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This is an interesting article (may require subscription registration) by James Lamont for the Financial Times. Here is the opening:

India is to launch a $35bn wave of public sector investment to reverse a decline in the fast-growing economy's growth rate and return it closer to double digits, according to the prime minister's office.

The emergency stimulus measures are in response to widespread criticism of policy paralysis in New Delhi and a dramatic fall in economic growth to 7 per cent from an earlier 9 per cent.

The government of Manmohan Singh has ordered 17 state-owned companies to use money currently held in reserve to invest in a mixture of infrastructure projects and overseas energy purchases.

"They are sitting on piles of cash," said one official of the urgent need to trigger a mobilisation of currently "inactive" resources to boost confidence in the economy, and promote India's energy security.

The move is also an attempt to prompt private-sector companies - which have expressed reservations about investing in the domestic market - to follow suit. But some observers have criticised the move as a throwback to the "old formula" of the 1970s when then prime minister Indira Gandhi used public infrastructure spending to boost growth.

India's top policymakers are worried about the economy's loss of momentum, and ebbing business confidence after a dismal year characterised by political bickering, high profile corruption scandals and an exit of foreign capital.

My view - Something had to be done because India's national government has developed a reputation for bureaucratic incompetence, fatigue, inertia and corruption. Some observers, including Fullermoney, not to mention India's excellent free press and increasingly vocal middleclass, would rather see the government tackle these issues. Some fear a drift back into "old-style socialism."

This item continues in the Subscriber's Area.

(See also Eoin's review of relative strength leaders in India's stock market, posted below.)

Email of the day (1) - On whether or not to invest in these markets (from a pre-subscriber):

"To go against the advices of Rod Smyth from RiverFront and David Fuller from FullerMoney is a little bit foolish. Yet, I would not add a dime in these markets because America needs to raise this year $4 trillion in the capital market - $2.7 trillion in Treasury roll over and $1.3 trillion to cover this year's deficit. Europe needs to roll over more than €500 billion in the first half of 2012 alone. Under these circumstances, what will be left on the capital market for EM countries? If you have any doubts, read the late World Bank Report - http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/?p=540791 - in which this crowding-out theory could very well put at risk the financing needs of the 30 EM countries."

My comment - Thank you for this interesting email. The numbers you cite are sobering to the point of being mind-numbingly difficult for most of us even to comprehend. The debt crises and responses to them by governments and their central banks in the west are taking us down unfamiliar paths, with the risk of serious deflation on one side and unacceptably high inflation on the other side.

However, I mean no disrespect in suggesting that your view: "I would not add a dime in these markets…" which is held by many other investors, is a key reason why global stock markets have been recovering since last October. In other words, there is plenty of money on the sidelines and some of it is returning to the markets because perceptions have improved somewhat from the 'global collapse and depression' forecasts frequently heard in 2H 2011.

Additionally, since Austrian School methodology is not being applied by central banks, we can be reasonably certain that monetary policy will remain extremely accommodative for a considerable period. This is a tailwind for the shares of any companies which have balance sheets that are clearly much stronger than those of most governments. In a world of mostly low real interest rates, some of the excess liquidity will flow to equities with good earnings streams, especially if they also pay attractive dividends. Fullermoney has made these points repeatedly in recent months, as the Archives will testify.

Incidentally, Fullermoney does not advise, although we provide our views on a daily basis. With a global clientele, it would be a question of advice for whom? We think most investors do best when they have the tools and information to make their own considered decisions. The Fullermoney Global Strategy Service, with the help of our knowledgeable subscribers, provides some of that information. Our in-house speciality is behavioural technical analysis, which we teach and use to identify and monitor market trends.

Email of the day (2) - On uranium miners:

"Please see the excerpt below from an article in yesterday's Globe & Mail newspaper, from Canada, that can be supportive for uranium stocks:

"Encouraging comments from Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao this week at the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi buoyed uranium stocks. Mr. Jiabao highlighted China's intention to go strong on renewables and nuclear power as it limits the use of coal. China needs to fuel a potential 100 reactors by 2020 and has joined Cameco and Rio Tinto Group in seeking uranium assets, which has helped to offset the pessimism hanging over the industry since the Fukushima disaster in Japan last March." Very best to all of you"

My comment - Many thanks for this interesting item. I think China will surpass the USA in terms of nuclear power output within a decade.

