or US QE Thanks to a subscriber for this interesting note by Taisuke Tanaka for Deutsche Bank. The full note is posted in the Subscriber's Area but here is a section:
When QE is implemented or expanded, we think the scale of the action is a measure not so much of the degree of monetary easing as of the extent of financial paralysis. The impact of monetary easing can be understood as the extent to which people make use of the ready availability of a large volume of low-cost money. QE has been implemented in abnormal conditions when balance sheet adjustments have stalled, policy rates have been lowered to zero, and money is not circulating. In this sense, we can interpret the US's QE2 of only $600bn, compared with the conjectured $1.5trn, as the result of the initial action coming fairly close to delivering the impact of monetary easing.
Let's return to Japan between 2001 and 2004. At the time, conditions in Japan were close to a liquidity trap in a deflationary environment, pressuring the BoJ to conduct QE. As Japan is a creditor nation, reduced risk tolerance and strengthened investors' home bias resulted in yen appreciation. No matter how much monetary easing the BoJ conducts, yen appreciation does not lead to growth in yen borrowing overseas. Japan's QE thus did not deliver a monetary easing impact, and the vicious cycle of yen appreciation and deflationary effects persisted.
In contrast, when conditions in the US left its authorities no option but to conduct QE, the dollar depreciated as the inflow of funds into this debtor nation stalled. As a key currency, the dollar is in wide use globally. Even if financial paralysis continues in the US, high-growth nations such as emerging economies move to make increasing use of readily available dollar funds. This sentiment favoring a weaker dollar is reinforced by carry trades. If QE in the US leads to dollar depreciation, monetary conditions in the nation will ease even after interest rates are lowered as far as possible, and a reflex impact overseas benefits US exports as well. The US authorities appear to want to break free of balance sheet adjustments in 3-5 years, compared with the more than 15 years taken in Japan.
My view Today's announcement of an asset purchase plan and 1% inflation target by the Bank of Japan would appear to be a case of peer pressure. Under Ben Bernanke, the Fed has adopted a similar measure and the ECB was founded on a price stability mandate. Against a background of slowing growth, a strong currency and exodus by manufacturers, the BoJ has little choice but to follow other large economies in quantitative easing. This article from Bloomberg carries some additional information.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Buying Infrastructure Builders Thanks to a subscriber for this informative report by Curt Luaner and Valerie Zhang for Deutsche Bank focusing on the MLP sector. Here is a section:
Macro Plusses in Supply; Demand; Price: Extra Boost From Oil & Liquids:
Specific conclusions detailed in this report: US natural gas demand growth of 1.8%% per year (Figure 16); a rise of 4.4% per year in power generation; North American natural gas supply growth of 2% per year (Figure 13); 11% growth in shale production; oil production growth in North America of 5.6%.(Figure 14).
Fundamentals Promote Extension of Recent Valuation Gains:
With MLP's having shown a 13% total return in 2011 vs a 2% rise in the S&P 500 (including dividends), the favorable attributes of the sector are not undiscovered. However, the hard assets base and the essential infrastructure nature of the growth make for a unique secular growth story. The current yield premium of 391 basis points vs the 10 year Treasury compares to 300 bps historically. In the environment of 2006-2007, the yield differential fell to 130 bps before rising to over 500 bps in the crisis of 2008. The average for 2010-2011 was 365 bps.
Risks: Commodity Prices, Capital Markets, Regulation and Legislation:
The risks to our thesis are: commodity prices, because of the reliance on producers to continue drilling and producing oil and gas; capital markets, because of the need for both equity and debt capital to fund the capital expenditures of the industry; regulatory or legislative actions that could slow drilling in the shale plays or change the favorable and attractive tax structure of the sector.
My view There have been two primary drivers behind investor interest in energy MLPs over the last few years. The first is the favourable tax treatment they receive as pass through entities which contributes to the sector's higher than average yields. The second is they offer one of the best plays on the secular bull market in domestic US energy expansion and development. Shale gas is putting downward pressure on commodity prices. Companies dependent on a high natural gas price are struggling as a result. However, increased volumes have been a boon for pipeline and gas storage companies.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Email of the day (1) on my equity short:
Just commenting on the XXX short. Would it not be better to sell puts 10 20% out of the money. After all, collecting premiums is what the insurance companies have been doing for decades? I hope it works out.
