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Proactive Investors • View topic - the Federal Reserve - one viewpoint

the Federal Reserve - one viewpoint

The value of the US $, and it's implications for the world economy, discussion thread.

the Federal Reserve - one viewpoint

Postby andy on Sun Apr 29, 2007 7:52 am

The Federal Reserve Monopoly Over Money

by Congressman Ron Paul

Recently I had the opportunity to question Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke when he appeared before the congressional Joint Economic committee. The topic that morning was the state of the American economy, and many of my colleagues raised questions about how the Fed might better "regulate" things to ease fears of an economic downturn. The tenor of my colleagues' questions suggested that Mr. Bernanke's job is nothing less than to run the U.S. economy, like some kind of Soviet central planner.

Certainly it's true that Mr. Bernanke can drastically affect the economy at the drop of a hat, simply by making decisions about the money supply and interest rates. But why do members of Congress assume this is good? Why do we accept without objection that a small group of people on the Federal Reserve Board wields so much power over our economic well-being? Is centralized, monopoly control over our money even compatible with a supposedly free-market economy?

Few Americans give much thought to the Federal Reserve System or monetary policy in general. But even as they strive to earn a living, and hopefully save or invest for the future, Congress and the Federal Reserve Bank are working insidiously against them. Day by day, every dollar you have is being devalued.

The greatest threat facing America today is not terrorism, or foreign economic competition, or illegal immigration. The greatest threat facing America today is the disastrous fiscal policies of our own government, marked by shameless deficit spending and Federal Reserve currency devaluation. It is this one-two punch Congress spending more than it can tax or borrow, and the Fed printing money to make up the difference that threatens to impoverish us by further destroying the value of our dollars.

The Feds inflationary policies hurt older people the most. Older people generally rely on fixed incomes from pensions and Social Security, along with their savings. Inflation destroys the buying power of their fixed incomes, while low interest rates reduce any income from savings. So while Fed policies encourage younger people to over-borrow because interest rates are so low, they also punish thrifty older people who saved for retirement.

The financial press sometimes criticizes Federal Reserve policy, but the validity of the fiat system itself is never challenged. Both political parties want the Fed to print more money, either to support social spending or military adventurism. Politicians want the printing presses to run faster and create more credit, so that the economy will be healed like magic or so they believe.

Fiat dollars allow us to live beyond our means, but only for so long. History shows that when the destruction of monetary value becomes rampant, nearly everyone suffers and the economic and political structure becomes unstable. Spendthrift politicians may love a system that generates more and more money for their special interest projects, but the rest of us have good reason to be concerned about our monetary system and the future value of our dollars.

Congressman Ron Paul of Texas enjoys a national reputation as the premier advocate for liberty in politics today. Dr. Paul is the leading spokesman in Washington for limited constitutional government, low taxes, free markets, and a return to sound monetary policies based on commodity-backed currency. His latest book, A Foreign Policy of Freedom, can be purchased from the Mises Institute.

US debt as @ 09:00 29th April 2007.


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US Debt clock and website of associated links and articles ; http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
andy
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Telegraph article

Postby andy on Sun Apr 29, 2007 8:05 am

andy
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US $ falls v Euro again!

Postby andy on Mon Apr 30, 2007 1:03 pm

Stagflation on the Horizon as Dollar Hits New Low

By Stephen Clayson
29 Apr 2007 at 02:58 PM GMT-04:00


LONDON (ResourceInvestor.com) -- The value of the dollar sank to a record low against the euro on Friday on the back of poor U.S. economic growth numbers combined with evidence that inflationary pressure in the U.S. economy continues to build.

Growth in the U.S. economy decreased to 1.3% in the first quarter of this year, compared with 2.5% in the final quarter of last year. Growth is now at its slowest in four years. At the same time the personal consumption expenditures index, a widely watched inflation gauge for the U.S. economy, increased 2.2% in the first quarter - above the 2% maximum that the Federal Reserve is likely to be comfortable with.




This puts the Fed between a rock and a hard place with regard to interest rate policy. A cut in interest rates will undermine the dollar and increase inflationary pressure by causing import costs to increase. On the other hand, an interest rate rise will help control inflation but will strangle economic growth.

In addition, protectionist measures targeting goods from China being proposed by some U.S. lawmakers will make inflation worse if they are implemented, as any increase in import costs due to tariffs or other measures will eventually be passed onto domestic consumers in the form of higher prices.

Would imports be discouraged? Perhaps, but any effect involves a time lag, and there are only some goods now imported that could be economically produced in the U.S. even with the aid of protectionist rules. Not to mention that higher cost production in the U.S. would again add to inflationary pressure. More likely anyway is that any shift in procurement would simply be to suppliers from another foreign country, but even this incurs costs that will be passed on to consumers and contribute to inflation.

Consensus opinion currently seems to favour falling rates in the U.S., with weakness in the housing market a particularly strong motivator for a rate cut, but at the same time it would be unwise to underestimate the Fed?s zeal for combating inflation.

Although the U.S. economy is weakening, the Fed could still prioritise inflation control, but it may come under quiet pressure from the current U.S. administration to delay any counter-inflationary rate hikes until after the next presidential elections.

As well as the falling dollar, inflation is being fed by sustained high oil prices and the end of the period of falling prices for manufactures that was created by China?s entry into the world economic system.

Inflation has been held in check for some years by the latter, but now that the holiday is over, the arrival of high oil prices, ironically due in large part to increasing Chinese demand, and the weakening dollar means that the U.S. economy is now subject to a three pronged inflation threat.

There is an ever present threat to the dollar of diversification towards other currencies by current large holders; exporters in East Asia and to a less extent the petrostates, mostly in the Middle East. The most important dollar holder is China, but the beginning of substantial diversification by any significant holder will likely trigger a rush out of the dollar and towards alternatives.

The value of the greenback would plummet in response and the cost of imports to the U.S. would rise, making inflation the most pressing economic issue facing the country bar none. Then the Fed would really have a conundrum on its hands - cut rates to support the economy but guarantee runaway inflation, or hike rates to control inflation and end up with stagflation, in other non-existent growth with high inflation. Not a very nice choice to have to make.
andy
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Location: Poole / London

Postby Tardder7 on Wed May 23, 2007 11:19 pm

US housing market worsening apparently.

No easy way put of this mess!
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