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This article by Joshua Zumbrun and Craig Torres for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Nine of 17 Federal Reserve officials expect borrowing costs will remain below 1 percent at the end of 2014, with six officials expecting zero rates to remain into 2015.

Policy makers also lowered their estimates for growth and inflation in 2012, a move consistent with their statement earlier today that interest rates will remain exceptionally low through at least late 2014.

The projections by Federal Open Market Committee participants, released for the first time today in Washington, provide an unprecedented look at policy makers' plans for the path of the benchmark interest rate, which has remained near zero since December 2008. An increase in 2014 would mark the first rise in the fed funds rate since June 2006.

My view Today's twin announcements of the Fed's commitment to leave rates low for the foreseeable future and Apple's world beating earnings offer an interesting contrast. On the one hand the US economy is unlikely to grow as quickly as initially envisioned. On the other, Apple epitomises the success of the Autonomies. Globally oriented consumer focused companies dominating their respective niches are thriving in an environment where many domestically focused US and European companies are struggling.

US 30-year Treasuries had returned to test the lower side of their three-month range over the last couple of weeks and initially bounced emphatically following the Fed's statement. They subsequently gave up the majority of the advance and additional upside follow through tomorrow will be required to check current scope for additional downside.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Japan Manufacturing Exodus Large' Cause for Trade Concern This article by Cheng Herng Shinn for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Japan's exports fell for a third consecutive month in December, capping the first annual trade deficit since 1980.

Shipments dropped 8 percent last month from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said today in Tokyo. In addition to the export slump, energy imports rose after an earthquake and tsunami knocked out the Fukushima nuclear power plant, resulting in a 2011 deficit of 2.49 trillion yen ($32 billion).

The numbers highlight a shift toward imports that helped Tadashi Yanai, president of Fast Retailing Co., become Japan's richest man.

Yanai's Yamaguchi, Japan-based company, Asia's biggest clothing retailer, makes all its clothes overseas and imports them for sale in its home market. In an interview in November, he called the stronger yen a fatal blow to domestic manufacturing.

It's like saying, Don't do manufacturing in Japan, said Yanai, who was listed by Forbes Asia as Japan's richest man in 2010 and 2009, with a net worth of $9.2 billion as of last January.

Japan's currency strengthened to a postwar high of 75.35 against the U.S. dollar on Oct. 31 and traded at 77.98 as of 12:38 p.m. in Tokyo. The currency has gained 5.7 percent against the dollar in the past 12 months.

My view For a country which has long depended on a vibrant export sector rather than domestic consumption, the hollowing out of the manufacturing sector is an unwelcome development. However, this is far from a surprise. The strength of the Yen has been a headwind for quite some time. Companies have been warning about the repercussions for even longer, and the Bank of Japan has been half hearted in its efforts to weaken the currency. The challenges arising from the earthquakes and tsunami last year might have been enough to force hard decisions among Japan's corporates. With such a strong domestic currency exporters have little choice but to look at alternative ways of increasing competitiveness. They are embracing the route taken by many other globally oriented companies in availing of cheaper manufacturing outside of their domestic market.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Eoin's personal portfolio: natural gas long rolled forward My initial long in the February contract was sold this morning at $2.56 against my purchase at $2.69 on January 13 th . A new position was opened in the March contract at $2.62 including spread bet dealing costs.


Made in Britain Increases as Europe No. 4 With Nissan-Tata: Cars This article by Steve Rothwell for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The biggest threat to the U.K. production levels may be from fluctuations in the value of the euro versus the pound, said Peter Schmidt, managing director of Warwick, England-based Automotive Industry Data.

Sterling fell 38 percent against the euro between 2000 and 2010, making British products less expensive for Europeans, just as the proportion of U.K.-built cars that went for export rose from 65 percent to 76 percent, according to SMMT figures.

Toyota is effectively hedged because it buys parts from U.K. suppliers in euros, according to Walker. Graham Hoare, executive director of powertrain engineering at Ford, which last year built 1.7 million engines in Dagenham, London, and Bridgend, Wales, said that the opposite applies, with many components sourced from continental Europe, so that a weaker pound creates headwinds and makes it tougher to remain competitive.

If the euro were to founder it could lead to the closure of one U.K. plant after another, said Schmidt. Manufacturers cannot afford to make cars at a loss. Nobody can.

My view The UK's dependence on the financial sector and credit fuelled growth left it more exposed than most to the financial crisis. The most immediate casualty was the Pound. It crashed lower against a host of currencies, allowing the UK to get its devaluation in first. This proved an advantage and allowed British manufacturing to become considerably more competitive.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Speaking engagements in the USA - I have accepted an invitation to speak to the Los Angeles chapter of the MTA on April 11th. The venue has yet to be confirmed but will be in the Long Beach area. Non-members are welcome to attend. The topic will be "To Hoard or to Horde: risks and opportunities from participating with the crowd."

I have also accepted an invitation to speak to the San Diego chapter of the MTA in the first week of April. A date and time has yet to be fixed but it will take place in the Del Mar area.

I still have some space available on my itinerary. If you would like me to speak to your local chapter or organisation in California or New York please contact your respective chairperson and ask them to contact me.

The Chart Seminar 2012 - Following a sell-out tour to Singapore and Australia last year, The Chart Seminar will be held in San Francisco, New York and London this year. Please be aware that the early booking rate for non- subscribers at the US seminars expires on January 31st.

We are currently taking bookings for our San Francisco and New York dates in April as well as London seminars in May and November. Anyone interested in securing a place at any of our events should contact Sarah Barnes at sbarnes@fullermoney.com.

The date and venues for my seminars so far in 2012 are:

San Francisco - April 16th &17th 2012 Nikko Hotel

New York - April 23rd & 24th 2012 at The Manhattan Club (above Rosie O'Grady's) at 800 7th Avenue

London - May 25th & 25th 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire

London - November 22nd & 23rd 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire

The full rate is £950 + VAT. (Please note US delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). The early booking rate of £875 for non-subscribers expires on January 30th for the US seminars. Paid-up Fullermoney subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

Please note David is away today but will return tomorrow.