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Markets in good humour into the weekend

Last updated: 09:35 10 Apr 2015 BST, First published: 08:35 10 Apr 2015 BST

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FTSE100 called to open +19pts at 7037, having moved up above 7000 again yesterday afternoon. Can it stay there this time? Potential for a bullish flag pattern to take the index above previous all-time highs before the weekend. Support currently holding around 7030. Watch levels: Bullish 7060, Bearish 6950.

 

The positive open comes as part of a global wave of positive Thursday performances on the back of an oil price recovery that helped energy stocks. The IMF confirmed overnight that Greece had indeed made its payment of €450M, meeting yesterday’s deadline, with Lagarde adding that talks must continue to address the very bad economic situation in the indebted nation that is increasingly looking elsewhere in the world for friends. Creditors will be concerned about any role Russia may play in Greece’s rescue.

 

US stocks closed marginally higher on Thursday after a good jobless claims report but were weighed on by the surge in the US Dollar Basket that has flattened of this morning but looks like it will resume its upward surge. This is seen by economists as being somewhat of a headwind to US economic growth, with implications for both Q1 GDP and a mid-year interest rate rise. The dollar has strengthened 20% against the Euro and 18% against the Yen in the past 12-months.

 

Asian Bourses were positive overnight with Japan’s Nikkei climbing up above 12000 for the first time in 15 years as the US Dollar pounded other global currencies, not least the Yen, before pulling back on profit taking to settle around 19937. Hong Kong’s hang Seng index shows no sign of letting up as it posted its highest level since Jan 2008 in what has been a 3-day rally this week. The surge began after Beijing relaxed its rules for mainland investors, allowing them to buy into the ‘bargain’ Hong Kong market as opposed to the overbought Mainland indices. Nonetheless, encouraging CPI and PPI data overnight helped the Shanghai Composite to limit the damage done by the investor exodus.

 

In focus today we have UK industrial and manufacturing production, both expected to post lower growth YoY, followed this afternoon by Canada’s unemployment data. This evening sees the US Baker Hughes Rig Count and Monthly Budget Statement.

 

US Light Crude ($51) and the Brent benchmark ($57) are stable this morning having spiked yesterday – with positive implications for the markets – in what has been a volatile week for the commodity. Oil prices have gone up for three out of four trading sessions with investors keeping a close eye on US and OPEC oil production, unrest in the Middle East and the Iranian nuclear deal, which could see the market flooded with yet more crude.

 

Gold ($1194) is trading around support at $1193 having come back from April highs $1224. The dollar denominated price has, however, remained relatively resilient against a flying US Dollar basket that will be weighing heavily on safe haven demand from those using different currencies. Analysts are expecting 2016 to be a good year for gold once global monetary easing translates into inflation.


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