Fullermoney's latest comments and reports on this sector were posted on Tuesday.

Today's interesting charts - Price chart action reveals the money flows.

Mexico's MEXBOL (weekly & daily) has been building support since its climactic August low and it is now breaking above range highs since November. Above its rising 200-day MA and currently one of the world's strongest stock markets, a close beneath 36,400 would now be required to question current scope for at least a test of the January 2011 all-time peak.

This item continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Email of the day (3) - More on "The rise of the New Groupthink":

"Wednesday's piece about working solo vs teamwork struck a chord. After decades in offices where I much enjoyed the camaraderie, I now work from home, and to my surprise not only have I found it an easy situation, but recently I have almost revelled in it. I spend a lot of time on my investment portfolio which is mainly small growth stocks listed in London. I chanced upon a link and found the heady world of discussion boards. The posts vary enormously but there are always timely nuggets of information and canny views which have transformed and fine tuned my trading. Posters like retired mining engineers and those who understand the pitfalls of fuel cell development mean that I know more about these stocks than I ever did in my years as a stockbroker in dealing rooms, where the background noise often led to indifferent investment.

"To me these boards are a revelation and life changing, allowing anyone to become a successful investor. Of course it takes some time to understand and ignore devious posts. My own investment method is to find a stock with an attractive story, and take a minimum position. Thereafter, the flow of news and the chart will help to decide whether to temporarily increase a position as much as ten fold to capitalise on the investment. Last year was very poor for AIM stocks, but this method got me a positive return.

"In the Fuller vein, I have always thought that part and parcel of investment is to have fun, and I have to say that it's certainly exciting right now.

"Here's to the year of the water dragon,"

My comment - Indeed, and to more fun.

As I recall, we first met in Hong Kong in the 1980s.

Thanks for the update and for sharing your methodology. Investment is a never ending and fascinating learning process for those of us who enjoy and therefore usually profit from the hands-on course.

"The Rise of the New Groupthink" clearly struck a cord with many of us.

Additional commentary by Eoin Treacy

Obama's Keystone Denial Prompts Canada to Look to China Sales This article by Theophilos Argitis and Jeremy Van Loon for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

President Barack Obama's decision yesterday to reject a permit for TransCanada Corp.'s Keystone XL oil pipeline may prompt Canada to turn to China for oil exports.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, in a telephone call yesterday, told Obama Canada will continue to work to diversify its energy exports, according to details provided by Harper's office. Canadian Natural Resource Minister Joe Oliver said relying less on the U.S. would help strengthen the country's financial security.

The decision by the Obama administration underlines the importance of diversifying and expanding our markets, including the growing Asian market, Oliver told reporters in Ottawa.

Currently, 99 percent of Canada's crude exports go to the U.S., a figure that Harper wants to reduce in his bid to make Canada a superpower in global energy markets.

Canada accounts for more than 90 percent of all proven reserves outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to data compiled in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Most of Canada's crude is produced from oil-sands deposits in the landlocked province of Alberta, where output is expected to double over the next eight years, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

Harper expressed his profound disappointment with the news, according to the statement, which added that Obama told Harper the rejection was not based on the project's merit and that the company is free to re-apply.

My view It is probably safe to assume that President Obama had his eye on November's election when he turned down the Keystone pipeline. After all, it is likely to be a tight race and the green lobby is a powerful demographic that helped him win last time out. The green lobby might argue that tar sands production is dirty, water intensive and emits a great deal of CO2 and they would be correct. However, they fail to identify that it is tar sands oil is also abundant, cost competitive at today's prices, shares a land border with the USA and is going to be exploited with or without the Keystone pipeline.

The decision was in essence one of whether the USA wants a slice of Canada's bounty or not. Yesterday's decision makes the prospect of a pipeline to British Columbia more likely. It is in Canada's long-term interests to diversify its customer base. They will probably now be more amenable to discussions with Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, Taiwan and Korea.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.


