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Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds - Fullermoney
My thanks to Jackson Wong of Investors Intelligence for pointing out this excellent, educative article, published by Fortune. Here is a controversial section:
The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer's hope that someone else -- who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive -- will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century.
This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further. Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce -- it will remain lifeless forever -- but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future.
The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.
What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As "bandwagon" investors join any party, they create their own truth -- for a while.
Over the past 15 years, both Internet stocks and houses have demonstrated the extraordinary excesses that can be created by combining an initially sensible thesis with well-publicized rising prices. In these bubbles, an army of originally skeptical investors succumbed to the "proof " delivered by the market, and the pool of buyers -- for a time -- expanded sufficiently to keep the bandwagon rolling. But bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop. And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: "What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end."
Today the world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce -- gold's price as I write this -- its value would be about $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
Let's now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world's most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today's annual production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers -- whether jewelry and industrial users, frightened individuals, or speculators -- must continually absorb this additional supply to merely maintain an equilibrium at present prices.
A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops -- and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil (XOM) will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.
Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it's likely many will still rush to gold. I'm confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.
Our first two categories enjoy maximum popularity at peaks of fear: Terror over economic collapse drives individuals to currency-based assets, most particularly U.S. obligations, and fear of currency collapse fosters movement to sterile assets such as gold. We heard "cash is king" in late 2008, just when cash should have been deployed rather than held. Similarly, we heard "cash is trash" in the early 1980s just when fixed-dollar investments were at their most attractive level in memory. On those occasions, investors who required a supportive crowd paid dearly for that comfort.
My view - We can expect gold bugs to attack this view over the next few months, and not without some justification.
For instance, while that hypothetical "cube of gold" will still be around a century from now, albeit held by many investors and central banks around the world, can we be certain that Exxon Mobil will continue to flourish and that America's farmland will remain equally productive?
I certainly hope so but there are no guarantees.
This item continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Email of the day (1) - On money printing:
Hi David and Eoin and hoping all is well with you. Re Tim Price, "artificial" interest rates and "stop the (printing) press". The problem I have with this way of seeing the world is the implicit assumption that the very low real and nominal interest rates we have been experiencing have in fact been "artificial" rather than a reflection of the actual levels that central banks genuinely see as appropriate to strike a balance between demand and potential supply in the economy and to thereby avert unnecessarily high unemployment and deflationary risk. If the zero-based interest rates (and QE) that we have been seeing for some years now have been artificially and inappropriately low, we will soon be seeing a broad based inflationary shock (i.e. not just commodity inflation but labour market inflationary pressures as well). In fact, we would most likely be seeing it already. However, the weight of evidence suggests that after some years of super-loose monetary policy, we are still not on the cusp of any such inflationary shock and that monetary policy has in fact been appropriately anti-deflationary rather than "artificial" and inflationary. Of course, the appropriate level of interest rates and QE will naturally change as the economy improves and as unemployment falls. As long as central banks move with this, things will be as they should and we will see neither deflationary nor inflationary shocks. The attached report might be of interest in this regard.
My view - Thanks for your very good points in an email of general interest, and for the report which I have posted in the Subscriber's Area. You make a reasoned defence of Keynesian economics and will be aware that some commentators on both sides of the Atlantic are proclaiming success for these policies.
I take a more cautious view, not least due to time lags and because we have not seen a similar monetary experiment on this scale.
This item continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Clive Hale: Moral hazard and the law of bizarre consequences - My thanks to the author for his latest note. It is posted in the Subscriber's Area but here is a brief sample:
In the good old days of accrual accounting balance sheets were signed off as showing "true and fair value" and there was an actual number for contingent liabilities. Today "mark to market" has become "mark to unicorn"… Back in a somewhat more realistic world, if a company (even, heaven forbid, a bank!) was insolvent it went bust thereby giving a salutary reminder to investors, depositors and creditors of the maxim of caveat emptor. By creeping paralysis that principal too has been abandoned by governments and regulators who believe they are better equipped to save us from our own mistakes. The consequence (unintended or otherwise) of which is to compound the error.
My view - I commend the rest of Clive Hale's latest note to you. It is one of his best, in my opinion.
Greece Delivers Austerity Accord to Win Approval for Bailout - Here is the opening from Bloomberg's report on this development:
Greek political leaders announced agreement on austerity measures, clearing the way for a deal to cut the nation's debt and win its second rescue in two years.
"Discussions between the Greek government and the troika were successfully completed this morning," Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos's office said in an e-mailed statement today in Athens. "Political leaders have agreed with the result of those negotiations. Therefore there is a general agreement in the context of the new program ahead of tonight's euro group meeting." The statement didn't include any details.
The accord came after Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos arrived in Brussels for an emergency meeting of euro- region finance ministers to discuss the 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) lifeline and a debt swap that will impose a loss of about 70 percent for investors.
