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This is a very good column by Philip Stephens (may require subscription registration) for the Financial Times. Here is the opening:

You could say that Europe has crises enough without worrying too much about a Hungarian dissident turned petty tyrant. Hungary, after all, is not even a member of the euro. To overlook Viktor Orban's journey from anti-communist progressive to populist xenophobe would, however, be to repeat a mistake made about Greece. The troubles of Europe's small powers can be a harbinger of bigger dangers around the corner.

Hungary's prime minister presents a reminder - should anyone on this continent need one - of the familiar trajectory from economic chaos to political authoritarianism. The European Union has had two grand projects since the fall of the Berlin Wall: the single currency and the advance of democracy eastwards. The euro is now in serious trouble. Mr Orban sends a powerful message about the perils facing democracy.

This week saw the introduction of Mr Orban's new constitution. Suffused with ethnic nationalism, it reeks of an ambition for one-party rule. It promises repression of personal freedoms within Hungary and, through an extension of citizenship to Hungarian minorities elsewhere, threatens instability in ethnically-diverse neighbours.

The constitution has to be seen alongside a slew of new basic laws and the gerrymandering of the electoral system. Together, they bestow inordinate power on the ruling Fidesz party. The prime minister can claim to have won the 2010 election fairly. Now he is deploying a two-thirds majority in parliament to deny opponents the same possibility.

My view - The Eurozone crisis is not just about a half completed currency union among 17 member states and a sovereign debt crisis. A strong Western Europe is needed to resume and sustain the process of democratisation in Eastern Europe.

Informed video on forthcoming corn report - This item is in the Subscriber's Area.


Emails of the day (1 - 5) - On Friday's Audio (from five different continents):

"I have been a subscriber for many many years. I too have been in semi retirement since one year, and enjoy your audios a lot since I now have more time to follow them. Even if your audio was considered too long, I thought the way the comment about the length of the Friday audio was rude. I liked your dignified reply. Thanks again, and keep up the good work."

And:

"I note your subscriber's apparent frustrations concerning the length of your recent Friday audio. I'd like to express a contrary view. As a semi-retired investor who is simply trying to make the most of his pension assets, I find your occasional more lengthy ruminations valuable just because they are reflective.. Sometimes it's just useful to sense what is going on in your mind as well as to receive the raw facts demanded by your subscriber. And I expect the weekend audio to be longer. Today, I sense that you have been trying to satisfy this subscriber as you ended you Monday piece rather abruptly. I realise you can't satisfy everybody, but I too have listened to almost all your audios since I became a subscriber and I find them immensely helpful. Even though you inevitably repeat some themes from day to day, I need this for them to sink in. So, for me at least, keep your thoughts coming in whatever way feels appropriate."

And:

"Just writing to urge you not to cut the audios short in future, in case you were thinking of doing so in response to today's email. I find them invaluable and the longer they are better as far as I am concerned. I am also busy, but I listen while doing something else such as commuting, cycling, running, walking or cooking."

And:

"Hello David. On Friday Audio: Not to labour the point but I remember on Saturday thinking what a great edition of the Big Picture Outlook. I was still mentally chewing over the content during dinner that evening, much to the chagrin of the lady I was with. Anyway, your and Eoin's audios are an essential and enjoyable part of the daily routine in my book."

And:

"I would recommend the subscriber unhappy with your latest long audio (comment of the day Jan 9, email of the day #1) to listen to you on an iphone, where one can x 2 the speed at which the file is played (thus, your audio of 44 minutes became 22 or so, with a very acceptable pace). Alternatively, the file duration is always displayed and one can choose not to listen should he have no time to do so… This said, your audios are very valuable and a manageable duration (20 minutes or less) is always appreciated!"

My comment - Many thanks and I promise no more email postings on this subject. I selected these five because most mention different forms of multitasking; they express a preference for the more lengthy Friday Audios, and they were sent from five different continental regions: Asia, Australia, Europe, North America and South America. Fullermoney is a global service in terms of subscribers in addition to market coverage.

The Friday Audios are intentionally longer because from almost the beginning of these recordings subscribers requested a quick review of the week followed by a big picture, long-term outlook. Given time constraints, all the Fullermoney Audios are inevitably unscripted and unrehearsed. Recorded at the end of our working day to be up-to-date, daily Audios should be reasonably articulate and sequential in their coverage of various markets. This is seldom easy and I am well aware that the quality of content and delivery can vary considerably. Nevertheless, Audios are the most efficient means for us to provide more coverage in less time than in any other format.