Email of the day (1) on yesterday's Comment of the Day:

Just want to thank both of you for the comment of the day dated Jan 18th. I appreciated very much the article David posted on "the rise of the group think" and Eoin's "leadership versus relative performance", which I have printed and filed for Future reference. All the best to both of you

My comment Thank you for your warm regards which we both appreciate and find inspiring.

Indian Rupee Climbs to Two-Month High as Economic Concern Eases This article by Jeanette Rodrigues for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The rupee, which dropped 16 percent last year in Asia's worst performance, has advanced 5.7 percent this month to be the region's biggest gainer. The sustainability of the rally will depend on euro-zone developments and economic data and policy guidance, both from home and abroad, according to BNP Paribas SA.

The market may have underpriced risks of the current account widening further, a poor fiscal deficit and bad loans at Indian banks, said Thio Chin Loo, a senior currency analyst at BNP Paribas in Singapore. Market sentiment can shift very quickly and at these levels, when the rupee is approaching 50, I wouldn't advise corporates to chase a stronger currency.

Exporters should look to convert their dollar earnings when the rupee hits 52 a dollar in the spot market, she said.

My view The Rupee dropped to a record low against the US Dollar in December as governance, corruption and interest rates concerns sapped investment demand. The decline coincided with the nadir of investor concern with the Eurozone and prompted repatriation of funds from a number of Asian markets. The Rupee has rallied emphatically over the last two weeks, as risk appetite has returned to the fore.

The commonality of the US Dollar's recent weakness, not only against the Rupee but also against a whole host of other currencies, supports the view that it may have reached a medium-term peak. While some distribution below the R54 area appears likely, a sustained move above that level would be required to suggest a return to Dollar demand dominance.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Two agriculture shares to watch Famers have had a positive few years with record prices achieved for meat, grains and beans. As with any bull market, producers think about how to capture more of the upside. For corn farmers in the USA this has meant investing in more storage capacity so they can liquidate inventory at their own pace. Elsewhere is has meant spending on machinery, irrigation and fertiliser.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Email of the day (2) on additions to the Chart Library:

Could you please add pgm.ax viz. Platina Resources Limited

My comment Thank you for this suggestion which has been added to the Chart Library.

Email of the day (3) - on an addition to the Chart Library:

Please add the VLE- Value Line Arithmetic Index to the chart library.

My comment Thank you for this suggestion. S&P stopped disseminating data for VLE in 2001. It has been replaced by the KVY which can be found in the Chart Library.

Speaking engagements in the USA - I have accepted an invitation to speak to the Los Angeles chapter of the MTA on April 11th. The venue has yet to be confirmed but will be in the Long Beach area. Non-members are welcome to attend. The topic will be "To Hoard or to Horde: risks and opportunities from participating with the crowd."

I have also accepted an invitation to speak to the San Diego chapter of the MTA in the first week of April. A date and time has yet to be fixed but it will take place in the Del Mar area.

I still have some space available on my itinerary. If youwould like me to speak to your local chapter or organisation in California or New York please contact your respective chairperson and ask them to contact me.

The Chart Seminar 2012 - Following a sell-out tour to Singapore and Australia last year, The Chart Seminar will be held in San Francisco, New York and London this year. Please be aware that the early booking rate for non- subscribers at the US seminars expires on January 31st.

We are currently taking bookings for our San Francisco and New York dates in April as well as London seminars in May and November. Anyone interested in securing a place at any of our events should contact Sarah Barnes at sbarnes@fullermoney.com.

The date and venues for my seminars so far in 2012 are:

San Francisco - April 16th &17th 2012 Nikko Hotel

New York - April 23rd & 24th 2012 at The Manhattan Club (above Rosie O'Grady's) at 800 7th Avenue

London - May 25th & 25th 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire

London - November 22nd & 23rd 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire

The full rate is £950 + VAT. (Please note US delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). The early booking rate of £875 for non-subscribers expires on January 30th for the US seminars. Paid-up Fullermoney subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.