My comment Thank you for this email which raises some interesting points. Selling puts would be a legitimate way to express a short-term negative view on a share, particularly one that has been racing away from its trend mean and where the likelihood of a reversion is increasing.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Email of the day (2) on introducing a moving average to a relative chart:
Regarding today's [Ed. Yesterday's] email request on creating a relative chart template, is it possible to superimpose moving averages on the relative chart?
I have tried the method that works with 'absolute' charts but can't get it to work with 'relatives'; please advise what I am doing wrong? Many thanks.
My comment Thank you for this question which may be of interest to other subscribers. At present it is not possible to introduce a moving average to a relative chart. This is something we will look into providing at some point.
Email of the day (3) on the order of templates in the Chart dropdown menu:
Thank you for yesterday's explanation on how to create a relative chart template. Once they are created, is there a way of changing their order in the Chart dropdown menu?
My comment Thank you for this question which may be of interest to other subscribers. The five default charts (P&F, Candlestick - 1yr daily, Candlestick - 5yr weekly, Candlestick - 10yr, Candlestick - 20yr) are all static and cannot be moved. The personalised templates you create using the Charting tool are order in alphabetical order so you can sort them by putting an appropriate letter at the beginning of the title. For example, start the title of the template you wish at the top of the list with an "a)", the second with a "b)" and so on.
Email of the day (4) on shipping shares versus shipping rates:
The dry bulk shipping sector (Dry ships etc.) seems to be on the move even though the Baltic Dry index is not moving much. Do you or anyone in the collective have an insight on the fundamentals of this sector?
My comment Thank you for this question which others may have an interest in. Two pieces on the shipping and freight sectors posted in Comment of the Day on January 27th and January 30th.
Email of the day (5-7) on additions to the Chart Library:
Many thanks for the on-going excellent service. Could you please add a NASDAQ oil and gas exploration stock Halcon Resources (HK) to the chart library? Many thanks.
And
Would you please add Groupon (GRPN) add to the Chart Library? Thank you.
And
Please can you add Michael Kors Holdings (ticker KORS) to the chart library.
My comment Thank you for these suggestions which have been added to the Chart Library.
Speaking engagements in the USA - I have accepted invitations to speak to a number of associations and groups while in the USA for The Chart Seminar. My schedule is still filling but here are the details so far:
San Diego MTA chapter in the first week of April. Time and venue yet to be arranged.
Los Angeles MTA chapter on April 11th venue to be arranged but will be in the Long Beach area.
To Hoard or to Horde: risks and opportunities from participating with the crowd. Will be the topic of my talk to both these associations.
CFA Institute San Francisco April 12th 3pm. The venue has yet to be finalised but the topic will be Differing patterns of development, comparing the USA & UK with China & India.
The TSAA-San Francisco April 13th. Venue and time have yet to be confirmed by the topic will be Investment implication of competing inflationary and deflationary forces.
If you would like me to speak to your local chapter or organisation in California or New York please contact your respective chairperson and ask them to contact me.
The Chart Seminar 2012 - Following a sell-out tour to Singapore and Australia last year, The Chart Seminar will be held in San Francisco, New York and London this year. Please be aware that the early booking rate for non- subscribers at the US seminars expires on January 31st.
We are currently taking bookings for our San Francisco and New York dates in April as well as London seminars in May and November. Anyone interested in securing a place at any of our events should contact Sarah Barnes at sbarnes@fullermoney.com.
The date and venues for my seminars so far in 2012 are:
San Francisco - April 16th &17th 2012 Nikko Hotel
New York - April 23rd & 24th 2012 at The Manhattan Club (above Rosie O'Grady's) at 800 7th Avenue
London - May 25th & 25th 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire
London - November 22nd & 23rd 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire
The full rate is £950 + VAT. (Please note US delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). The early booking rate of £875 for non-subscribers expires on January 30th for the US seminars. Paid-up Fullermoney subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.


