In defence of Email 1 yesterday, we live in an era of information overload and time is precious. None of us enjoy activities in which we feel we are wasting time. I personally like the idea of multitasking because it usually saves time. If I am catching up on financial news in the morning and assessing overnight sentiment, I will do it while working out in my home gym most days. If I am watching a film or the news in the evening with Mrs Fuller, I like to combine it with some small task other than eating. Her leisure time multitasking often includes playing Scrabble on her iPad, against herself as no one else in the family can compete at the same standard. If reading at home, which usually requires my full concentration, I may invite a heat seeking cat into my lap provided it is in quiet mode.


Email of the day (6) - More on China:

"I see you have not increased any of your Chinese investments yet. With the strength in recent days, I wonder if you are considering to do so. And if you are, what would you invest in? Thanks in advance."

My comment - My most recent purchase in my personal long-term equity investment portfolio

This detailed item continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Deepak Lalwani's India Report - My thanks to the author for his informative report. It is posted in the Subscriber's Are but here is a brief sample:

So, will food deflation for the first time in over 6 years influence a cut in interest rates on January 24? It is too early to say because fuel inflation on the other hand accelerated to 14.6% from 14.3%. November factory output data is due on January 12 and the headline inflation figure on the 16th. The focus has definitely shifted to stimulating economic growth, rather than taming inflation. The trend for interest rates is lower hereon; but will be calibrated as inflation is watched to see if it falls on a sustainable basis. Moving forward from now we also anticipate a much softer tone on inflation, and a more accomodative stance on lowering interest rates, from the RBI as it attempts to revive economic growth.

My view - India needs an extensive redevelopment of its farming, food storage and transport facilities if it is to lower permanently its inflation risk.

This item continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Additional commentary by Eoin Treacy

Argos Proves Loser in U.K. as Wal-Mart Gains With Amazon: Retail This is article by Sarah Shannon for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

According to Legal & General's Black, Argos's very large liabilities on store leases are also a concern. The operating lease charge was 366 million pounds in the last year, according to a first-half statement in October.

Nomura's Walker said Duddy should consider scaling back the number of outlets to contain costs. It's a big cost base; you should be looking to reduce that store portfolio over time, he said. Management still think each store is contributing and profitable, which isn't a cash positive decision, he said.

Home Retail had net cash of 200.5 million pounds at the end of the first half ended Aug. 27, and isn't indebted like retailers such as HMV Group Plc.

Adding more branded items that shoppers recognize at Argos may help improve its fortunes, according to John Guy, an analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. The chain sells 1,500 own- brand items such as Chad Valley toys, Alba consumer electronics, Bush televisions, and Hygena and Schreiber furniture.

Argos needs to shift the product mix; people don't buy electronics that are own-brand as much these days, Guy said. The emphasis continues to shift in favor of branded goods with more males than females making the final purchase decisions. Own-labels aren't selling as well as they used to.

My view The USA's retail environment has favoured discount offerings as consumers traded down. Luxury retailers have also prospered, suggesting middle income earners have been squeezed most following the credit crisis. The UK appears to have followed a broadly similar pattern though this is more difficult to demonstrate with charts because a number of the UK's larger retailers are unlisted. Primark, Arcadia Group, House of Fraser, Selfridges and Boots are all privately held.

The FTSE-350 General Retailers Index has been largely rangebound since late 2009 and recently retested the lower boundary near 1500. While currently staging at least a short-term rally, it will need to sustain a move above 1600 to suggest more than a temporary return to demand dominance.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.


Email of the day (1) on long-term Platinum prices and South African power cuts:

Your comments yesterday on Platinum and it's ratio to the gold price may well prove to be timely. Only this morning in many South African newspapers [where I have now retired] there comes a warning of rolling power cuts by the state power utility Eskom. This has come about apparently for two reasons. Much more time having to be spent on maintenance coupled with an ever expanding demand for power. This country is the classic example of not having forward planning regarding investment in infrastructure.

Two new coal fired power stations will not be due on stream until 2015 and 2017, and I suspect the way things are going they will not be commissioned on time. Public debate on nuclear here is very much skewed against the idea unfortunately."