"Some key pieces are falling into place," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London, said in an e-mailed note before the decision was announced. "Barring any last minute hitch, Europe may soon have defused the Greek issue for a while."
Greece faces a 14.5 billion-euro bond payment on March 20 and is struggling to secure financing to avert a collapse of the economy that could spark a new round of euro-area contagion.
My view - Hopes for an orderly containment of the Greek debt crisis steadied markets today.
My personal portfolio: A trade opened in one of my investment positions - Details and charts are in the Subscriber's Area.
Additional commentary by Eoin Treacy
Japan: land of the rising sun or of false dawns? Japan has dropped off the map in terms of investor interest. Political paralysis, a currency that has been too strong for too long, the ensuing trend of manufacturing outsourcing, last year's tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear disaster have all sapped investor interest. Against this background there has been no shortage of Asian markets that have outperformed spectacularly on a relative as well as absolute basis. The Topix Index by contrast has stubbornly failed to break out of its three-year base and recently retested its 2008 and 2003 lows.
The strength of the Yen has been a considerable headwind for the economy. An ever increasing number of Japan's largest companies are moving manufacturing offshore in an effort to combat the strength of the currency. With a massive overhang of government debt, the BoJ has been reticent to do anything that might alarm bond markets. It has so far demurred from following the Fed, BoE and ECB in aggressive quantitative easing. While Japan's overseas investments continue to pad the current account surplus, 2011 was the first time Japan posted a trade deficit in 48 years. This was rationalised by the loss of industrial production from the tsunami and the need to import more fuel. This article from Bloomberg carries some additional commentary on the trade surplus and may be of interest. Here is a section:
Japan's public borrowings will climb 10 percent in the year starting April to a record 1,086 trillion yen as the government pays for rebuilding after the quake, the finance ministry said last month. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda plans to double the nation's sales tax to 10 percent by the middle of the decade, an increase his government said won't be enough to balance the budget by 2020.
Standard & Poor's has had Japan's debt rating on a negative outlook since April after lowering it to AA- in January 2011. It said in November that Noda's administration hasn't made progress in tackling the public debt burden.
It's hard to tell when the market may cause a fiscal collapse -- it could be three years from now, or five years, or ten years, or tomorrow, said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. in Tokyo. It's like trying to predict an earthquake, though the magnitude may be bigger the further in the future it strikes.
This extensive section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
NRC Approves Southern Co.'s Nuclear-Plant Construction Permit This article by Brian Wingfield for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full:
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved Southern Co.'s plan for the first license to build reactors in more than 30 years, with Chairman Gregory Jaczko dissenting because he said there hasn't been a commitment to implement safety upgrades at the new plant after Japan's nuclear disaster last year.
Jaczko said he couldn't support the approval as if Fukushima had never happened, following the commission's 4-1 vote at NRC headquarters in Rockville, Maryland.
My view Despite the hysteria that followed the Fukushima accident, the nuclear industry has much to recommend it, not least that it provides abundant reliable energy at an acceptable price. This is in spite of the problems with long-term storage of nuclear waste.
This extensive section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Speaking engagements in the USA - I have accepted invitations to speak to a number of associations and groups while in the USA for The Chart Seminar. My schedule is still filling but here are the details so far:
San Diego MTA chapter in the first week of April. Time and venue yet to be arranged.
Los Angeles MTA chapter on April 11th venue to be arranged but will be in the Long Beach area.
To Hoard or to Horde: risks and opportunities from participating with the crowd. Will be the topic of my talk to both these associations.
CFA Institute San Francisco April 12th 3pm. Venue and the topic have yet to be finalised.
The TSAA-San Francisco April 13th. Venue and time have yet to be confirmed by the topic will be Investment implication of competing inflationary and deflationary forces.
If you would like me to speak to your local chapter or organisation in California or New York please contact your respective chairperson and ask them to contact me.
The Chart Seminar 2012 - Following a sell-out tour to Singapore and Australia last year, The Chart Seminar will be held in San Francisco, New York and London this year. Please be aware that the early booking rate for non- subscribers at the US seminars expires on January 31st.
We are currently taking bookings for our San Francisco and New York dates in April as well as London seminars in May and November. Anyone interested in securing a place at any of our events should contact Sarah Barnes at sbarnes@fullermoney.com.
The date and venues for my seminars so far in 2012 are:
San Francisco - April 16th &17th 2012 Nikko Hotel
New York - April 23rd & 24th 2012 at The Manhattan Club (above Rosie O'Grady's) at 800 7th Avenue
London - May 25th & 25th 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire
London - November 22nd & 23rd 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire
The full rate is £950 + VAT. (Please note US delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). The early booking rate of £875 for non-subscribers expires on January 30th for the US seminars. Paid-up Fullermoney subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.My thanks to Jackson Wong of Investors Intelligence for pointing out this excellent, educative article, published by Fortune. Here is a controversial section:
The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer's hope that someone else -- who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive -- will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century.
