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Here is the Washington Post's conclusion following Mitt Romney's victory in yesterday's key Florida primary:

But, make no mistake: Romney's victory tonight is total. Gingrich led the Florida primary in the days following South Carolina's vote but watched that lead ebb away amid middling debate performances, an avalanche of negative ads and his own self-inflicted wounds (permanent moon colonies, anyone?)

Romney's Florida victory re-establishes him as the clear favorite for the Republican nomination. It also puts the onus on Gingrich, Santorum and Paul to find a convincing argument as to why - and how - they can beat him.

My view - It may no longer resemble the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln, Dwight Eisenhower or even Richard Nixon but at least the GOP seems to have stepped back from its suicide mission.

Now that the autumnal nuts have been gathered in,
the real presidential race can begin.

It certainly wasn't pretty, but Mitt Romney, who I assume will now win the nomination, looks to me like the most capable candidate that the Republicans have had for quite a while.

Four years ago the Democrat Party had two very strong candidates in Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Today, the US President is vulnerable despite the advantages of office. If Romney, once nominated, runs as the moderate that he really is, it should be an absorbing and close contest.

Emails of the day (1) - On rhino horn imports:

"Your first piece today on the present value of Chinese caterpillar fungus struck a particular chord with me living here in South Africa. Such has been the demand by oriental nations for Rhino horn that its price has risen from $1700 per kilo in 1999 to $70,000 per kilo now! Poaching here in South Africa has risen 1,600% in 10 years. Of course, due in the Far East to a huge increase in population with money and here on the supply side a raft of wishy washy laws easily circumvented aided and abbetted by corrupt politicians and officials. Some of these poaching forays have involved helicopters and veterinarians. I am a retired vet from the UK with 40 years experience and it makes me sick to think that some of my colleagues have sold their souls to the devil.

"Extrapolating foreward there will be no more of these awesome animals left in 30 years on this continent in the wild thus depriving our grandchildren of such a treasure of experience."

My comment - Well said, and I could not agree more. This practice, along with the killing of other endangered species to the point of extinction reflects very badly on mankind, and shows a callous disregard for life. I can accept it from a historic, cultural perspective, but not today as it is now much more about greed than need, real or imagined. Civilized people should ban these practices, initially by outlawing them, backed by effective enforcement, and then by education. Hopefully, more governments will follow this example.

Martin Spring's On Target: Debt Crisis Explosion: Still a Long Way Off - My thanks to the author for his fascinating and informative letter. It is posted in the Subscriber's Area but here is a brief sample:

The crisis could still be a long way off. Martin Barnes of Canada's highly-respected BCA consultancy, which originally developed the concept of a debt supercycle, says we're nowhere near the end of it yet.

We're not yet experiencing the global develeraging that produces another great depression, as the bubble of total debt continues to inflate, with government debt rising much faster than private-sector debt is falling.

Currently "governments can print money and borrow like crazy without provoking inflation because of slack in productive capacity created by the recession."

We have the absurd current situation, where investors are prepared to pay governments to look after their money - negative interest rates in some cases, with negative real (inflation-adjusted) rates commonplace.

But that cannot last. At some stage, "you run out of suckers to buy government debt," as Mauldin puts it.

Lots of nasty things are likely to happen, sooner or later:

My view - And thus it always was. Historically, investors have often faced as many risks as opportunities. The key to successful navigation in this environment is to identify and follow the money flows. This requires common sense, analytical curiosity, an understanding of crowd behaviour, and a willingness to observe price charts in the manner of a naturalist.

I commend Martin Spring's letter to subscribers. He reads everything and has both the experience and analytical ability to 'separate the wheat from the chaff'.

Lynas update -

This item is in the Subscriber's Area.

Email of the day (2) - More on a book recommendation:

This item is in the Subscriber's Area.

Additional commentary by Eoin Treacy

Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union The final text of EU's fiscal compact holds few surprises. It is notable as much for what it includes as what it ignores. Here is a section:

a) The budgetary position of the general government shall be balanced or in surplus.

b) The rule under point a) shall be deemed to be respected if the annual structural balance of the general government is at its country-specific medium-term objective as defined in the revised Stability and Growth Pact with a lower limit of a structural deficit of 0.5 % of the gross domestic product at market prices. The Contracting Parties shall ensure rapid convergence towards their respective medium-term objective. The time frame for such convergence will be proposed by the Commission taking into consideration country-specific sustainability risks. Progress towards and respect of the medium-term objective shall be evaluated on the basis of an overall assessment with the structural balance as a reference, including an analysis of expenditure net of discretionary revenue measures, in line with the provisions of the revised Stability and Growth Pact.

c) The Contracting Parties may temporarily deviate from their medium-term objective or the adjustment path towards it only in exceptional circumstances as defined in paragraph

d) Where the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product at market prices is significantly below 60 % and where risks in terms of long-term sustainability of public finances are low, the lower limit of the medium-term objective specified under point b) can reach a structural deficit of at most 1.0 % of the gross domestic product at market prices.

e) In the event of significant observed deviations from the medium-term objective or the adjustment path towards it, a correction mechanism shall be triggered automatically. The mechanism shall include the obligation of the Contracting Party concerned to implement measures to correct the deviations over a defined period of time.