My comment Thank you for this informative email. This article from Bloomberg by Carli Lourens carries some additional detail. Here is a section:

Eskom is building new coal-fired power plants and restarted inactive ones to avoid a repeat of the January 2008 blackouts that temporarily shut mines and halted work in factories in Africa's largest economy. BHP Billiton Ltd., Xstrata Plc and Anglo American Plc's aluminum, ferrochrome and Platinum smelters are among the largest electricity users.

While Eskom isn't planning a repeat of 2008 forced rolling power cuts now, it's asking large customers to voluntarily reduce usage, as it has done at times over the past year, Joffe said. Eskom is also using its more expensive gas-fired plants now to generate electricity, she said.

A shortage of coal, the fuel used to fire most of Eskom's power plants, contributed to the 2008 blackouts. The South African Weather Service forecasts an at least 30 percent chance of rain for Witbank, the heart of South Africa's main coal- production region, for each of the six days from today, it said on its website.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Email of the day (2) on historic copper prices:

Great to finally be able to see the long term prices for Platinum. Would Eoin be able to provide similar data for copper?"

My comment Thank you for this request which I'm sure others will have an interest in. I have emailed the investor relations departments of a number of copper miners to request this data. However, if subscribers have access to historic copper prices, regardless of format, I would be delighted to produce some relevant charts.


Orange Juice Soars Most Since 2006 on Florida-Crop Frost Damage This article by Marvin G. Perez and Yi Tian for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Orange juice jumped due to the frigid weather that permanently damaged some of the crops here, Jim Garasz, a principal at Transworld Futures in Tampa, Florida, said today in a telephone interview. And there's more cold weather coming in here late tomorrow. That spooks the market.

Orange juice for March delivery jumped the 20-cent exchange limit, or 11 percent, to $2.0775 a pound at 11:34 a.m. on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, the highest since March 2007. A close at that price would mark the biggest gain since October 2006 and leave the commodity up 23 percent this month.

The market is starting to factor in that maybe there was more to the damage than initially thought, Michael Smith, the president of T&K Futures and Options in Port St. Lucie, Florida, said in a telephone interview.

My view Orange Juice was limit up today and yesterday in both the March and May contracts. Prices had rebounded relatively well following the deeper pullback posted in July and hit a new recovery high today. Frost damage has historically had a dramatic impact on orange juice prices and the market is capable of moving its limit on consecutive sessions as we have just seen.

This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.


Email of the day (3) on an interesting graphic:

Keeping things in perspective

My comment Thank you for this graphic which puts the size of the Eurozone's potential debt problem in perspective. It should also be noted that most of the Eurozone's debt is held by Eurozone counterparties. This means the problem can be solved but will require much greater cooperation between the respective countries, banks and pension funds.

Speaking engagements in the USA I was invited to speak to the members of the Technical Analysis Society Singapore and the Australian Technical Analysts Association on my tour with The Chart Seminar last year. In fact, it was a subscriber, who is also an ATAA member, who suggested the tour in the first place.

I will be in southern California for approximately 10 days before driving up to San Francisco for The Chart Seminar. I will also be in New York for a few days before the New York Seminar. If you are a member of a local MTA chapter in those areas and/or a member of the TSAASF or AAPTA and interested in having me come speak to your association I still have space on my itinerary and would be happy to make time.

The Chart Seminar 2012 Following a sell-out tour to Singapore and Australia last year, The Chart Seminar will be held in San Francisco, New York and London this year. Please be aware that the early booking rate for non- subscribers at the US seminars expires on January 31st.

We are currently taking bookings for our San Francisco and New York dates in April as well as London seminars in May and November. Anyone interested in securing a place at any of our events should contact Sarah Barnes at sbarnes@fullermoney.com.

The date and venues for my seminars so far in 2012 are:

San Francisco - April 16th &17th 2012 Nikko Hotel

New York - April 23rd & 24th 2012 at The Manhattan Club at 800 7th Avenue

London - May 25th & 25th 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire

London - November 22nd & 23rd 2012 at the Radisson Edwardian Hampshire

The full rate is £950 + VAT. (Please note US delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). The early booking rate of £875 for non-subscribers expires on January 30th for the US seminars. Paid-up Fullermoney subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.