This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further. Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce -- it will remain lifeless forever -- but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future.
The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.
What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As "bandwagon" investors join any party, they create their own truth -- for a while.
Over the past 15 years, both Internet stocks and houses have demonstrated the extraordinary excesses that can be created by combining an initially sensible thesis with well-publicized rising prices. In these bubbles, an army of originally skeptical investors succumbed to the "proof " delivered by the market, and the pool of buyers -- for a time -- expanded sufficiently to keep the bandwagon rolling. But bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop. And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: "What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end."
Today the world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce -- gold's price as I write this -- its value would be about $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
Let's now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world's most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today's annual production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers -- whether jewelry and industrial users, frightened individuals, or speculators -- must continually absorb this additional supply to merely maintain an equilibrium at present prices.
A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops -- and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil (XOM) will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.
Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it's likely many will still rush to gold. I'm confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.
Our first two categories enjoy maximum popularity at peaks of fear: Terror over economic collapse drives individuals to currency-based assets, most particularly U.S. obligations, and fear of currency collapse fosters movement to sterile assets such as gold. We heard "cash is king" in late 2008, just when cash should have been deployed rather than held. Similarly, we heard "cash is trash" in the early 1980s just when fixed-dollar investments were at their most attractive level in memory. On those occasions, investors who required a supportive crowd paid dearly for that comfort.
My view - We can expect gold bugs to attack this view over the next few months, and not without some justification.
For instance, while that hypothetical "cube of gold" will still be around a century from now, albeit held by many investors and central banks around the world, can we be certain that Exxon Mobil will continue to flourish and that America's farmland will remain equally productive?
I certainly hope so but there are no guarantees.
This item continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Email of the day (1) - On money printing:
Hi David and Eoin and hoping all is well with you. Re Tim Price, "artificial" interest rates and "stop the (printing) press". The problem I have with this way of seeing the world is the implicit assumption that the very low real and nominal interest rates we have been experiencing have in fact been "artificial" rather than a reflection of the actual levels that central banks genuinely see as appropriate to strike a balance between demand and potential supply in the economy and to thereby avert unnecessarily high unemployment and deflationary risk. If the zero-based interest rates (and QE) that we have been seeing for some years now have been artificially and inappropriately low, we will soon be seeing a broad based inflationary shock (i.e. not just commodity inflation but labour market inflationary pressures as well). In fact, we would most likely be seeing it already. However, the weight of evidence suggests that after some years of super-loose monetary policy, we are still not on the cusp of any such inflationary shock and that monetary policy has in fact been appropriately anti-deflationary rather than "artificial" and inflationary. Of course, the appropriate level of interest rates and QE will naturally change as the economy improves and as unemployment falls. As long as central banks move with this, things will be as they should and we will see neither deflationary nor inflationary shocks. The attached report might be of interest in this regard.
My view - Thanks for your very good points in an email of general interest, and for the report which I have posted in the Subscriber's Area. You make a reasoned defence of Keynesian economics and will be aware that some commentators on both sides of the Atlantic are proclaiming success for these policies.
I take a more cautious view, not least due to time lags and because we have not seen a similar monetary experiment on this scale.
This item continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Clive Hale: Moral hazard and the law of bizarre consequences - My thanks to the author for his latest note. It is posted in the Subscriber's Area but here is a brief sample:
In the good old days of accrual accounting balance sheets were signed off as showing "true and fair value" and there was an actual number for contingent liabilities. Today "mark to market" has become "mark to unicorn"… Back in a somewhat more realistic world, if a company (even, heaven forbid, a bank!) was insolvent it went bust thereby giving a salutary reminder to investors, depositors and creditors of the maxim of caveat emptor. By creeping paralysis that principal too has been abandoned by governments and regulators who believe they are better equipped to save us from our own mistakes. The consequence (unintended or otherwise) of which is to compound the error.
My view - I commend the rest of Clive Hale's latest note to you. It is one of his best, in my opinion.
Greece Delivers Austerity Accord to Win Approval for Bailout - Here is the opening from Bloomberg's report on this development:
Greek political leaders announced agreement on austerity measures, clearing the way for a deal to cut the nation's debt and win its second rescue in two years.
"Discussions between the Greek government and the troika were successfully completed this morning," Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos's office said in an e-mailed statement today in Athens. "Political leaders have agreed with the result of those negotiations. Therefore there is a general agreement in the context of the new program ahead of tonight's euro group meeting." The statement didn't include any details.
The accord came after Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos arrived in Brussels for an emergency meeting of euro- region finance ministers to discuss the 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) lifeline and a debt swap that will impose a loss of about 70 percent for investors.