My view This treaty might reasonably be described as the Stability and Growth Pact for slow learners. It is only reasonable that if a number of countries share a common currency that they should adopt relatively similar fiscal policies.

Balanced budgets are a significant challenge, particularly for those accustomed to deficit spending. Significant adjustment will be required for the foreseeable future, as well as a commitment to maintain discipline once deficits have been eliminated. As any dieter will testify, keeping the weight off, once lost, is often much more difficult than losing it in the first place.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.

China's Manufacturing Holds Up Against Global Slowdown This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Chinese manufacturing indexes rose in January as the world's second-biggest economy withstood weaker exports driven by Europe's debt crisis and a government-induced property slowdown.

The official purchasing managers' index increased to 50.5 from 50.3 in December, exceeding the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey for a reading below the 50 level that divides expansion from contraction. The data may have been distorted by a weeklong holiday. A separate gauge from HSBC Holdings Plc. and Markit Economics rose to 48.8. India's manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in eight months.

Premier Wen Jiabao yesterday reiterated his government will fine-tune economic policies as needed after the central bank held off on a reduction in bank-reserve requirements that some analysts had forecast for January. Indexes for export orders, imports and employment in the official PMI showed a deeper decline, underscoring an International Monetary Fund warning last week that the euro area's crisis could trigger another global recession.

Today's data further confirmed a soft-landing story for China, said Ken Peng, a Beijing-based economist at BNP Paribas SA. However, consumer demand may weaken after holiday effects disappear, and global uncertainties and the Chinese government's efforts to curb property prices will continue to weigh on exports and industrial production, Peng said.

That will result in a bigger slowdown in China's growth in the coming months, he said.

My view China is walking a fine line between curtailing speculation in the property market and weighing too heavily on the manufacturing sector. Today's additional announcement of support for small to medium sized businesses is to be welcomed and suggests that fine tuning of economic policy is already underway. Lower bank reserve requirements and interest rates can also be expected.

Investors globally appear to be positioning themselves to avail of further monetary easing not least in Asia. The performance of industrial commodities and Latin American national indices highlight this contention. The Eurozone debt crisis continues to weigh on sentiment and global growth expectations, Asian countries are moving to insulate their economies by announcing infrastructure development projects and cutting interest rates. This has been welcomed in the industrial metal markets.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Today's Interesting charts The Chart Library's View All function allows you to scan through a large number of charts quickly and effectively.

Platinum has rallied impressively for four consecutive weeks and unwound the oversold condition relative to the 200-day MA. It is now short-term overbought as it challenges the lower side of the overhead trading range. A sustained move below $1500 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Speaking engagements in the USA - I have accepted an invitation to speak to the Los Angeles chapter of the MTA on April 11th. The venue has yet to be confirmed but will be in the Long Beach area. Non-members are welcome to attend. The topic will be "To Hoard or to Horde: risks and opportunities from participating with the crowd."

I have also accepted an invitation to speak to the San Diego chapter of the MTA in the first week of April. A date and time has yet to be fixed but it will take place in the Del Mar area.

I still have some space available on my itinerary. If you would like me to speak to your local chapter or organisation in California or New York please contact your respective chairperson and ask them to contact me.

The Chart Seminar 2012 - Following a sell-out tour to Singapore and Australia last year, The Chart Seminar will be held in San Francisco, New York and London this year. Please be aware that the early booking rate for non- subscribers at the US seminars expires on January 31st.

We are currently taking bookings for our San Francisco and New York dates in April as well as London seminars in May and November. Anyone interested in securing a place at any of our events should contact Sarah Barnes at sbarnes@fullermoney.com.

The date and venues for my seminars so far in 2012 are:

San Francisco - April 16th &17th 2012 Nikko Hotel

New York - April 23rd & 24th 2012 at The Manhattan Club (above Rosie O'Grady's) at 800 7th Avenue

London - May 25th & 25th 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire

London - November 22nd & 23rd 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire

The full rate is £950 + VAT. (Please note US delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). The early booking rate of £875 for non-subscribers expires on January 30th for the US seminars. Paid-up Fullermoney subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.