"Some key pieces are falling into place," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London, said in an e-mailed note before the decision was announced. "Barring any last minute hitch, Europe may soon have defused the Greek issue for a while."
Greece faces a 14.5 billion-euro bond payment on March 20 and is struggling to secure financing to avert a collapse of the economy that could spark a new round of euro-area contagion.
My view - Hopes for an orderly containment of the Greek debt crisis steadied markets today.
My personal portfolio: A trade opened in one of my investment positions - Details and charts are in the Subscriber's Area.
Additional commentary by Eoin Treacy
Japan: land of the rising sun or of false dawns? Japan has dropped off the map in terms of investor interest. Political paralysis, a currency that has been too strong for too long, the ensuing trend of manufacturing outsourcing, last year's tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear disaster have all sapped investor interest. Against this background there has been no shortage of Asian markets that have outperformed spectacularly on a relative as well as absolute basis. The Topix Index by contrast has stubbornly failed to break out of its three-year base and recently retested its 2008 and 2003 lows.
The strength of the Yen has been a considerable headwind for the economy. An ever increasing number of Japan's largest companies are moving manufacturing offshore in an effort to combat the strength of the currency. With a massive overhang of government debt, the BoJ has been reticent to do anything that might alarm bond markets. It has so far demurred from following the Fed, BoE and ECB in aggressive quantitative easing. While Japan's overseas investments continue to pad the current account surplus, 2011 was the first time Japan posted a trade deficit in 48 years. This was rationalised by the loss of industrial production from the tsunami and the need to import more fuel. This article from Bloomberg carries some additional commentary on the trade surplus and may be of interest. Here is a section:
Japan's public borrowings will climb 10 percent in the year starting April to a record 1,086 trillion yen as the government pays for rebuilding after the quake, the finance ministry said last month. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda plans to double the nation's sales tax to 10 percent by the middle of the decade, an increase his government said won't be enough to balance the budget by 2020.
Standard & Poor's has had Japan's debt rating on a negative outlook since April after lowering it to AA- in January 2011. It said in November that Noda's administration hasn't made progress in tackling the public debt burden.
It's hard to tell when the market may cause a fiscal collapse -- it could be three years from now, or five years, or ten years, or tomorrow, said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. in Tokyo. It's like trying to predict an earthquake, though the magnitude may be bigger the further in the future it strikes.
This extensive section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
NRC Approves Southern Co.'s Nuclear-Plant Construction Permit This article by Brian Wingfield for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full:
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved Southern Co.'s plan for the first license to build reactors in more than 30 years, with Chairman Gregory Jaczko dissenting because he said there hasn't been a commitment to implement safety upgrades at the new plant after Japan's nuclear disaster last year.
Jaczko said he couldn't support the approval as if Fukushima had never happened, following the commission's 4-1 vote at NRC headquarters in Rockville, Maryland.
My view Despite the hysteria that followed the Fukushima accident, the nuclear industry has much to recommend it, not least that it provides abundant reliable energy at an acceptable price. This is in spite of the problems with long-term storage of nuclear waste.
This extensive section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Speaking engagements in the USA - I have accepted invitations to speak to a number of associations and groups while in the USA for The Chart Seminar. My schedule is still filling but here are the details so far:
San Diego MTA chapter in the first week of April. Time and venue yet to be arranged.
Los Angeles MTA chapter on April 11th venue to be arranged but will be in the Long Beach area.
To Hoard or to Horde: risks and opportunities from participating with the crowd. Will be the topic of my talk to both these associations.
CFA Institute San Francisco April 12th 3pm. Venue and the topic have yet to be finalised.
The TSAA-San Francisco April 13th. Venue and time have yet to be confirmed by the topic will be Investment implication of competing inflationary and deflationary forces.
If you would like me to speak to your local chapter or organisation in California or New York please contact your respective chairperson and ask them to contact me.
The Chart Seminar 2012 - Following a sell-out tour to Singapore and Australia last year, The Chart Seminar will be held in San Francisco, New York and London this year. Please be aware that the early booking rate for non- subscribers at the US seminars expires on January 31st.
We are currently taking bookings for our San Francisco and New York dates in April as well as London seminars in May and November. Anyone interested in securing a place at any of our events should contact Sarah Barnes at sbarnes@fullermoney.com.
The date and venues for my seminars so far in 2012 are:
San Francisco - April 16th &17th 2012 Nikko Hotel
New York - April 23rd & 24th 2012 at The Manhattan Club (above Rosie O'Grady's) at 800 7th Avenue
London - May 25th & 25th 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire
London - November 22nd & 23rd 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire
The full rate is £950 + VAT. (Please note US delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). The early booking rate of £875 for non-subscribers expires on January 30th for the US seminars. Paid-up Fullermoney subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.
